As the world waited with bated breath hanging on to the possibility of peace in Ukraine, the nearly two-hour phone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday ended only with just the optics, bereft of substance.
On Wednesday morning, just hours after the Trump-Putin conversation, Moscow and Kiev were already accusing each other of launching air strikes that led to fires and damage to civilian infrastructure.
Zelensky on the Trump-Putin call:
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 18, 2025
Ukraine supports peace, but if Russia talks and then bombs Slovyansk, we will respond.
Russia’s goal is the same - no mobilization, no aid to Ukraine, so they can attack later.
The prisoner exchange? Pre-planned, nothing new.
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An analysis of the content of the telephone chat underlined the fact that there was a large gap between what Trump wanted and what Putin was willing to concede.
Russia has already gained the military upper hand in the conflict even as its forces are advancing and gaining territories including in Kursk. A 30-day respite to energy infrastructure targets will give Moscow an opportunity to position its oil and energy depots further towards the frontlines to aid a military advance.
Just hours after telling Trump that Russia would agree to stop attacking energy infrastructure in Ukraine for 30 days, Putin attacked energy infrastructure in Ukraine, humiliating Trump. I hope the president and his team learn from this experience and develop new negotiating…
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) March 18, 2025
A 30-day ceasefire would also provide Kiev with a chance to regroup and re-arm.
Moreover, energy infrastructure would be less valuable targets with the air heating up with the onset of the Spring season, unlike in the freezing winters where heating would be a must.
What does an agreement not to attack energy infrastructure (like electricity and oil establishments and installations) by the warring Russian and Ukrainian militaries for a 30-day period mean? It does however imply that attacks and counter-attacks can keep on happening on non-energy infrastructure targets, including civilian targets, roads, rail networks, airports, food and water supply networks. So where does that leave the ceasefire?
On the Trump proposal for declaration of a 30-day ceasefire, Russia fell back upon its demand for the need to stop the military mobilisation in Ukraine and rearming the Ukrainian military by the US-led West. That is like coercing war-ravaged Ukraine to an abject surrender.
A Russian embassy statement issued in New Delhi said, “A complete cessation of providing Kiev with foreign military aid and intelligence must become the key condition for preventing an escalation of the conflict and making progress towards its resolution through political and diplomatic means.” So where does it leave Ukraine then?
Two other points that saw a consensus were to implement the proposal regarding the safety of navigation in the Black Sea and the swapping of 175 prisoners each on Wednesday.
The Russian side also pointed out that “some serious risks exist pertaining to the intractability of the Kiev regime which had repeatedly sabotaged and violated negotiated agreements. An emphasis was made on barbaric acts of terrorism committed by Ukrainian militants against civilians residing in the Kursk Region.”
As of now, the ground and air offensives will continue in the next 30 days.
The US President wanted an unconditional complete ceasefire for 30 days and Putin seemingly did not agree. That is why this ceasefire is no ceasefire at all.
