Rahul Gandhi handcuffed by Modi juggernaut

As the results poured in, bringing sad tidings for the Congress, a crucial bit of news was especially worrisome—party president Rahul Gandhi was staring at an imminent defeat at the hands of the BJP’s Smriti Irani in Amethi.

At the deserted AICC headquarters, a young spokesperson asked the media coordinator of the party on how to deal with questions on Amethi. The suggestion was: “Tell the media that only ten rounds of counting are done so far. Several more rounds remain. The situation can change.” But, it was a fig leaf which could be used only for a short while. The situation summed up the despondency in the Congress. The principal opposition party had managed to win just 52 seats, just a shade better than its worst ever Lok Sabha tally of 44 in 2014. The party chief had lost the election and face in Amethi.

The verdict in Amethi confirmed the real reason why Gandhi chose to contest from Wayanad in Kerala. It was the fear of the party stronghold slipping away, especially in the face of an aggressive campaign by Irani. Gandhi won Wayanad by a whopping margin of over 4.3 lakh votes, and it may have saved the party the embarrassment of its own chief failing to win a Lok Sabha seat. But, the Congress and its leadership are faced with not just the ignominy of failing miserably in providing a credible alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP, but also an existential crisis.

Only a few months ago, the Congress was on the upswing, having registered victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. However, the BJP has bucked past trends to sweep the three states. It is felt that while the Congress had won in the state elections, the people there had already made up their minds to vote for Modi in the general elections. And, this feeling was further bolstered by the nationalist sentiment post-Balakot, and doubts about the implementation of the Congress’s loan waiver promise.

Elsewhere, where the Congress was locked in a direct contest with the BJP, there was nothing to cheer about. Its hopes of making a dent in the BJP’s chances in Gujarat were dealt a blow, with the saffron party sweeping the state yet again. The Congress frittered away its advantage due to internal bickering and not being able to hold on to its leaders. In Uttarakhand, it was a whitewash for the Congress, with the thrust on nationalism taking the contest away from the opposition party. Not surprising, as the state sends a sizeable number of people to the armed forces and the paramilitary services.

In Haryana and Delhi, where the Congress was pitted against the BJP in a triangular contest, the BJP, yet again, swept. Besides Gandhi, the other stalwarts from the Congress who bit the dust included Jyotiraditya Scindia, Mallikarjun Kharge, M. Veerappa Moily, Digvijaya Singh, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Sheila Dikshit, Ajay Maken and Ashok Chavan.

Significantly, in the electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh, where Gandhi had deployed Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as AICC general secretary in charge of eastern UP, the party won only Sonia Gandhi’s seat—Rae Bareli. It is felt that Vadra ought to have campaigned in states where the Congress had a more substantial presence.

The only bright spots for the Congress were the southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as also Punjab, a border state, which, despite the intense focus on nationalism and national security, favoured the Congress.

The alliances that the Congress entered into failed miserably, with Tamil Nadu being the only exception, where the DMK did exceedingly well. Thanks to the DMK’s support, the Congress also won eight seats there. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance held on to its 2014 tally, and the Congress and the NCP managed to win just a handful of seats. In Bihar, the mahagathbandhan was nowhere in the fight. Lalu Prasad’s RJD failed to open its account, and the Congress got a lone seat.

In Karnataka, the BJP won 25 seats, eight more than last time, as the Congress and the JD(S) managed to win just one seat each. And, in Jharkhand, the Congress and its allies got a rude shock as the BJP managed to win just one seat less than last time.

The Congress is now faced with the grim prospect of losing its state governments in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, with the BJP having already indicated that it will move aggressively to rid these two regimes of majority.

Rahul went through the ritual of accepting defeat, congratulating Modi and the BJP and saying that it was not the time to go into the details of the mandate. “I take full responsibility for the Congress’ performance…. It is between me and the party, and me and the CWC,” he said in response to questions on whether he would resign. But questions are bound to be asked, not just about the party’s strategy for the elections but also about Rahul’s leadership.

“The results are definitely unexpected. I feel we failed to read the mind of the voter. I was not expecting the party to do so badly in Maharashtra or Madhya Pradesh. So, the voter clearly had expectations that we failed to match,” said senior Congress leader Mohan Prakash.

“We went into the elections with a positive agenda. But, it did not resonate with the people. We failed to counter the BJP’s aggressive campaign that was based on nationalism,” said Congress’s Jaiveer Shergill.

What further helped the BJP was the lack of unity in the opposition bloc. Several leaders made their prime ministerial ambitions evident. Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee were not at all comfortable with the Congress’s primacy in the anti-BJP coalition as they were eyeing the top post in the country.

“We would have loved to project Rahul as a PM candidate. But we had to compromise on that because we did not want to infuriate other opposition parties,” said a Congress leader.