On February 26 last year, India shed its image of a soft state. It flew Mirage jets into Pakistan-held airspace, bombed a Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp in Balakot and claimed to have killed 200. This was done in retaliation to the attack on a CRFP convoy in Pulwama, Kashmir, on February 14, which killed 40 security personnel. The strikes redefined the relations between the two nuclear powers.
A year on, there has been relative calm in the subcontinent, even though Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan warned of a possible nuclear war after India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August, and again after the new citizenship law was enacted.
In the aftermath of the Balakot strikes, Khan had given army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa an extension till 2022, essentially telling the world that the strikes had not affected the Pakistan army.
And yes, on the surface, few changes were effected. The Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lieutenant General Asim Munir retired and was succeeded by Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed. In January, Major General Babar Iftikhar replaced Major General Asif Ghafoor as head of the Inter-Services Public Relations.
Within the deep state, however, there seems to have been a churning. “Pakistan has been forced to go back to the drawing board as its entire policy of sub-conventional warfare has been turned on its head,” said Tilak Devasher, a member of the National Security Advisory Board, which falls under the prime minister’s office. On February 13, a Pakistani court sentenced Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) founder Hafiz Saeed to 11 years in jail; JeM founder Masood Azhar has been underground for some time now.
Intelligence reports THE WEEK accessed said that the JeM and the LeT were building their second-rung leadership to take on operations. According to the reports, in the absence of Saeed, who is also the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) chief, a new crop of leaders has been identified: Qari Yaqoob Sheikh, general secretary of the Milli Muslim League; Khalid Saiful Islam Wattoo, JuD in-charge in Muridke; Mufti Abdul Rehman Abid and Maulana Mazoor Ahmed, JuD in-charges in Gujranwala; and Mufti Muhammad Yousuf Taibi, JuD in-charge in Lahore.
The JeM’s Masood Azhar is nominally “out of the picture” because of international pressure. In February, the Financial Action Task Force said Pakistan would continue to be on its grey list, and warned stern action if it did not check flow of money to terror groups.
Terror rise?: In the absence of Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar (right), the LeT and the JeM have been grooming new leaders | AFP
Though Pakistan has claimed that Azhar’s whereabouts are “not known”, intelligence agencies believe he shuttles between the JeM headquarters in Bahawalpur and Rawalpindi, where he allegedly lives in an ISI safe house.
In Azhar’s “absence”, his younger brothers, Mufti Abdul Rauf Asghar and Talha Saif, have been made the JeM chief and the overall in-charge of operations, respectively. Azhar’s elder brother, Mohammed Tahir Anwar, is in charge of arms training, and Mohammed Ibrahim Azhar, another brother, is in charge of Afghanistan operations. The youngest brother, Mohammed Ammar, is in charge of propaganda. Azhar’s sister, Sadeya Bibi, is married to Yusuf Azhar, the JeM commander at the Balakot camp who, contrary to reports, is believed to have survived the air strikes.
The JeM is a family-controlled group, and the ISI has kept it so so that it can be controlled easily, said a counter-terrorism official. If there are strong ideological leaders who are independent, they can go rogue. But when family is involved, the leaders are automatically reined in, said the official.
Indian intelligence has picked up details of a few meetings that the ISI had with Asghar, where he was told that the ISI had convinced the Pakistan government to gradually ease the restrictions on the JeM. “Pakistan may not indulge in any big terror activity till June, as it continues to be on the FATF grey list, but it will be making some tactical changes,” said former Intelligence Bureau special director Arun Chaudhary.
Plan of action: Imran Khan with ISI chief Faiz Hameed.
According to intelligence sources, the training courses at Markaz Syed Ahmad Shaheed camp in Balakot—which was targeted in the air strike—resumed in mid-April of 2019, while the askari (military) training resumed in August. In September, a batch of 40 to 45 JeM cadres, including Afghans, underwent advanced training at the camp.
But, in the last week of October, apparently fearing another attack on the facility by Indian forces, Pakistan authorities told the JeM to vacate it. The terror outfit reorganised the Balakot camp and other training facilities to avoid detection by allocating separate training locations for the “military wing”.
In the second week of January this year, 27 JeM cadres returned to the facilities.
According to the intelligence reports, there are various levels of training at the camps, which progress from foundation courses, which make the cadres well-versed in the JeM’s interpretation of the Quran; and motivational courses like the Daura-e-Tarbiya, where select cadres are indoctrinated to become suicide bombers.
This is followed by military training for eight months to a year. The highest levels of training are the Daura-e-Zarar and Daura-e-Al Raad courses, where cadres are taught to handle firearms such as AK-47s, rocket launchers and under-barrel grenade launchers. The cadres are also trained to handle communications equipment.
“A Daura-e-Tarbiya course was conducted at JeM Markaz Subhan Allah (in Bahawalpur), in which about 50 newly inducted youth have been enrolled,” said the reports. “JeM also scheduled to commence a Daura-e-Tarbiya course at Markaz Usman-o-Ali in Bahawalpur. A ten-day refresher course for mujahideen was restarted at terrorist training camps at Mansehra, Gulpur and Kotli, and around 40 JeM cadres were enrolled at Markaz Syed Ahmad Shaheed, Balakot, Manshera and KPK (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) for a refresher course.”
