Did Israel's air raids decimate the backbone of Iran's ballistic missile industry?

After Iran downplayed the impact of Israel's Saturday air raids, reports claim the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) jets struck dozens of targets in Iran that were producing solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles.

Despite stating it was "entitled and obligated" to defend itself after Israel's air strikes, Tehran soft-pedalled the impact and said "enemy planes were prevented from entering the country's airspace" and the attack only "caused limited damage". The strikes were conducted from Syrian and Iraqi air space, some of them close to the Iraqi border with Iran.

However, a report that appeared in US-based Axios said the IDF jets attacked a critical component of Iran's ballistic missile programme. It said the 12 "planetary mixers" used to produce solid fuels were targetted by the IDF. This sophisticated equipment was something Iran could not produce on its own and must have purchased from China, the report added, stating that its renewed production may take at least a year.

While Iran or Israel has not confirmed this, a senior US official told Axios that the strike cripples Iran's missile production capability. Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank, also confirmed to Reuters that Israel also hit Khojir, a sprawling missile production site near Tehran.

Though Iran still has a big stockpile of ballistic missiles, the attack would limit its ability to replenish the ballistic missile stockpiles of its proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Israeli sources stated that four S300 air defence batteries were attacked in the operation. These were placed in strategic locations that protected Tehran and nuclear and energy facilities in Iran. The IDF raids also destroyed air-defence systems set up to protect several critical oil and petrochemical refineries but avoided the facilities themselves. Iran has also confirmed that none of the country’s oil facilities were damaged.

The sources said the Israeli air force attacked a factory for the production of drones and conducted a "symbolic" strike on a facility in the city of Parchin that was used in the past for the research and development of nuclear weapons.

Though Iran has confirmed that several of its radar systems were damaged in the attack and were being repaired, it did not mention any damage to missile or drone production sites.

Biden on Israeli retaliation

US President Joe Biden said Saturday that Israel has hit just military targets. "It looks like they didn’t hit anything other than military targets," he told reporters, adding that he hoped they were "the end".

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin too warned Tehran against responding to Israel’s strikes. Stating that he urged Israel to de-escalate tensions in the region, Austin added: "Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel’s strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange."