As Syrian rebels break into the capital city of Damascus on Sunday morning, there are concerns about the fate of President Bashar al-Assad, who has reportedly fled the country. A US official told CNN that "by next weekend the Assad regime will have lost any semblance of power."
Speculations are rife that Assad, a trained doctor who took over from his father, has fled the country with his British-born wife, Asma al-Assad and three children. However, his office rubbished the speculations that he fled Syria, stating he is still in Damascus "following up on his duties".
The US and the West believe the Assad regime could collapse in days after the 14-year-long civil war. There is no formal assessment of his fate yet, there are fears that even his death couldn't be ruled out. "The emerging consensus is that is an increasingly plausible scenario," a senior US official told CNN.
Syrians celebrated the fall of the 53-year Assad dynasty by performing prostrations of gratitude to God. pic.twitter.com/lxm8aujExZ
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 8, 2024
Syrian rebels advanced toward Damascus as front lines collapsed across the country, posing an existential threat to President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year rule https://t.co/QeRoYnY35N pic.twitter.com/Cyvcw240cY
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 8, 2024
So far, there is no sight of Assad in Damascus. However, he could be in his hometown of Al-Qardaha, which is close to a Russian base, or even in Tehran. Though an ally of Russia and Iran, who kept Assad in power for the last decade, it is unlikely that they would swoop in to save him. While Russia is busy in Ukraine, Iran has suffered a series of setbacks against Israel.
Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said though Russian President Vladimir Putin saved Assad in 2015, he won't do so this time. However, Assad may still try to flee to Russia or Iran where he would be offered refuge. Many are keeping track of flights in and out of Damascus to work out whether he might have left.
Any remaining hope for Assad is a well-organised coup and reorganisation but reports are that his troops are already in talks about defection with rebel leaders. Videos also showed Assad's troops removing their uniforms under the poster of Assad's face. The city’s main police headquarters and an army checkpoint too looked deserted.
His troops offered little resistance in the cities where the rebels advanced, including Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. They are unlikely to do that in Damascus as well. "Assad’s folks have done a good job of stifling any potential competitors," a US official told CNN.
That leaves only another superpower in the equation, the US. President-Elect Donald Trump has already made his stance clear, stating his intention to stay out of conflict. "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” he wrote, urging a hands-off approach and concluding with the message: “LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
The Joe Biden administration is worried about two things, the safety of Assad's stockpile of chemical weapons, thought to include both chlorine and sarin and the potential release of ISIS prisoners detained in northeast Syria.
