Congress has the edge in Telangana, followed by BJP

TELANGANA & ANDHRA PRADESH

While united, they played a vital role in government formation and political stability at the national level. Even after the bifurcation into Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the two Telugu speaking states remain key players in national politics.

With a combined strength of 42 seats―25 in Andhra Pradesh and 17 in Telangana―the two states offer contrasting opportunities to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and the INDIA bloc shepherded by the Congress. Three regional parties are in the fray as well, with the oldest one being the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) set up in 1982 and led by Nara Chandrababu Naidu. It is followed by the Telangana/Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) founded by K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) in 2001. The Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP), the ruling party in Andhra Pradesh, was set up in 2011 by Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy.

The Lok Sabha elections in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh and the simultaneous polls to the Andhra assembly could determine the political future of at least two leaders and their parties: KCR, the 70-year-old leader who played a major role in Telangana getting statehood in 2014, and Naidu, the 73-year-old three-time chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, who was once hailed as the poster boy of Hyderabad’s IT revolution. Both leaders and their respective parties could face an existential crisis if they fail to do well in the polls.

Telangana is set for a triangular contest, with the Congress enjoying an upper hand following its victory in the recent assembly elections. Next comes the BJP, which is energised by its electoral performances in the assembly and the Hyderabad civic body polls.

The decline of the BRS has opened up the field in Telangana. KCR enjoyed a smooth run for nearly a decade. After riding high on people’s aspirations that he will usher in a ‘Bangaru (golden) Telangana’, KCR literally drove himself to a massive defeat in the assembly elections held in November 2023. An arrogant, family-led rule; a heavily centralised governance model with the chief minister remaining unavailable to party leaders and people alike; major corruption allegations like in the case of the 01.47 lakh crore Kaleshwaram lift irrigation project and the failure to honour promises made to dalits and unemployed youth were the key factors why the electorate, especially in the rural parts of the state, threw KCR out and welcomed the Congress, led by a spirited A. Revanth Reddy. Despite his past association with the TDP, Revanth won Sonia Gandhi’s trust and managed to unite the strong Reddy community behind the Congress. A solid performance in the Lok Sabha elections will help him bolster his credentials and consolidate the growth of Hyderabad as well.

With just 39 seats in the 119-member assembly, the BRS is in disarray and it was not easy for the party to find strong candidates to contest the Lok Sabha polls. It is even finding it difficult to manage a tacit understanding with the BJP, which it has done in the past. The BRS also faces the threat of defection from its MPs and MLAs. The exodus of leaders and workers will intensify if the party is unable to win a few Lok Sabha seats. In the absence of the Telangana sentiment and being out of power, the BRS, which drew its cadres and leaders from the TDP and the Congress could soon face hostile takeover bids from national parties. Moreover, the party is led by Velamas who constitute just three per cent of the state’s population.

While the BRS leadership appears to be in disarray, a trip across Telangana shows that all is not lost for the party. In the Zahirabad Lok Sabha constituency, despite the defection of the sitting MP B.B. Patil to the BJP, supporters of the BRS have not given up. Ashappa, sitting on a chair outside his thatched house, spoke fondly about KCR. “I am surviving because of KCR’s schemes that give me pension and medical help. I would back the party,” said the 70-year-old.

The Zahirabad constituency comprises a mixed electorate with a sizeable percentage of Marathi and Kannada speakers because of the proximity to Maharashtra and Karnataka. It also has a significant Muslim population. The constituency is witnessing a triangular contest with a rising Congress and an ambitious BJP, while the BRS hopes to retain the seat with a fresh candidate.

Zahirabad is a sugarcane-growing region and has a large presence of the Mahindra Group manufacturing tractors and automobiles. “There is hope that the National Industrial Manufacturing Zone (NIMZ), which has attracted the aerospace industry and Hyundai, will develop fast and provide jobs to the youth,” said Bhagwan Rao Jadhav, who is one of the main dealers of automotive parts to the Mahindras.

In Algole, a remote village in the region, we met Akheel Ahmed, a computer science graduate who runs a small shop. Ahmed, who was forced to run the shop because of the untimely death of his father, blamed the government for not helping small businesses, not improving interior roads and for ignoring health care infrastructure.