Ideologically, said Devasher, the JeM was far more committed because it laid the onus of declaring jihad on the individual and not the state. This suits the ISI. “As a Deobandi organisation, it pays a lot of attention to ideological indoctrination,” he said. “Only after a recruit has been thoroughly indoctrinated is he sent for weapons training. This is why they are more potent.”
If the Pakistan deep state seemed to have undergone a churn post Balakot, within India, the strikes have led to a lot of trust and synergy between the armed forces and the civilian intelligence organisation. “We were really convinced that our agencies were getting ground reports when they showed us photos from within the Balakot building,” said an officer. “They showed that they were getting human intelligence, and not just satellite photos.”
After laying low for many years, the JeM had come back into focus after the attack on the Pathankot airbase in 2016, followed by the Pulwama suicide bombing in 2019. The conspirators in the Pulwama attack—Mudasir Ahmed Khan, Qari Mufti Yasser, Kamran and Sajjad Ahmed Bhat—were killed in different encounters since.
While investigating the Pulwama case, another overground JeM network was busted and eight persons were charge-sheeted, in another case, under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act. On February 28, Shakir Bashir Magrey, who allegedly provided shelter and logistical support to the Pulwama suicide bomber Adil Ahmad Dar, was arrested. On March 3, the NIA arrested two more persons—Tariq Ahmed Shah and his daughter Insha Jan, 23—who were accused of providing shelter to the terrorists. Apparently, the video of Dar, recorded just before he attacked, was made at their home. An NIA officer claimed that the JeM had suffered a serious blow in South Kashmir in the past one year. Many in India believe that the JeM network was busted following Pulwama and Balakot.
However, Chaudhary, the former IB special director, said the JeM would continue to hold sway in Kashmir, especially in South Kashmir. He recalled meeting Masood Azhar at the Kot Bhalwal jail in Jammu in 1998-99. “Azhar asked me, ‘How many will you kill? You kill one and thousands will be born’,” he said.
Those days, youth from Punjab and Sindh, in Pakistan, were drilled with anti-India sentiment. They were told how India was choking Pakistan and trying to control the waters. Most of the JeM cadres still hail from Punjab and Sindh.
And now, fresh intelligence has revealed that the JeM has intensified its recruitment drive in the interior and tribal areas of Charsadda, Mardan and Swabi of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Nausehra in Punjab, Pakistan. The reports said that the JeM has formed groups, or tablighs, which are visiting various areas to motivate the youth to join the JeM. The reports elaborated that the outfit has started releasing speeches of Asghar and his brothers on social media, and opened a “Kashmir jihad” fund-collection drive.
Said Lieutenant General (retd) D.S. Hooda, who oversaw the 2016 surgical strikes: “One indicator that there is no change in Pakistan policy after surgical strikes or the Balakot operation is that cross-border infiltration has not stopped. The threat today is not so much from those who are inside Kashmir, but those who are being infiltrated before a strike is to be launched.”
With snow melting on the Himalayas, intelligence agencies have spotted more JeM-trained cadres opposite the Poonch and Rajouri sectors. Around 100 JeM cadres, including Afghan fidayeens, are apparently waiting in the Neelum/Leepa valley area, along the line of control, for infiltration.
As per sources, Asghar has been travelling widely and meeting ISI officials regularly. He was in the Sialkot sector in December, meeting and urging commanders to find new routes of infiltration, and to execute spectacular attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. As per the reports, it was decided that infiltrators would target the Army cantonment in Jammu and convoys of security forces plying on national highways. Other plans to target defence installations, the airport and other important centres in Jammu also surfaced, indicating a shift of focus to Jammu instead of Srinagar. The JeM has also decided to divert many of its cadres from the Afghanistan front to Jammu and Kashmir in phases.
This planning comes against the backdrop of US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and the Taliban signing a deal on February 29 to facilitate the pull-out of US troops from Afghanistan. “In 1989, after the Soviet pull-out, we saw an impact on our border, with Afghan terrorists coming into Kashmir,” said Hooda. “Though we are well prepared and the situation is not similar to the 1990s, there is still a danger and we need to be careful. If the Taliban alone comes to power, Pakistan succeeds and Indian interests in Afghanistan can be affected in the short term, as projects and even Indian consulates may be closed down.”
According to the reports, a number of meetings had taken place between JeM leaders and the Haqqani network—one of Afghanistan’s most sophisticated insurgent organisations—to increase coordination between their commanders ahead of the US-Taliban deal.
The US would need to keep Pakistan on its side to ensure an orderly exit of its troops from Afghanistan, said Devasher. “The Taliban does not believe in sharing power, in democracy or in women’s rights as commonly understood. Once part of any interim structure in Kabul, it will quickly strive to capture power on its own. As and when it alone comes to power, Pakistan would have succeeded,” he said. “An additional worry would be if Pakistan is enabled to shift jihadis from the LeT and the JeM into the ungoverned spaces in Afghanistan.”
