Can a united Congress in Rajasthan exploit divisions in BJP?

RAJASTHAN

Despite his best efforts, Ashok Gehlot failed to retain power in the 2023 assembly elections in Rajasthan. Contrary to the popular belief that the former chief minister’s welfare schemes and freebies would bring rich dividends, the Congress lost badly to the BJP.

The infighting in the Congress between Gehlot and his arch rival Sachin Pilot added to the party’s woes. But with Gehlot and Pilot deciding to bury the hatchet for the time being, the Congress’s fortunes could improve in the Lok Sabha polls. “The Congress has a chance of doing very well in at least eight of 25 seats in the state,” said senior journalist Anil Sharma.

Congress spokesperson Swarnim Chaturvedi said the INDIA bloc would give the BJP a run for its money in Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Tonk, Bharatpur, Dausa, Jaipur (Rural) and Nagaur. The selection of candidates in these seats could make a difference. For instance, in Churu, the Congress candidate is Rahul Kaswan, the sitting MP, who crossed over from the BJP. In Nagaur, the INDIA bloc has fielded Hanuman Beniwal of the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, a strong Jat leader who had won from here in alliance with the BJP in 2019.

State Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra said the BJP’s polarisation politics was unlikely to work in these seats. “There is anger among farmers who were not allowed to go to participate in the farmers’ agitation at the Delhi border. Even the Ram Temple card does not work.” Dotasra plays a balancing role for the Congress, which is recovering from the open strife between Gehlot and Pilot. “The dedication and commitment of our party workers have been amazing and you will see that the pains they have taken will give positive results,” he said.

A major disadvantage for the BJP is its top leadership’s decision to sideline former chief minister Vasundhara Raje, who is seen by insiders and opposition alike as the “real leader”. Although her son, Dushyant Singh, has been given a ticket, the party rank and file believe that she has been denied her due. It appears that just like in the case of former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara’s popularity went against her. The BJP’s top brass, comprising Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, does not seem to approve of leaders who do not need propping up from Delhi.

Political observers in Jaipur do not rule out the possibility of a quiet backlash that could jolt the BJP. A large chunk of the party workers are not impressed by the leadership’s choice of Vasundhara’s replacement, Bhajan Lal Sharma. All that he had to his credit was a district presidentship of the party, from where he rose to contest his first assembly elections and was then handpicked as the chief minister of a large and politically important state like Rajasthan.

Party workers believe that the new regime is being dominated by the bureaucracy and see the existing system as Delhi’s obvious design to run the state by remote control. The new chief secretary, for instance, was said to be handpicked by Delhi.

The crisis within the ruling front may have created a more level-playing field for the Lok Sabha polls, although the BJP’s state leadership says the party has a clear advantage. “We will maintain our cent per cent tally that we achieved in 2014 and 2019,” said Arun Chaturvedi, former state chief of the BJP. Asked about the discontent within the BJP about offering more sops to those who cross over to the party, Chaturvedi said all switch-overs had been unconditional. “Those who have crossed over to our side have neither asked for anything nor do they have any expectations. They have joined us unconditionally, because they are disgusted and see no future for the Congress.”

BJP state president C.P. Joshi refuted the Congress charge that several welfare schemes introduced by Gehlot were discontinued by the new government. “No scheme meant for the larger good of the people has been discontinued. In fact, the monthly pension of Rs1,000 has been revised to Rs1,150. Even the old pension scheme is being continued. We are providing cooking gas cylinders for Rs450 and special meals to the poor under the Annapoorna Rasoi scheme,” he said. The new government is, however, having a tough time maintaining Gehlot’s medical insurance scheme that offered treatment up to Rs25 lakh. Although the Ayushman Bharat plan is in place, it provides only Rs5 lakh cover.

The Congress believes that compared with the last two elections, the field looks more equitable this time. It hopes that the outcome of the polls could, therefore, spring a few surprises.