In the BJP camp, there is some confusion about the candidate. Shivaji Patil, a former member of a local body, appeared surprised by B.B. Patil’s sudden entry as the BJP candidate. “We were fully backing the candidature of M. Jaipal Reddy, son of eight-time MP and former Union minister M. Baga Reddy,” he said. “He would have made the BJP a strong favourite, but we were surprised at the last-minute announcement of Patil.” In the neighbouring Medak constituency, under which both Gajwel and Siddipet assembly seats represented by KCR and his nephew Harish Rao fall, the BRS thinks that it has a chance.

The BJP had improved its vote share in the recent assembly elections to 14 per cent with eight seats (in 2018, it was seven per cent with a solitary seat) and has four MPs. But, like the BRS, it was also finding it difficult to get winnable candidates for the Lok Sabha polls. The desperation in Zahirabad was also seen in Nagarkurnool, where it nominated P. Bharat, the son of P. Ramulu, a BRS MP who defected recently. The party is also using it as an opportunity to decimate the BRS.

With Union Home Minister Amit Shah setting a target of 10 seats, the BJP is repeating most of its sitting MPs. In Hyderabad, a stronghold of Asaduddin Owaisi and his All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), the party has fielded K. Madhavi Latha, social media star and chairperson of a hospital group.

The mood in the Congress camp is decidedly upbeat. The party is confident of hitting the double-digit mark, up from the three seats it won in 2019. It is expected to benefit substantially from Muslim votes; the AIMIM’s established strategy, too, is to align with the ruling party.

In neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, the national parties are only secondary players. As we drove into the city of Vijayawada, the nerve centre of business and politics in Andhra Pradesh, a huge statue of Dr B.R. Ambedkar, the chief architect of the Indian Constitution, grabbed our attention. The 125ft statue takes up much of the ‘Swaraj Maidan’, the only large space left for big events in the city. The ground had played host to historic meetings attended by Mahatma Gandhi and was among the favourite venues of former chief minister N.T. Rama Rao.

The statue was inaugurated in January this year by Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy. However, it was Naidu, who announced the construction of the statue to commemorate the 125th birth anniversary of Ambedkar. He laid the foundation stone for the statue and wanted it to come up near the new secretariat in Amaravati, the proposed capital city. After his landslide victory in 2019, Jagan ditched Amaravati as the capital in favour of his three capitals project―Visakhapatnam (executive), Amaravati (legislative) and Kurnool (judicial). He built the Ambedkar statue in Vijayawada and unveiled it in quick time.

With its well-managed civic amenities, Vijayawada looks clean and attractive. In the Swachh Sarvekshan Awards for clean cities, it finished sixth last year. But election fever means that the city is full of posters and flex banners of candidates. In contrast, the much hyped Amaravati, which was sold as a city of the future by the Naidu government, presents a picture of neglect. Jagan’s government has turned a blind eye to the development of the city, located close to Vijayawada, and even ordered the demolition of Naidu’s lakefront house on grounds of encroachment. The TDP office appeared subdued, while Jagan’s house in Tadepalli on the Krishna river front and the YSRCP office are humming with excitement and activity.

The big fight in Andhra Pradesh is clearly between the experienced Naidu and the well-entrenched Jagan. Naidu will have to muster his considerable political experience, vision and tactics to breach the fortress Jagan has built on a slew of welfare schemes that he claims have helped millions of poor families.

Jagan is banking heavily on the implementation of his poll promises from 2019 on key issues such as food, health, shelter and education, which gave him 151 of 175 seats in the assembly and 22 of 25 seats in the Lok Sabha. On the campaign trail, he has been reeling off how his government fulfilled the promises and also substantially improved the quality of life of the poor, scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, backward classes and minorities.

Karuna Nagadeshi from Nunna in Machilipatnam constituency is one of the beneficiaries of Jagan’s schemes. On December 25, 2020, she got a cent (48 square yards) of land under the Jagan Anna housing scheme for women. She also got 01.8 lakh to build a one-bedroom tenement. Nagadeshi runs a small shop and lives with her plumber husband and their two kids. The Jagan Anna colony in Machilipatnam has around 5,000 plots where nearly 500 houses have been constructed. While Nagadeshi is worried about roads and drainage, she is happy that the colony has power and water supply. The Jagan government claims to have distributed housing deeds to 31 lakh women.

