We are in a new cold war, says former US general Robert S. Spalding

General Robert S. Spalding is a keen China watcher. He believes that a new Cold War has begun, with China expanding its territory and influence as a superpower and trying to isolate the United States from its allies and partners. He, however, warns that Chinese expansion also means that Beijing's military interests are more vulnerable to regional and international turmoil that can be beyond its control. Excerpts from an exclusive interview from Washington:

How do you assess the military strength of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) today?

The PLA is the dominant military force within the first and second island chain. A 2020 United States department of defence (DoD) report indicates that the PLA Army is the world’s largest standing ground force, with approximately 9.15 lakh active-duty personnel [in 2019]. According to the report, the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and PLA Navy (PLAN) Aviation combined constitute the world’s third-largest aviation force, with over 2,500 total aircraft and about 2,000 combat aircraft.

To bolster its combat readiness, PLAAF runs four annual training exercises known as Red Sword, Blue Shield, Golden Dart and Golden Helmet, and deploys advanced combat aircraft to bilateral and multilateral exercises. Although the PLAAF still has limited power projection capability, China has increased circumnavigation flights near Taiwan to deter the island from moving towards independence. The PLA will [make a] move on Taiwan within the decade. They seek global dominance.

Has the PLA achieved its military targets for 2020?

A 2019 DoD report on military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China mentions three modernisation targets the PLA established for 2020, 2035 and 2049 to surpass the US and other leading military powers. By 2020, Chinese military leaders sought to achieve basic mechanisation or modernisation of equipment inventories, and make significant strides toward informatisation, which parallels the US military’s concept of net-centric capabilities. These goals first appeared in China’s 2008 national defence white paper. In a September 2017 speech commemorating the 90th anniversary of the PLA’s founding, [Chinese Communist Party (CCP)] General Secretary Xi Jinping indicated that the PLA had achieved basic mechanisation and was well on its way to informatisation. During the 19th Party Congress of the CCP the following month, Xi introduced his plan to modernise military theory, military organisation, weapons and equipment, and fully modernise the national defence and military by 2035. By 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the PLA plans to become a “world-class” military.

How does the CCP plan to achieve this?

To transform the PLA into a “world-class” military by 2049, the CCP is pursuing an aggressive national strategy called civil-military integration (CMI). Under CMI, China systematically integrates civil and defence technology sectors so that innovation fosters both economic and military development. According to the 2019 DoD report, the PLA uses targeted foreign investment and cyber theft to acquire foreign military and dual-use technologies such as AI, big data, machine learning and unmanned systems.

Although CMI jeopardises the transparency and democratic values that underpin global technology cooperation, China describes its military strategy as one of “active defence,” meaning the country will never initiate armed conflict but will respond forcefully if adversaries challenge its national unity, territorial sovereignty, or other interests.

In an April 15 editorial, the CCP-run Global Times blamed the US for exaggerating China’s military and technology threat and called on China to consolidate its deterrent capabilities to prevent US intimidation.

Is the PLA modernisation a matter of concern for the US?

The PLA Navy has modernised steadily for more than 25 years, and its modernisation effort encompasses a wide range of aircraft, ship, and weapon acquisition programmes. While the planned composition and ultimate size of China’s navy remain publicly unknown, outside observers believe the PRC’s rapid shipbuilding efforts are meant to ensure a Chinese anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) force that will deter US intervention in a potential military conflict with Taiwan. The 2020 estimates of China’s naval force pointed to an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines. By contrast, the US had only 293 ships in early 2020. The Office of Naval Intelligence [America’s premier maritime intelligence service] predicts that China will have 400 battle force ships by 2025 and 425 by 2030. Despite the PLAN’s tremendous growth, Chinese military officials say there is still a clear gap between Chinese and US naval capabilities. PLA modernisation targets capabilities with the potential to offset US operational and technological advances.

How do you see the Belt and Road Initiative's strategic utility for China?

Apart from CMI, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is another economic endeavour that provides potential military advantages, should China need access to foreign ports to sustain naval deployments in distant waters. They will continue to strengthen the BRI and seek to isolate the US from its allies and partners, both trade[wise] and militarily. However, the expansion of Chinese influence also means China’s military interests are more vulnerable to regional and international turmoil beyond its control.

Are we looking at a new Cold War?

We are in a new Cold War. China is at war with the US and other democracies in so far as it seeks the erosion of democratic principles everywhere.

General Robert S. Spalding is former US defence attaché in Beijing, and senior director for strategic planning at the US National Security Council, White House