BJP and Shiv Sena: An effective force

In the last week of April, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis told a select group of journalists that he was confident that the BJP-Shiv Sena combine would win 38 to 41 seats in Maharashtra. His words proved to be prophetic. At the time of filing this report, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine looked all set to win 41 of 48 seats, as it did in 2014. This, despite a pointed campaign by the opposition that focused on farmers’ suicides, drought and the ill-effects of demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax.

As the numbers stand now, the BJP is winning in 23 seats, the Shiv Sena in 18, the Congress in one, the NCP in five and one seat is going to the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen. The Congress had won two seats in 2014—Nanded and Washim. It lost both seats this time. Former chief minister and state Congress chief Ashok Chavan lost to BJP’s Prataprao Patil Chikhalikar in Nanded. Another former chief minister to bite the dust is Sushilkumar Shinde in Solapur. Parth Pawar, son of former deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, too, lost from Maval by more than two lakh votes. His granduncle Sharad Pawar decided not to contest elections to make way for him. The only respite for the Pawars’ NCP is Supriya Sule winning Baramati by more than 1.5 lakh votes.

Region wise, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine swept Mumbai. Sena’s Arvind Sawant, for the second time, defeated Milind Deora, as did BJP’s Poonam Mahajan, who beat the Congress’s Priya Dutt. Shiv Sena’s Rahul Shewale, once again, defeated veteran Congress leader Eknath Gaikwad, and the BJP’s Manoj Kotak won against the NCP’s Sanjay Patil. Sanjay Nirupam and Urmila Matondkar of the Congress were both decimated. “Mumbai Congress accepts the verdict of the people with all humility,” said Deora, who is the Mumbai Congress president. “The Congress fielded experienced and popular candidates, each of whom gave a strong and commendable fight to the BJP and the Shiv Sena.”

In neighbouring Konkan, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won all seats, except Raigad, where Sunil Tatkare of the NCP beat Union minister Anant Geete of the Shiv Sena. In western Maharashtra, the NCP retained Satara and Baramati. It wrested Shirur from the Sena, but lost Kolhapur and Madha to the saffron combine. In a shocking defeat in Hatkanangle, firebrand farmers’ leader Raju Shetti lost to the Sena’s Dhairyasheel Mane.

In Vidarbha, the saffron combine won eight of ten seats. Union minister of state Hansraj Ahir lost to former Sena MLA turned Congressman Suresh Dhanorkar in Chandrapur. In Amravati, Navnit Rana, an NCP-supported independent, won against senior Sena MP Anandrao Adsul. In Marathwada, the saffron combine won all eight seats, except Aurangabad. In north Maharashtra, the BJP and the Sena won all six seats.

So, how did the BJP-Shiv Sena swing such an impressive victory a second time? Fadnavis attributes it to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and the poor reposing their faith in him. Also, both Modi and the chief minister have been effective in communicating with the people, said a close aide of Fadnavis. “They were able to successfully convey that the nation can progress and emerge as a world power only under the NDA rule,” he said.

Another aspect is the damage done by dalit leader Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi to the Congress-NCP alliance in six to seven seats. In Nanded and Solapur, the VBA polled more than 1.5 lakh votes, leading to the defeat of Chavan and Shinde. It also contributed to Ahir’s loss in Chandrapur. In Aurangabad, Imtiaz Jaleel of the AIMIM, an ally of the VBA in Maharashtra, was leading against Sena’s Chandrakant Khaire.

Raj Thackeray’s campaign against the BJP, too, had no impact. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief addressed more than ten rallies, which were well attended and even caused much tension to the BJP. But, the saffron combine managed a win in all the seats he had campaigned.