On our way back from Vijayawada, we met a group of people near the Nuziveedu town, who appeared worried about the rising unemployment. “Yes, the schemes of the Jagan government are benefitting the poor,” they said. “But where are the jobs for skilled workers like us? With no industries coming up, we have no work. There is very little construction and infrastructure activity. The cost of living has gone up, too.”

As we drove further ahead we saw a clean and spacious mutton shop. Syed Alauddin, the owner, said the space was allocated during Naidu’s rule. “Consistent support has been coming from various government schemes to our family,” he said. “Our children are educated. We are able to run our business well in the last five years and we are happy with the governance.”

Naidu, meanwhile, is betting big on the grand alliance that he has stitched together with the BJP and the Jana Sena Party. Naidu has had successful coalitions with the BJP in the past. He won in 1999 and 2014 as part of the NDA. But his relationship with the saffron party may not be the same this time. During Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s time, Naidu could have his way on account of his good equations with the prime minister and also because the BJP did not have a majority of its own. But he has never had a good rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Once the Modi-led BJP got a clear majority, he kept Naidu at bay. The relations got strained to a point that he walked out of the NDA months before the 2019 elections. Before leaving, he launched a blistering attack on Modi for ignoring Andhra Pradesh’s demands after the formation of Telangana.

Many experts, however, believe that by stitching together yet another coalition with the BJP, Naidu might have exposed many of his weak flanks. The TDP supremo seems to have landed himself in a ‘do or die’ situation. The visible pro-Kamma tilt of the TDP, the failure of Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh to carry forward the mantle as Naidu’s successor, the inability to gain public sympathy even after spending 52 days behind bars in the alleged ‘Skill Development’ scam and the failure of his pet project of making Amaravati the state capital have all contributed to the TDP’s problems. Even Naidu’s frequent trips to Delhi to solicit a tie-up with Modi and Shah have not really gone down well with the electorate. Moreover, Jagan seems to enjoy an upper hand with his pro-poor schemes. Everything will depend on how skilfully Naidu can turn the narrative in his favour in the next couple of weeks. Much of the popular Telugu media is solidly behind him, which could be of some help.

Another good news for Naidu is the fact that a section of the dominant Reddy community, especially in Nellore and Guntur districts, have rebelled against Jagan, while the rich Kammas, the traditional supporters of the TDP, are solidly behind the party. Therefore, Kapu votes could turn out to be decisive this time, along with Christian votes. Observers believe that some of the Christian votes could be taken away by Jagan’s sister Y.S. Sharmila, who now heads the Congress in Andhra Pradesh. The Kapus belong to different sub-castes and are usually not united in their voting preferences. But if the entire Kapu community supports the TDP, Jagan will have a tough time.

TDP leader M.V. Mysura Reddy said anti-incumbency, opposition to Jagan’s authoritarian style of governance and the rift within the family could hurt Jagan. He pointed towards how taxes had gone up to support welfare schemes and also criticised the outsized role of YSRCP functionaries in distributing the benefits of the welfare measures.

Jagan will be careful in dealing with government employees, the middle and the upper middle class, the small businesses and teachers as he seems to have antagonised them with his pro-poor policies. He has also neglected investments in industry, job creation and road infrastructure. To generate resources to fund welfare schemes, he has resorted to measures that have pushed up prices. Whether the opposition led by Naidu will be able to exploit these factors and will Jagan be able to convert the popularity of his schemes into votes will determine the outcome of the elections.

The BJP and the Congress were decimated in the 2019 elections. The only interest this time for the BJP is to get a few seats in the Lok Sabha and a foothold in state politics. At the national level, it has enjoyed the support of both the TDP and the YSRCP. Jagan, interestingly, has maintained a tactful relationship with the Modi government, backing it on key issues and not being severely critical.

At the moment, it is advantage Jagan in the highly caste dominated Andhra politics. The chief minister has succeeded in creating a pro-poor, pro-women and pro-dalit image. He has got his social engineering right and with the TDP aligning with the BJP, his party could also get the Muslim votes.

The author is a senior journalist.