IT WAS AROUND 11pm on March 9. Holi bonfires across Bhopal were dying out slowly, just like the fortunes of the 15-month-old Kamal Nath government. After an informal cabinet meeting, 22 ministers handed over their resignations to the chief minister in a last-ditch attempt to save the government. Nath, who had gone to Delhi to meet Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, returned abruptly after 19 MLAs—including six ministers, close to senior leader Jyotiraditya Scindia—deserted the party and flew down to Bengaluru.
Although Nath blamed the BJP for the crisis, he knew that Scindia had been plotting to topple his government. And, his apprehensions proved right the very next day. When the entire nation was celebrating Holi, Scindia was in Delhi, meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. After an hour-long meeting, he announced his resignation from the Congress on Twitter. Soon came reports from Bengaluru that the 19 rebel MLAs, too, had resigned, leaving Nath with a minority government. By late afternoon, the number of resignations went up to 22.
BJP leaders like former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, state president V.D. Sharma and state in-charge Vinay Sahasrabuddhe were playing Holi with party workers at the BJP headquarters in Bhopal, while Scindia was meeting Modi and Shah in Delhi. The Congress headquarters, located 3km away, wore a deserted look. Ministers and MLAs returning from Nath’s office were tightlipped, and phone calls went unanswered. None of them perhaps expected this crisis after having survived a similar one a few days ago. On March 3, ten MLAs—six from the Congress, one independent, two from the Bahujan Samaj Party and one from the Samajwadi Party—had moved to a hotel in Haryana, in an alleged attempt to sabotage the Nath government.
A midnight rescue mission led by veteran Congress leader Digvijaya Singh, his son and minister in the Nath cabinet Jaivardhan Singh and a few others turned out to be successful as eight of the missing MLAs returned to Bhopal and reiterated their support to the Nath government. The two remaining MLAs, Hardeep Singh Dang and Raghuraj Singh Kansana, were later found to be among the 19 rebel MLAs in Bengaluru.
Though the BJP denied any role in what was being called ‘Operation Anjam’, the party’s involvement became evident as the resignation letters of the 19 MLAs were taken to Bhopal on a special flight by former home minister Bhupendra Singh of the BJP. The letters were handed over to Speaker N.P. Prajapati by a BJP delegation led by Bhupendra Singh and leader of the opposition Gopal Bhargava. After they claimed that the Nath government had lost its majority, the speaker said he would make a decision as per rules.
The Congress legislature party held its meeting at the chief minister’s residence, where the remaining 92 MLAs were present. Nath said the MLAs in Bengaluru were in contact with him and that the government would prove its majority on the floor of the house.
Congress media cell chief Shobha Oza told THE WEEK that the MLAs in Bengaluru were deceived into believing that they were supporting Scindia’s Rajya Sabha candidacy. “They are basically of Congress ideology and we will get them back. We can prove majority on the floor of the house and some BJP MLAs will also support us,” she said. The BJP sent its MLAs to Gurugram on a special flight late on March 10, while the Congress moved its remiaining MLAs to Jaipur.
Putting an end to all speculation, Scindia formally joined the BJP on March 11 and was promptly rewarded with a Rajya Sabha ticket, taking ‘Operation Anjam’ to its logical conclusion. Political commentator Shiv Anurag Pateriya said the BJP had made up its mind to pull down the Madhya Pradesh government and it was just the first among several non-BJP states in its crosshairs.
But it is surprising that Nath, who is regarded to be one of the best strategists in the Congress, failed to anticipate the crisis. Political analyst Manish Dixit said three factors led to the present developments. Scindia was frustrated after Digvijaya scuttled his chances of becoming chief minister and state Congress president. Second, the Congress high command ignored Scindia’s demands and let the discontent linger on. “A quicker decision was needed. Scindia was feeling more and more sidelined after his Lok Sabha defeat and the Congress central leadership should have understood the clout and support he enjoys in parts of Madhya Pradesh,” said Dixit. Finally, steps were not taken to pacify leaders, workers and MLAs. “They have been waiting for 15 years and their patience naturally wore thin,” he said.
As Nath and Digvijaya drew closer, Scindia became increasingly alienated. Nath probably took Scindia’s resentment lightly, leading to a devastating crisis for him and the Congress.
State BJP president V.D. Sharma told THE WEEK that his party was not making any attempts to destabilise the Nath government. “It is their internal feud. But if disgruntled people come to us, it is our culture to shelter them,” he said.
Political observers, meanwhile, feel that the timing of the political drama was closely linked to the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls. The BJP has made it clear that it will try to win two of three vacant seats. Given their existing strength in the state assembly, the Congress and the BJP are certain to get one seat each. The tussle is for the third seat, and the Congress, with the support of 121 MLAs, had the edge. If the resignations of the 22 MLAs are accepted, the minimum number of votes required to win one seat will drop to 52 from 58. The BJP, with its 107 members, can easily win two seats in that case.
But it may not be easy. Resignation letters of at least five BJP MLAs are said to be with Nath. The BJP’s decision to shift its MLAs out of Madhya Pradesh indicates that the party has apprehensions about poaching bids. Moreover, it is not yet certain whether the speaker, a Congress nominee, will accept the resignations of the 22 MLAs. Senior Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar, who was appointed Karnataka Congress chief on March 11, is in touch with the rebels. He seemed confident that most of them would return.
But after Scindia was formally inducted into the BJP, 19 MLAs from his camp released videos saying that they were completely behind him and that the Congress was spreading rumours. Congress spokesperson Narendra Saluja, however, said the videos were old and were recorded under pressure, which was evident from the wilted faces of the MLAs.
A political observer said many of the rebel MLAs were uncomfortable about joining the BJP. “After the resignation, the future possibility of a win is always dicey,” he said. “Moreover, they are worried that their future in the BJP will not be as bright as that of Scindia.”