BJP next target in MP? 51 per cent vote share in 2024 LS polls

Rathiram Pal, 40, is a paan kiosk owner in the Banganga area of Bhopal. For the last 15 years, he has also been the BJP booth president for polling booth 120 in the Bhopal South-West assembly constituency. It is a role he has performed with pride. Now, he has reason to be extra proud. The BJP candidate from the constituency, Bhagwandas Sabnani, won from Pal’s booth with a margin of 200 votes though only 830 of around 1,400 votes were polled.

“I have always been impressed by the pro-poor steps taken by the BJP and [Chief Minister] Shivraj Singh Chouhan ji,” he said. “And, when [Narendra] Modi ji became the prime minister, my faith in the party increased further. I will work for the party for the rest of my life, regardless of returns.”

The BJP in the state has 64,253 such booth presidents, who are part of a far bigger ground network of the party that has people in charge of every page in the voter list (panna pramukhs). These foot soldiers went to work diligently, months ahead of the November 17 polls, to ensure the BJP’s victory at every level―all possible booths and wards.

Pawan Narwaria, president of the Tagore mandal (zone), under whom Pal works, said that the ground-level workers, such as Pal, were the party’s real assets. They maintain direct contact with the voters, not only for election-related endeavours, but also at a personal level. They meet voters regularly, keep track of their well-being and stand with them when required. They also keep them informed about welfare schemes and ensure they become beneficiaries, make them aware of the negatives of opposition parties and finally motivate them to come out and vote for the kamal ka phool (lotus symbol) on election day.

The hard work of this ground force, together with Modi’s popularity, welfare schemes like Ladli Behna (cash assistance to women) and a lazy Congress campaign, brought a huge victory for the BJP―the third biggest (163 seats) in the past 20 years. The party had won 173 under Uma Bharti in 2003 and 165 under Chouhan in 2013.

“People have faith in Modi ji and understand that the BJP works for the poor,” said Pal. “Especially the women were impressed by schemes like Ladli Laxmi and even Muslim women came out to vote for the BJP this time as they benefited from the scheme, too. We could convince them that the party means well for all.”

The ground force is earning praises from the high echelons―Modi to Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who is the chief architect of the well-oiled organisational structure of the BJP.

“Our organisation is our biggest strength,” state party president Vishnu Dutt Sharma told THE WEEK. “Amit Shah ji gave us the task of achieving 51 per cent vote share in each assembly segment. Because of the sheer hard work of the party workers on the ground, we achieved 49 (48.55) per cent vote share in the state. In 101 assembly seats, we crossed 51 per cent―a stupendous achievement. Any amount of praise is too little for our workers.”

As the party was poised to form government for the fifth time in 20 years, it seemed that the state was turning into an impregnable BJP fortress like Gujarat. “Despite the apparent anti-incumbency of two decades, the party managed to win well over two-thirds majority, decimating the Congress,” said political commentator Manish Dixit. “The situation in MP seems similar now to Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, where the Congress has no ground left, and especially comparable to Gujarat, where, despite strictly bipolar electoral politics, the Congress has not been able to gain even a slim foothold since being shunted out of power in 1995.”

While the BJP is euphoric, the Congress is teetering on the brink of a political abyss in the Hindi heartland state that was once its bastion.

The current leadership of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh―both septuagenarians―is unlikely to be at the helm of the party in the next assembly polls in 2028. In fact, Nath might soon be asked to step down as state Congress president.

Whether his exit will help the Congress remains unclear, as younger leaders who were seen as his potential successors, such as Jitu Patwari and Sajjan Singh Verma, have lost in the polls. There is no clear second rung in the party and no plan to move forward.

“The main reason for the pathetic loss of the Congress in these polls is the corporate-style politics of Kamal Nath,” said political commentator Dinesh Gupta. “He did not make any efforts to adapt to the ground-level politics of connecting with people. He remained entrenched in his elitist bubble to ensure that his personal interests were not harmed and that his son (MP Nakul Nath) gained politically. The party fought the election on the assumption that people were angry with the BJP government, but made no efforts to check whether that was true on the ground. Actually, even the party’s own leaders were sidelined by Nath and, therefore, no worthwhile second line of leadership has developed after Jyotiraditya Scindia decided to switch sides. No wonder, the grand old party is facing an abysmal future in the state.”

Instead of owning up responsibility for the defeat Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh have, directly or indirectly, blamed it on the voting machines―something quickly dismissed by the BJP as “the frustration of a losing party”. A meeting of all the Congress candidates was held at the Bhopal headquarters of the party, but nothing came of it.

For the BJP’s ground-level workers, it is a day of rejoicing, but they are not relaxing. They have already been directed to start preparing for the Lok Sabha polls. State president Sharma has declared that they will achieve the target of 51 per cent vote share and win all 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state for the prime minister.

As the BJP juggernaut is thundering on towards the Lok Sabha target, the Congress, seemingly, stands still.