Expert take: Ukraine needs regime change

Most people, including Russians, did not expect extensive military action in Ukraine. Russian authorities, however, realised that there has been a fundamental change in the situation, and not just in the Donbas region, but across Ukraine. The Zelenskyy government chose to ignore the blatant violation of human rights and atrocities by the neo-Nazis, and refused to comply with the Minsk agreements. There were also reports about a large-scale invasion of neo-Nazis into Donbas, along with the threat of terrorist attacks and provocations ordered by Kyiv against Donbas and Russia.

Russian troops hastily occupied the Chernobyl nuclear plant to prevent the possibility of such a terrorist attack. By doing so, Russia was protecting a large number of people, not just in Russia and Ukraine, but in Europe as a whole. This explains the secretive, sudden and large-scale nature of the military operation. The operation was forced, and this is obvious from the fact that President Vladimir Putin was not at all interested in such a course of action.

The main task of Russian operations is denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. It can only be fulfilled by signing a peace treaty and changing the political regime in Ukraine. First of all, Ukraine must adopt a neutral status. The aggressive NATO cannot be on its territory and neo-Nazi groups must be completely disarmed. Zelenskyy allowed the distribution of weapons into the hands of everyone, which has created a new risk for Ukraine itself.

We are already seeing growing chaos. Street gangs have stepped up violence in Ukrainian cities. It is going to be a major challenge for the Russian army. Manoeuvres must be lightning fast, and the operation must be precise and time-bound.

Zelenskyy needs to act as an independent leader to stop the war, but he is under the influence of his western handlers, and his decisions depend on their position. He delays key decisions, first offers negotiations and then refuses them. He is, frankly, a weak politician, who cannot and does not want to take responsibility. He expects someone else to solve problems for him.

In Russia, too, the reverberations are being felt. As the operation has been secretive and fast, Russians have not been ready, especially psychologically. Most of them do not know what the situation is, and they have hardly thought about the risks that Ukraine has created. Moreover, there is the influence of the western media. Some people, looking superficially at the situation, got scared and protested against the operation. Therefore, until all documents, including the secret ones, are made public, Russians will not have a clear point of view on the situation.

The Russian society as a whole, however, is aware that the situation could not last long. Therefore, a majority of the Russians have supported Putin’s decision.

As far as the response of the international community is concerned, the position adopted by India and China, despite the pressure from the west, has been not to take any ill-considered steps, and to keep in touch with the Russian government. I think Russia has informed India and China about the risks the Ukrainian government could pose to regional and global security. They have understood that Russia does not conduct military operations against the civilian population, and has taken an objective stand, despite the deluge of fake news, especially on social media, about atrocities committed by Russian forces.

—The author teaches international relations at St Petersburg State University, Russia.

As told to Ajish P. Joy