Indian intelligence has learnt that a number of JeM cadres were being moved to JeM/Haqqani camps in Kunar and Nuristan, in Afghanistan.
The ISI is said to be lending support to the Islamic State of Khorasan Province, active in Afghanistan, to ensure that the Taliban does not go out of ISI control once the US peace deal is through.
“Options for India would include talking to old friends among the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, as also the large majority of the Pashtuns who are opposed to the Taliban,” said Devasher. “We would have to monitor the situation closely to see how the intra-Afghan dialogue progresses.”
As of now, the deep state appears to have opened multiple fronts for its proxy war against India. According to the intelligence reports, the LeT, with the support of the ISI, has intensified its recruitment drive in the tribal areas of Swat, Peshawar, Quetta and Ilaqa-e-Ghair in Pakistan, and Muzaffarabad, Bagh and Kotli in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
“Unlike the JeM, which obsesses with Kashmir, the LeT, which follows the Ahl-e-Hadith, focusses on the hinterland as well,” said Devasher, explaining why the ISI juggles the two groups.
With the training camps being reopened, cadres are being sent for various training stints, including Daura Aama (20 days), Daura Khasa (40 days) and Bait-ur-Rizwan (four months). The LeT’s aquatic training facilities in Mangla (Mirpur) and Head Marala (Sialkot)—closed due to international pressure—have reportedly been re-activated.
The ISI, according to the reports, is also trying to revive dormant outfits headed by Kashmiri militants, including Al Umar Mujahideen (AuM) led by Mushtaq Zargar, Al Fateh led by Farooq Rehmani, and Al Badr led by Bakht Zameen. Also, pan-Islamic radical organisations such as Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind and Islamic State in Jammu and Kashmir are reportedly radicalising the youth.
Moreover, there are reports that the JeM is tapping the Indian Mujahideen network, through leaders who had fled to Pakistan (like Iqbal Bhatkal), to engineer communal flareups. The plot is to execute Pulwama-like attacks in Maharashtra and Gujarat.
While all this has been brewing in secrecy, uniformed men and spies in Pakistan have been dismissive of India’s retaliatory policy. Bashir Wali, former director general of Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau, said that the Narendra Modi government did not want peace in the neighbourhood or within its own country. “Look at what is happening in India with the citizenship protests,” he said. “The Indian government is trying to fulfil its own agenda and it will suffer. The kind of statements coming from New Delhi are immature and unsavoury.”
He said Pakistan was ready to respond if another Balakot is attempted. “I was attending a dinner where three-star generals were present,” he said. “We feel that the Indian government should focus on its own problems, otherwise it will end up creating a situation where it will suffer. The Balakot misadventure was attempted for vote bank politics. But the Indian Air Force was caught and had to drop its weapons and run. Which is why there was no damage.”
Calling the FATF grey-listing Pakistan a “political game”, he said that it did not matter to Pakistan. And, on the abrogation of Article 370, he said, “Only time will decide what the people of Kashmir want.”
Said Ajai Sahni, executive director of the South Asia Terrorism Portal: “Pakistan’s only hope of retaining influence, even within its immediate neighbourhood, is by leveraging a single instrumentality (sponsorship of terrorism). Moreover, if it gives up on its proxy war in Afghanistan, there is overwhelming likelihood that its grip over its vast Pashtun areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and north Balochistan will begin to weaken. Strategic ambitions to occupy Indian Kashmir and to avenge the loss of East Pakistan are also deeply embedded within the establishment psyche, and will not allow the country to abandon terrorism as a tool.”
This continued threat from the neighbour brings focus on the counter-terror preparedness of not just Jammu and Kashmir, but of many states as well. “Terrorism in India is on the decline, though concerns remain regarding the potential for revival in certain theatres of conflict,” said Sahni. “The major factor for this positive improvement has been the role of the security forces on the ground.”
However, he also said that critical security gaps continue in capacities and deployment. According to data of the Bureau of Police Research and Development, as on January 1, 2018, India had about 150 policemen for every one lakh people, much lower than the United Nations-recommended 220. There were also a huge number of vacancies in the Central Armed Police Forces, which have been increasingly used in the fight against terrorism. The police also lack equipment, technological backup, skills, and modern management institutions and processes.
Anjani Kumar, the Hyderabad City Police commissioner, said state police forces not only need to augment their own capacities, but also constantly work with other stakeholders, including Central agencies, to counter terrorism.
At the Central level, the Intelligence Bureau has developed subsidiary units in states and is trying to expand at the district level. An ambitious National Intelligence Grid is being developed by compiling databases from different agencies to track terrorists.
Strengthening counter-terror capabilities will always be a work in progress. And though there is concern of a possible revival of certain terrorist groups, preparations are already on to follow the precedent set by the Balakot strikes. At the helm of these preparations is Samant Goel, the IPS officer who was a key strategist of the strikes. He now heads the Research and Analysis Wing.