Loss in Chhattisgarh gives the Congress its biggest shock

THE RESULT WAS totally shocking,” Chhattisgarh Congress spokesperson Sushil Anand Shukla admitted to THE WEEK, two days after his party’s defeat in the assembly polls. The BJP’s victory in the tribal-dominated state left political watchers, poll analysts and, according to the Congress, even the common people, surprised. Despite the widespread assumption that the Bhupesh Baghel-led government would retain power, the Congress could win just 35 of 90 seats, its lowest tally ever. “We will speak only after a review and a legislative party meeting where the reasons will be discussed,” said Shukla.

Baghel said the Congress would play the role of a positive opposition, but refused to comment on the reasons behind the loss. Sources close to him said the results left him totally surprised. The initial assessment is that there was a silent undercurrent of the hindutva sentiment spurred by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

Political watchers, however, mention that factors like the ‘Mahtari Vandan’ scheme―a cash assistance of Rs1,000 per month for women―and other sops like gas cylinders for Rs500 and procurement of 21 quintals of paddy per farmer at Rs3,100 per quintal, worked big time for the BJP. “Women were enthused by the ‘Mahtari Vandan’ scheme. It was a real game changer for us,” said Santosh Sahu, a BJP leader from Raipur North assembly constituency. The hard work of people like Sahu made a huge difference, compared with the slack poll management by the Congress. “Our ground level army worked extremely hard and it was one of the biggest reasons behind our stupendous win,” said party spokesperson Kedarnath Gupta.

Also, the failure of the Congress to keep together its tribal pocket boroughs in Bastar and Surguja cost the party dearly. In 2018, the Congress had won 25 of 29 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes, which came down to 11 this time.

Some critics say Baghel’s arrogance, his divisive politics to keep rivals in the party suppressed and his loss of connection with the people also played a role in the debacle. Baghel had centred the election campaign on himself, relegating other leaders to the background. This gave the BJP a chance to attack him personally, painting him as a corrupt and arrogant leader.

Baghel looked sombre and subdued during his brief interaction with media after the big loss, but those who know him are certain that he will continue to be the most prominent face of the Chhattisgarh Congress in the near future, even if his role in national politics of the Congress might get reassessed. “Currently, no leader in Chhattisgarh has his stature and he should be the one who should lead the party in the Lok Sabha campaign, despite the loss,” said political commentator Diwakar Muktibodh. Another political observer pointed out that Baghel’s key rivals in the party like deputy chief minister T.S. Singh Deo, home minister Tamradhwaj Sahu and state Congress chief Deepak Baij lost the polls.

The BJP, meanwhile, has to pick the best man to lead the next government. Voters appear impatient to get the promised benefits, especially the ‘Mahtari Vandan’ scheme for which BJP workers got lakhs of women enrolled. Raman Singh, who led the BJP government for three straight terms and made a big impact with development measures, is among the frontrunners. However, the BJP’s focus on tribal and OBC politics has brought in other leaders like Union Minister Renuka Singh, former Rajya Sabha member Ramvichar Netam, former state president Vishnu Deo Sai―all tribal leaders―and OBC leaders like state president Arun Sao.

Raman Singh said the decision would be taken by the BJP legislative party in the presence of party observers. “There are many names in contention,” he said. But the decision is with the legislative party.”