America's policy toward India will remain virtually the same regardless of who wins the US presidential election on Tuesday, but the two candidates will follow different styles in dealing with New Delhi. Former president Donald Trump will be rough and tumble, and Vice President Kamala Harris will be kinder and gentler.
Trump, the Republican nominee, will pursue a direct and no-nonsense, individualistic approach. Harris, the Democratic candidate, will continue President Joe Biden's multilateralism in which India will play a pivotal role. Overall, the businessman instincts will guide the former president, while a politician's mindset will dictate the vice president.
From Washington's perspective, India-US relations boil down to two main elements: trade and defense. Both Trump and Harris will follow the current US policy, which seeks to keep India on America's side to contain China and extract as much trade concession as possible from New Delhi.
On defense, both Trump and Harris will chant the “America uber alles” mantra. Harris favors a long-term strategy involving India against China. How Trump will act is anybody's guess—his blitzkrieg decision-making may tempt him to go solo and cut a deal even with a not-so-friendly party if it serves America's interest.
With India, Trump will seek quick and lofty deals to erase what he perceives to be unfair trade practices. He has been grumpy about them, even after New Delhi's concessions in recent years. Harris favors a robust, stable trade regime to ensure both nations benefit from their cooperation in trade and investment.
'India counterbalance to China'
Just before Trump left office, the Trump administration made public a secret document, 'Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific', which showed the former president attached importance to India because “a strong India, in cooperation with like-minded countries, would act as a counterbalance to China.”
Trump will, however, go easy on security for economic benefits. He sees no danger to America's global leadership because its mighty war machine rules the waves. Harris values India's strategic partnership more than trade. Trump stresses pragmatism, and Harris follows ideology.
One can have a glimpse into their thinking from their views on the Ukraine-Russia war. Trump wants Ukraine to start talks with Russia based on current front lines. He wants Kiev to delay its plan to join NATO for at least 10 years, and he will ease sanctions on Russia if Moscow guarantees Ukraine's security.
In contrast, Harris pushes Kiev to keep fighting until taking back its Russian-held land. She thinks Ukraine's neutrality and delay of NATO membership mean surrender to Russia. She opposes direct Washington-Moscow talks to end the war. In a nutshell, Harris appears more hawkish than Trump, and a Harris administration will see India's ties with China and Russia from this mindset.
India's closeness to Russia will be a thorny issue for Washington, more so under Harris than Trump. India's recent gesture toward Ukraine indicates its flexibility with its Cold War ally, but Washington's view that India solidly backs Russia has not changed. Biden wants Russian President Vladimir Putin gone, a view Harris shares. Trump is all right with Putin in the Kremlin.
Trump's policies on trade will clash with those of nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite Trump's ideological affinity with Modi, the former president will press on with his 'America First' policy on trade. However, both sides have exercised caution and shown willingness to work together, mainly because they have set their eyes on the prize—to tame China's global ambitions.
Trump's India trade war
Trump is flexible and loves to make deals, traits that suit Modi very well. Yet, Trump has signaled his trade policy with India will be harsh. He called India an abuser of import taxes in September. In 2020, he named India “Tariff King,” and vowed to retaliate, if re-elected.
In 2019, Trump ended India’s favorable trade status that had given Indian products duty-free access to the US market. He railed against Delhi, saying India had not given US goods “equitable and reasonable access” to its market.
“Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,’’ Trump said, describing himself as a “Tariff Man.”
Harris dismisses Trump's tariff threats as campaign rhetoric. His tariffs will cost a typical American family $4,000 a year.
On defense, Trump seems a bit dovish. When Delhi bought Russian SAM missiles in 2018, Washington threatened sanctions, but he ultimately avoided them, considering India's importance as a counterweight to China. He will also look more kindly to India's closeness to Russia because the former president, too, has a soft corner for Putin.
Harris differs from Trump on India-Russia coziness. After India refused to condemn Russia's war on Ukraine, the Biden administration revived Trump's sanction threat, prompting India to charge America as untrustworthy. Washington questioned India's reliability after Delhi backed Putin in the Ukraine war.
In April 2022, the Biden administration changed its tune, promising the two countries would continue their “close consultations” on Russia and never mentioned its previous threat to punish Delhi. Biden termed the US ties with India as “one of the defining relationships of the 21st Century.”
Early in 2023, Senate Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, led a bipartisan delegation of nine senators to New Delhi. Upon his return, he made it clear “the United States should deepen our relationship with India if we want to out-compete the Chinese Communist Party in this century.”
Expect to hear the same from Harris.
Indo-US defense spat
Even as India and America continued to deepen ties, a diplomatic spat brewed in 2021 after the US Navy destroyer, USS John Paul Jones, passed through India's economic zone without Delhi's consent. Washington cited freedom of navigation to justify its action.
US-India cooperation has progressed fast on several fronts, but it still faces obstacles. Even if the Ukraine-Russia fight ends, Washington will closely watch the recent India-China pact to ease border tensions.
America will monitor if India relaxes its anti-China posture. Of course, a lot depends on how this engagement blooms. Yet, there is fear in Washington that India might be less cozy with Uncle Sam if it gets closer to Beijing. The trust factor soured Indo-US relations, even when Britain ruled India.
During World War II, when many Indians expected Japan to occupy India, the United States sent a mission to gauge India's defense production capabilities at Delhi's request. India's news media blasted the mission.
Infuriated, the State Department demanded an explanation from G.S. Bajpai, India's agent-general in Washington (India had no ambassador then because it was not sovereign.) Bajpai blamed India's industrialists, who saw Yankee imperialism coming.
Today, India's industrialists will react based on the success or failure of India and China to restore normal ties. Even if the two Asian giants succeed in reviving their Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai kinship of the 1950s, Indians will prefer to be in both Beijing and Washington. They will remain suspicious of China for quite some time.
India-China amity will be all right with Trump, as long as he gets from Beijing what he loses in India. He will count his pennies to see if he comes out a winner in the aggregate. However, Trump's thinking is not Washington's thinking. Harris is more in line with Washington. Her ideology puts global hegemony over economic nationalism. She will seek to align Uncle Sam with India to ensure America continues to rule the waves.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.
