Can Tejashwi Yadav defeat Nitish Kumar-backed NDA in Bihar?

BIHAR

TEJASHWI YADAV IS writing a tell-all book. It might include the details of what made Nitish Kumar switch sides (yet again) and launch a broadside against Lalu Prasad, who had helped him survive many a trouble. Nitish, however, is in no mood to reminisce about the good old times, and has, instead, ramped up his attack, comparing the 15 years of Lalu and his own tenure since 2005. He even penned an emotional letter to the public ahead of the second phase of polling, addressing concerns about the state's past governance issues. If politics were a game of checkers, Bihar never ceases to surprise.

The contest between the NDA and the INDIA bloc is probably the most intense in Bihar. The low voter turnout in the first phase has particularly bothered the NDA. It has a lot to lose, as it had won 39 out of 40 seats last time. BJP national president J.P. Nadda called an urgent meeting in Delhi with party general secretaries to activate the party's booth cadres to increase the polling percentage.

All parties talk of close and tough contests all across Bihar. In the broader sweep, Nitish has an uncanny ability to pick the winning side. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, he was with the NDA and it won 39 seats. In 2020, NDA won the assembly polls, even though Lalu's Rashtriya Janata Dal emerged as the single largest party winning 75 seats. In 2015, when Nitish was with the RJD, they formed the government―winning 151 out of 243 seats.

Stronger together: Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav at an election campaign rally | PTI

But the victories have come at a price, especially in the last decade. While Nitish continues to be the chief minister, his party has been losing ground. The Janata Dal (United) is no longer the big brother in the alliance with the BJP. However, no party has been able to present a reliable alternative to him. “He is the central figure in the elections,” said former JD(U) minister Neeraj Kumar. “That is why he has been chosen to attack Lalu's dynastic rule.”

The BJP has been experimenting with its state leadership to find the right talent. Samrat Choudhary, deputy chief minister and state party chief, ticks many boxes. The OBC leader with mass appeal is a potential chief minister candidate if the BJP gets the numbers in next year’s assembly polls.

In the complex caste calculus of Bihar, the NDA has the numbers, with Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan also in its fold. Nitish has crafted a new category of extreme backward castes, which now constitutes more than 36 per cent of the electorate. His own Kurmi-Koeri community, at 6 per cent, is the second largest caste in the state after Yadavs. The upper castes, who have 15 per cent share, support the BJP. The dalits, who are above 19 per cent, pick their side depending on the trend.

Unlike in other Hindi heartland states, jobs are an election issue in Bihar. The RJD has been harping on about it and making promises. But Choudhary said the RJD was not able to regularise even one post in the departments held by its ministers in the 17 months of the Nitish-Tejashwi government. “We are committed to our promise of 20 lakh jobs,” he added.

The BJP is relying heavily on the Modi magic, which has thinned out the caste differences in the state. “Ram is important,” said Arun Kumar, a graduate preparing for civil services in Patna. “Modi has brought focus on our identity. We are able to see our past with respect. In the Lok Sabha elections, he towers over others.” What about jobs? “Jobs are an issue, too, in the elections,” he said.

The NDA is facing a stiff challenger in Tejashwi. He is playing his cards cleverly, making sure that jobs and development remain topics of discussion. “Lalu Prasad stopped the rath of L.K Advani; Tejashwi will stop Modi’s chariot,” said Mrityunjay Kumar, spokesperson for the RJD.

As the campaign progressed, Tejashwi has nuanced his strategy. He does not show any bitterness to Nitish. “He is my chacha, of my father’s age. I will always respect him. There are others who are making him do things. I will reveal this in my book,” he said. Even when Nitish ridiculed Lalu for dynastic rule and the number of children he fathered, Tejashwi kept his cool so that his campaign was not bogged down by his father’s image. “We want to keep the focus on jobs and development, so we don’t want to get drawn into a slanging match,” he said.

Tejashwi crisscrosses the state in a helicopter and has emerged as the sole campaigner for the INDIA bloc. In fact, he makes sure that no challenger emerges, be it Kanhaiya Kumar or Pappu Yadav. Tejashwi camped in Purnea, where Pappu Yadav is contesting as an independent, and campaigned against him. “Please make sure you only vote for INDIA or NDA candidates,” he said in Purnea.

The grand alliance of the RJD, the Congress, the left parties and the Vikasheel Insaan Party relies on caste numbers where the Yadavs (14 per cent) and Muslims (17.7 per cent) are the dominant groups. The grand alliance has given tickets to youth, women, and candidates from all caste groups for maximum traction. Tejashwi also has to ensure that the Congress, which contests in nine seats, does not pull the alliance down as it is in direct contest with the BJP in some constituencies.

Social justice is a plank that is being strongly marketed by the INDIA bloc. The promise of conducting caste census and giving benefits according to the numerical strength has resonance on the ground. The BJP says it has always supported caste census in an attempt to deflect attention away from the subject.

Unlike in 2014 and 2019, when there were clear waves in favour of the BJP and Modi, a distinct emotional issue is absent this time, said B.N. Prasad, sociologist and political analyst and head of the department of sociology and social anthropology at A.N. Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna.

More than 30 per cent of Bihar's population is young and they want jobs. “Even the slogan of 400 paar has its own pitfalls,” said Prasad. “Like in 2015, when a statement of the RSS chief on reservation led to anti-BJP sentiment, the 400 figure has caused consternation among dalits, the marginalised and the minorities that the Constitution will be changed. That is why the BJP has to say it will not change it. It can hamper the party's chances.”

Whatever be the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls, it will certainly have an impact on the assembly polls in the state in 2025. The RJD says the results of the Lok Sabha polls will be surprising, and that the JD(U) will begin to unravel and its MLAs will make a beeline for other parties.

The JD(U) is keeping its fingers crossed and banking on its partner to pull it off. But Nitish does not like being cornered. Pressure will mount on him as both the BJP and Paswan are expected to get assertive after the elections. But then, Tejashwvi is keeping the door ajar.

Bihar has been full of surprises, and everybody is waiting for the next one.