UP elections: Identity politics and polarisation remain key mobilisation tools for parties

WHEN THE RESULTS of the 2017 assembly elections were announced, the Deoband constituency in Saharanpur district attracted unusual attention. Deoband, which is home to the prestigious Islamic seminary, Darul Uloom, elected a BJP candidate, Kunwar Brijesh Singh. The BJP won the seat after 21 years as the party rode the hindutva wave to victory.

Deoband had become a microcosm of the electoral and ideological change in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP’s strategy, helmed by then party president Amit Shah, had paid off as it wooed non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav dalits amidst a polarised atmosphere. In Deoband, while other parties fielded Muslim candidates, the BJP fielded a Thakur. Of the 3.4 lakh voters in the constituency, there were more than 1.25 lakh Muslims. But their votes got divided, giving Singh an easy victory.

The BJP has again fielded Singh, who now wants to change Deoband’s name to Dev Vrind. To avoid repeating the division of Muslim votes, Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav has put up a Thakur candidate, Kartikeya Rana. The BJP, meanwhile, said it would win more Muslim votes. “Last time we got over 2,000 Muslim votes, this time it will cross 10,000,” said Karunesh Nandan Garg, BJP’s election in-charge for the seat.

BJP leaders, however, conceded that the party might not be able to repeat its 2017 performance. The party’s focus remains on the twin planks of hindutva and welfarism. The BJP’s competitors are nuancing their strategies to counter the singular hindutva version. Akhilesh has tried to shed his father’s pronounced pro-Muslim image by playing the soft hindutva card. Various opinion polls have signalled that the SP is closing the gap with the BJP.

The BJP is drawing from its Bihar campaign where it focused on the ‘jungle raj’ imagery to counter a resurgent Tejashwi Yadav. All key campaigners target the poor law and order situation during the SP regime. But elections are won not just on the issues of law and order and development. To move the electorate, parties need emotional issues. Hence, caste equations and polarisation become the key.

Adityanath termed the 2022 elections as a contest of “80 per cent versus 20 per cent”, where 80 per cent of the population is with the BJP. Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, who is the BJP’s OBC face, said it was a contest between “60 per cent and 40 per cent”. It is around these figures the parties are basing their strategy. Uttar Pradesh has 19 per cent upper caste voters, 41 per cent OBCs, 21 per cent dalits and 19 per cent Muslims. So, communal polarisation can help turn the elections into 80 versus 20. The BJP caste calculus focuses on upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav dalits.

“I say 60 per cent vote is ours, and there is division in the remaining 40 per cent,” said Maurya. “Even in the 40 per cent, we will have some share. So, Yogi ji talked about 80 per cent as we are getting that kind of votes in many places, and in some places it may not be 80 where we may not have been successful in getting our message across.”

Maurya is contesting from Sirathu in Kaushambi district, the seat he held for two years (2012-14) before he was elected to the Lok Sabha. The SP has fielded Apna Dal (Kameravadi) leader Pallavi Patel, sister of Union Minister Anupriya Patel. The BJP has, meanwhile, chosen to ignore the exit of some of its high profile OBC leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya. “They left for political gains. If they were dissatisfied, they could have left much earlier rather than on the eve of the elections,” said Maurya. There is, however, concern that their exit could dent the hindutva narrative. If the BJP fails to retain power, identity politics is likely to regain the centrestage in Uttar Pradesh and the demand for caste census will gather further momentum.

While the BJP’s upper caste vote bank remains largely intact, the Brahmins are not entirely happy with the party. In Kanpur, a stronghold of the Brahmins, several voters appeared miffed with the BJP as they accuse Adityanath of favouring his Thakur community. The murder of several Brahmins—some like gangster Vikas Dubey were killed in police encounters—have added to the angst. “It is Thakur rule now. Earlier, it was Yadav rule,” said Ravi Shukla, a local transporter. “Our vote may still go to Modi ji and Yogi ji. But there is no wave this time.”

Mahesh Trivedi, a four-time MLA who is contesting on a BJP ticket from Kidwai Nagar in Kanpur, said the Brahmins only wanted dharma and justice. “In fact, all Hindus want it. If someone does something wrong, he will be taken to task,” he said.

Cashing in on the discontent among the Brahmins, the Congress has fielded a Brahmin, Neha Tewari, from the neighbouring Kalyanpur seat. She is the younger sister of the wife of slain gangster Amar Dubey. Amar was an accused in the Bikru massacre—said to be masterminded by Vikas—in which eight policemen lost their lives.

Two other prominent voting groups, the Yadavs and the Jatavs, have been firmly behind Akhilesh and Mayawati, respectively. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had an alliance. The BSP, however, gained more as the dalits votes did not get transferred to SP candidates. In the 2012 elections, the SP had won a majority of the reserved seats, while in 2017, the BJP had the upper hand. “As Mayawati keeps a low profile, the disintegration of her dalit vote bank will help the BJP,” said Saini.

According to initial reports from western Uttar Pradesh, the BJP may not perform as well as it did in 2017. Five years ago, Shah rebuffed overtures for an alliance from Rashtriya Lok Dal chief Ajit Singh. After Ajit Singh’s death, his son, Jayant Chaudhary, heads the RLD, and Shah has been trying to woo him.

What remains largely constant in this political equation are the Muslims. “Muslims are not anti-BJP, but because the BJP is anti-Muslim, the party does not get their vote,” said a senior maulana at Darul Uloom. “While the community may pick up a local candidate who can defeat the BJP in Deoband, they mostly support Akhilesh.”