Does Left-Congress team have a say in Bengal's Modi vs Mamata battle?

Ahead of the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections, Mamata Banerjee made an interesting statement. Addressing a rally in Bangaon constituency, she said: “We are not allowing the NRC and we do not accept the CAA. If they want to give unconditional citizenship, I do not have any objection.”

This was a significant shift from her previous position of completely rejecting the Citizenship Amendment (Act), 2019, whose rules were implemented earlier this year.

Bangaon constituency, which is along the India-Bangladesh border, houses a large number of Matuas. This is a persecuted scheduled caste community from Bangladesh that is seeking a permanent home in India. And so, the five crore Matuas in Bengal saw the CAA as a solution. The BJP had won the Matua-dominated seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 assembly elections.

The CAA is also an important factor in seats where Muslims, who form 30 per cent of the state’s population, can influence the results. This was underscored by Home Minister Amit Shah. At a rally in Ranaghat constituency ahead of the fourth phase, he said that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was opposing the CAA to protect her “vote bank”. “Mamata Banerjee’s government is giving place to infiltrators, but she opposes giving citizenship to people from the Matua community,” he said. “We will give citizenship to every refugee, this is Narendra Modi’s word.”

The BJP has continuously described Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh as “infiltrators”, while calling Hindu immigrants “refugees”. The tactic to give the law a communal colour, however, could end up benefiting the Trinamool in Muslim-dominated seats. In the 2021 assembly elections, for instance, the Muslims voted as a bloc for the party because of fears about the CAA and NRC.

“This shows that the CAA today is nothing but a political tool with which the parties are trying to increase their vote share,” said Subhamoy Maitra, a professor at the Indian Statistical Institute in Kolkata. “The doubts of Matuas about the uncertainties they face and the legal complications that may arise if they seek citizenship under the CAA have not been addressed by either party.”

The Trinamool has challenged the idea that the CAA, once fully implemented, could be a game changer for the BJP in Bengal. This is evident in Thakurbari, the spiritual hub of the Matua community, from where the demand first began. Residents there are now visibly uncomfortable talking about the CAA. Though they stand to gain from it, complexities surrounding the act have made many Matuas reluctant to apply online. Apparently, they need to prove their original Bangladeshi nationality, which seems to be a problem for many.

The CAA aside, Mamata’s party seems to have also weathered the storm that arose from allegations of sexual exploitation against local Trinamool leaders in the villages of North 24 Parganas district’s Sandeshkhali I and II blocks.

A series of sting and other videos have challenged the BJP narrative that women are unsafe in Sandeshkhali, and West Bengal, under Mamata. In a sting operation, a local BJP leader in Sandeshkhali is seen claiming that “false” complaints of rape were registered against Trinamool leaders for money. In another video, a woman claims her mother-in-law was tricked into signing a blank paper, later used for a false rape complaint.

Mamata and her party have pounced on the opportunity to attack the BJP and other opposition parties. “Women are coming out and saying they were made to sign papers on false pretenses,” the chief minister said at a rally in Kalyani, part of Bangaon constituency. “Should only the small local leader get punished for this? Shouldn’t the real conspirators and the people who asked [in the sting video] ‘Do you need rifle, bombs and money?’ also get punished?

“Guarantee babu (referring to ‘Modi ki guarantee’) came and said the entire country is talking about Sandeshkhali. I said the truth always wins. Lies cannot stay forever.”

The BJP has claimed that the videos are fake and were created using AI. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not bring up the videos during his first visit to the state after they surfaced. “The Trinamool has started a new game with Sandeshkhali,” he said at a rally in Barrackpore constituency. “It wants to save Sheikh Shahjahan (an accused Trinamool leader) for vote bank. The whole country saw what happened in Sandeshkhali. The Trinamool is intimidating the women of Sandeshkhali now.”

With elections over in the first four phases, the Trinamool and the BJP are in a heated battle, challenging each other’s narratives on the two major electoral issues, the CAA and Sandeshkhali.

For the Trinamool, its greatest asset and crowd magnet remains Mamata, especially among women. “Mamata Banerjee is a cult,” said Kirti Azad, the Trinamool candidate in Bardhaman-Durgapur constituency. “She is an emotion. She is not just a chief minister, but also a great lady. She knows that if the lady of the house is happy, then everybody is happy. She knows that if the girl child is well-read, then the entire family is literate.”

Azad’s seat is a part of Bengal’s largest industrial belt. However, lack of big industries in the past few decades has damaged the region’s potential. But rather than sharing his plans to bring industries and investment, the former Indian cricketer has been asking for votes in the name of Mamata and her welfare schemes.

It was the same in Krishnanagar, where Mahua Moitra, an extremely popular face in national politics, has also relied on Mamata instead of outlining her own work in the past five years.The party’s star campaigners, including Abhishek Banerjee and Tollywood superstar Dev, have done the same.

Political experts, commoners and even the BJP voters admit that the Trinamool’s fate depends on Mamata. Her welfare measures, especially Lakshmir Bhandar (financial aid for poor women), have been so popular that even the BJP has had to support it. BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar recently said that the party would increase it threefold once it is in power.

Though the Trinamool’s image has been dented because of Sandeshkhali and allegations of several scams, Mamata has been telling voters in rallies that “this is the vote for Delhi and this is a fight between Mamata and the BJP”.

The BJP, on the other hand, has made it a battle between Mamata and Modi. The prime minister’s efforts to make India a superpower, his stature as a global leader and his vision to make India a developed nation feature prominently in the party’s campaign.

Hindutva politics is also playing its part. At a rally in Barrackpore, Modi, who had begun his address with the slogan of ‘Joy Maa Durga’, had to stop his speech midway as the crowd started chanting ‘Jai Shri Ram’. Modi, too, joined in. He then tried to raise issues indigenous to the Barrackpore constituency, such as shutting down of local jute mills, but the crowd seemed to be in a hindutva trance.

At Amit Shah’s roadshow in Asansol constituency’s Raniganj, there were open calls for a Hindu rashtra. “If you want a Hindu rashtra, vote for Modi ji,” the announcer said before Shah arrived.

The BJP is relying on retaining its dominance in North Bengal, which it had swept in 2019. The elections there are over and, despite internal feuds that surfaced during ticket distribution in Darjeeling and Coochbehar, party leaders were confident. “We will surely get an advantage because of all the allegations against the Trinamool government,” said Dilip Ghosh, senior BJP leader and the party’s candidate in Bardhaman-Durgapur. “Only the BJP has a clean political image. Narendra Modi’s vision is to end corruption in politics. So, people fed up with the Trinamool’s corruption will surely vote for us.”

Given the tense environment across the state, even experts are finding it hard to get a sense of what awaits on June 4. Asked about what he makes of the 18 constituencies that have voted, Subhamoy Maitra said, “In the absence of post-poll survey data, it is impossible to predict anything this time.”

He, however, said that some seats in the state could surprisingly see a triangular fight. “In five or six constituencies, including in Malda and Murshidabad districts, the left-Congress alliance can enter the equation. The remaining seats would see a bipolar contest.”

Sujan Chakraborty, the INDIA bloc’s candidate from Dum Dum, said the alliance had provided an option to the educated and thoughtful citizens of Bengal. “People see that only the left can protect the Constitution and secular nature of India from the BJP and rescue Bengal from the corrupt Trinamool,” said the CPI(M) leader. “This is not a bipolar election. We are very much in play.”