The election of Senator John Thune of South Dakota as the new Senate Majority Leader could complicate President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda as the GOP assumes control of Congress in January. In a competitive and highly watched internal race, Thune, 63, who is in his fourth term in the upper house, defeated Senators John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, with Scott representing the MAGA wing of the party. Thune’s election on November 13 by secret ballot signals a preference for a more traditional, institutional approach to governance, potentially signalling friction between the Senate and Trump as the latter seeks to consolidate power.
The race to replace Mitch McConnell, who is retiring as the Republican leader after 18 years in the role, has been intense. McConnell's leadership style, characterised by his mastery of Senate procedures and his ability to maintain party discipline, has often put him at odds with Trump, especially after the January 6 Capitol riots. Thune, who has served as McConnell’s deputy, was seen as the logical heir to continue the legacy of pragmatic leadership. However, Thune's ascension was not universally supported. Trump’s supporters, including high-profile figures like Florida Senator Rick Scott, believed that a more loyal figure to the president was needed to steer the party forward.
Thune’s victory over Scott, who was championed by Trump’s allies, is a rejection of the MAGA faction’s preferred candidate. Although Trump did not formally endorse any candidate, his influential allies—such as media figures Charlie Kirk and Tucker Carlson—pushed hard for Scott. Elon Musk, too, publicly called for Scott’s election. However, these external efforts backfired, with Senate Republicans resenting the attempt by outsiders to influence their leadership decisions. Thune’s victory is certainly a setback for MAGA and it marks the triumph of the Senate’s institutionalists, those who prioritise the stability of the chamber and the traditional Republican establishment over Trump’s populist demands. It has also come as a repudiation of the more populist, hard-right faction within the GOP, which has been emboldened by Trump’s presidency.
Thune’s relationship with Trump has been complicated. He was one of the most vocal Republican critics of Trump following the January 6 riots. Thune called Trump’s actions surrounding the event “inexcusable” and distanced himself from the president on several key issues, including Trump’s attempt to challenge the 2020 election results. This criticism, particularly in the aftermath of the Capitol riots, earned Thune the ire of Trump, who labelled him a "RINO" (Republican In Name Only) and even tried to put up a primary challenger against him in 2022.
Thune has, however, worked to repair his relationship with Trump, and in 2024, he ultimately endorsed the former president after initially backing Senator Tim Scott in the GOP primary. Thune even visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in March 2024, a move seen as an attempt to reassure Trump’s base. Still, his past criticisms of the former president, combined with his more measured, traditional approach to governance, set him apart from the firebrand rhetoric of Scott and other Trump loyalists.
Thune’s election as Majority Leader reflects a preference for a more conventional, institutional approach to leadership, as opposed to the chaotic, personality-driven politics often associated with Trump. Thune, who is known for his careful deliberation and strategic thinking, is expected to bring a more consensus-driven style to the Senate, something that contrasts sharply with Trump’s more combative and divisive approach. This difference could lead to tensions between the White House and the Senate, particularly as Thune seeks to manage a diverse coalition of Republicans, some of whom may be reluctant to embrace Trump’s more extreme policy proposals.
One of the key areas of potential conflict between Thune and Trump is the future of Senate rules, particularly the filibuster. Trump has often called for the abolition of the 60-vote threshold required to pass most legislation in the Senate, arguing that it hampers the GOP’s ability to enact its agenda. Thune, however, has repeatedly defended the filibuster, emphasising its role in preserving minority rights in the Senate. This fundamental difference could set the stage for a showdown between the White House and Senate Republicans, with Thune likely to resist any moves to eliminate or weaken the filibuster.
The election of Thune as Majority Leader could present challenges for Trump as he seeks to push his agenda through Congress. Although Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, three Republican Senators—Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Susan Collins (Maine), and Bill Cassidy (Louisiana)—have previously broken with Trump on key issues, including voting to convict him during his second impeachment trial. These moderate Republicans may continue to present obstacles for Trump’s nominees and legislative priorities. For instance, it would be interesting to see how a Thune-led Senate responds to some of Trump’s unconventional choices such as Pete Hegseth, a military veteran and Fox News host with no government leadership experience, as defence secretary, or Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida as attorney general.
Furthermore, Thune’s preference for institutionalism, bipartisanship and his focus on consensus-building may slow down Trump’s more ambitious legislative goals. Trump’s supporters, including key figures in the media and in the House of Representatives, will likely push for swift action on issues like judicial appointments, cabinet confirmations and tax cuts. Thune’s cautious approach could delay or even derail some of these initiatives, as he will need to navigate the diverse opinions within his party and balance the demands of more centrist Republicans with those of Trump’s base.
By choosing Thune, Senate Republicans have chosen a figure who represents the party’s establishment, rather than its populist, MAGA wing. It shows that the Republican Party, at least in the Senate, is not willing to cede total control to Trump, as Thune attempts to balance Trump’s influence with a more traditional approach to governance.
