In a major policy reverse that could further escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine, incumbent US President Joe Biden has reportedly given the go-ahead to Ukraine to use US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missiles to hit military targets inside Russia.
Till now, Ukraine has used ATACMS to hit only Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. The Lockheed Martin-made ATACMS have a range of about 300 km and are primarily used to target ammunition dumps, warehouses and weapons manufacturing facilities behind enemy lines.
In effect, the use of ballistic missiles has the potential of creating havoc in Russian military logistics that could hamper the war effort for the Russians.
Significantly, there has been no formal US confirmation of the nod to ATACMS. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded with a cryptic comment on November 17 that "strikes are not carried out with words" and that "such things are not announced" but "the missiles will speak for themselves."
While Biden’s nod may have to do with trying to slow down the fast advancing Russian military into Ukraine, it may also be a tactical move by Biden to make it difficult for Trump to talk peace with Moscow given Trump’s reported bonhomie with the Russians.
For the record, Trump has already said that he seeks to end the war in Ukraine soon after he is sworn in as President.
The development, reported by the US media, is less than two months away from Trump assuming the presidency of the US on January 20, 2025.
Russian President Vladimir had already warned that allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles into Russia would imply the involvement of NATO personnel and would therefore mean that NATO is directly engaging Russia to which Russia would respond. Russia has also threatened to hit Ukraine with unspecified “new weapons systems”.
The Western act is seen as a response to reports that Russia has already deployed North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast where Ukraine has made some inroad.
But several key questions remain.
Russia has gained considerable control over the Ukrainian waterfront both on land and over the skies. With Ukraine having no worthwhile air defence systems and adequate conventional weapons, it is at the mercy of Russia at least in the battle zone.
Moreover, who will supply the ATACMS? Weapons supplies are running dry in Europe and the US which is further accentuated with the latter prioritising weapons supply to Israel than to Ukraine. Additionally, the conflict in Israel is showing signs of widening and could take much time before the outstanding issues are resolved or till there is an abiding ceasefire between Israel Hezbollah and Iran.
The other worrisome factor for Ukraine is the growing shortage of soldiers. While casualties on both sides have been heavy, Russia has a much larger population and a bigger reserve force of troops, something Ukraine doesn’t have the luxury of.