With the new international political climate prevalent across the world, we are all increasingly becoming global citizens. As geopolitical and macroeconomic decisions impact economies across boundaries, information is our best way to understand what comes ahead and prepare for it. One such anchor event is the presidential elections in one of the most influential territories in the world, the United States of America.
When reporting news and information from the US regarding the elections, US outlets often speak of “swing states”. Let us see what they are and how they impact the presidential polls.
What is a swing state?
The US has a federal system of government made up of 50 states and the District of Columbia, where two parties primarily compete for the title of POTUS. Unlike a union structure in India, states in the US have sovereign jurisdictions too. The Tenth Amendment to the US Constitution gave US states the power to exercise any government functions that are not delegated to the federal government.
Therefore, states have more power, and they decide the political structure of the country. A swing state is a state that can go to either party, and they become focal battlegrounds where the presidential candidates focus their campaigning energy. Their opposite, the safe states, are usually determined by opinion polls leading up to the election. They are rarely prioritised during the election campaign.
States or Electoral College: what decides the winner?
Much like the Indian system of Lok Sabha elections that determine our ruling party and, therefore, who our Prime Minister would be, the US has a parallel system to India’s concept of constituencies distributed among the states. They are called the Electoral College.
However, the Electoral College is not a physical concept but rather just a process that is kept in place to determine who wins the presidency. The US Electoral College has 538 electors, and the presidential candidate needs a 270 majority in electoral votes to win.
To make up the Electoral College, the electoral votes are allocated among the 50 states. Each state gets a number of “electoral votes” equal to the number of senators and representatives in the US Congress. Over and above them, the District of Columbia is treated like a state for all electoral college-related things and allocated three electors.
In total, senators in the US Senate get two votes for the state they hail from, and the number of votes is equal to the number of its congressional districts. For 2024, the popular vote results of the general election from each state will decide which party gets to choose the president and their team. But it needn’t be so every election. The states can pass laws to determine who the electors are, as long as the law is enacted before the poll day.
Within each state, systems are a bit different. Most states employ a winner-takes-all approach. This means that the electoral votes all go to the winner in the state’s popular vote. However, two states—Nebraska and Maine—appoint two electors based on winners from each Congressional district and two appointed from popular votes like the other states.
These two states rarely exhibit a split vote, but they recently did so. Both Maine and Nebraska in 2020, Maine in 2016, and Nebraska in 2008.
Donald Trump won in 2016 by bagging just enough votes in major electoral college states. With just 77,000 votes more, Trump sealed his victory by edging Pennsylvania (by 44,292 votes), Wisconsin (by 22,748 votes), and Michigan (by 10,704 votes). Fast forward to 2020, Joe Bien won with a minute margin of 44,000 votes thanks to the states of Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. If not, it would have been a 269-to-269 tie, triggering a reelection.
How will the Swing States vote?
The 2024 race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is now being heralded as one of the tightest contests. Therefore, the result will most probably be determined by the eight swing states.
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
With 19 votes, Pennsylvania is the wing state to watch for! Since 1988, the state has always voted Democrat. However, the streak came to an abrupt end, with Donald Trump winning in 2016. Biden fought it back in 2020, but it is still on shaky ground. For Democrats to win, they need higher voter turnout. This might go Kamala Harris’ way in 2024, as per the latest poll trends.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Georgia has 16 votes due to its population rising. In 2020, Trump lost by just a bit more than 11,500 votes. However, before this, the state had always voted Republican since Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory. Georgia will have a massive impact on who determines the president.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
North Carolina, with 16 votes, is a dangerous place for Democrats. Obama won it in 2008, the first time since 1976, but lost it in the reelection. Trump won the past two elections here. Democrats are hoping that an increase in the number of youngsters, especially students, would tip the state in their favour. But historically, the state has swung to Trump.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Michigan is what you call a classic swing state. Trump won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. However, before that, it was predominantly Democratic, with only Bush Sr’s 1988 feat as the lone republican victory in recent elections. After that, Michigan voted blue from 1992 through 2012.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Former Republican fort, Arizona, began its shift when it elected Bill Clinton in 1996 reelection. Biden won in 2020 with just a bit more than 10,400 votes, and signs point to Trump winning if supporters of former senator John McCain unite to tow the party line. However, it stands on thin ice for the state that is famous for the Grand Canyon.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
In the latest judicial election back in April, the state voted against conservatives. If the trend tracks, Trump might have a hard time clawing Wisconsin from Harris. Back in 2020, Biden barely won. So, the state is still ripe for picking.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Desert state Nevada has been blue for the past four presidencies. However, Republicans have lost the state just by a whisker each time, giving it swing status. However, the rising urban population and dwindling rural numbers could point to one more victory for Democrats.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
New Hampshire could become an upsetting battleground if it moves to red, given how major Republican veterans are back on the scenes. Historically, Democrats bagged the state since 2000, but the latest victory by Biden was just too close for comfort.
The impending election results in the US will have a reverberatory impact on developing economies of the East. With a past track record of anti-Indian policies by Trump and the fact that Harris is of Indian origin makes this election quite a spectacle for the country. US Election results will be out in the days following the counting starting November 5, 2024.