Edlapally Bharathi, 43, was on the hills of Tirumala, seeking peace not God, as election results trickled in. Hailing from Dhiguva Buruju village in Chittoor, she left school after the fifth grade and later became a social activist and author of several books. Her first book, Edari Bathukulu (Dry Lives) written in 2018, is about the sad state of Madiga dalit women like her. The YSR Congress Party had counted marginalised rural women like them as its vote bank in Andhra Pradesh. They were the biggest beneficiaries of the Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy government’s direct cash transfer schemes; more than Rs2 lakh crore was disbursed in five years.
“They may temporarily feel happy with cash schemes and buy gold or other items. But how will it change anyone’s life in the long term?”said Bharathi, expressing her yearning for systemic change. Perhaps many women voters, who outnumber male voters, felt likewise and dealt a massive blow to the ruling party. It got just 11 of 175 seats in the legislative assembly and 4 in the Lok Sabha, while the alliance of the Telugu Desam Party, the BJP and the JanaSena Party won 164 seats in the assembly and 21 of 25 Lok Sabha seats, surpassing their own expectations.
The YSRCP had won 151 seats in 2019, but this time all the ministers, except the chief minister and Peddireddy Ramachandra Reddy, bit the dust. Jagan’s constant appeals to castes and communities did not work. Every campaign speech of his began with these words: “My scheduled caste, scheduled tribe, backward caste and minority brothers and sisters…”Of 36 seats reserved for the scheduled castes and tribes, he won 4.
Bharathi’s village is in the Rayalaseema region. Both Jagan Mohan and TDP leader N. Chandrababu Naidu also hail from Rayalaseema. In 2019, the TDP won just 3 of 52 seats here, while Jagan’s party won with big margins in the rest. This time, it got just seven seats.
Rayalaseema had been its bastion (and a Congress bastion earlier), with the powerful Reddy community intertwined well with Muslims and Christians. (Jagan Mohan is a practising Christian himself.) Surprisingly, the region voted for the TDP, despite its alliance with the BJP.
Bharathi has three children and she worries about what work they and others like them can find in the state. “Society will be a better place to live in if the government ensures jobs for the youth. When students graduate, they should have clarity on what work they can do. It is the government’s responsibility to address this issue,” she said, echoing the sentiments of young voters.
Young voters often blame the government for the lack of new employment opportunities and investments in the state. The JanaSena Party founder, actor Pawan Kalyan, could channel their aspirations and frustrations towards voting for the TDP-led alliance. It was his fans who were most vocal against the ruling party in both online and offline spaces.
The actor had the support of his Kapu community (15 per cent of the electorate), and his influence was largely seen in East and West Godavari in the Coastal Andhra region. Here the ruling party failed to win any seat. His energy, songs and slogans like “Hello AP, Bye-Bye YCP” immensely helped the alliance.
Naidu was chief minister three times earlier (1995-2004 and 2014-2019). He returns to power after a stint in jail last year in a corruption case. Jagan had also captured power after cooling his heels in jail. In 2017, Jagan had walked out of the assembly vowing he would return only as chief minister. And he did. Naidu made the same vow and did the same act in 2021.
Naidu’s return owes much to his shrewdness and strategic alliances. For four years after losing power, he refrained from criticising an unfriendly Modi government. The reticence eventually helped him have the BJP as an ally once again. He also patched up his differences with Pawan Kalyan. Hiring political consultant Prashant Kishor was another useful decision this election time.
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In his campaign narratives against Jagan, Naidu spoke against a sand mafia, a bad liquor policy and an alleged usurpation of private lands using the Land Titling Act. The rift between Jagan and his sister, the state Congress president Sharmila, was also grist for the TDP mill.
Naidu can be expected to finalise Amaravati as the capital of Andhra Pradesh, abandoning Jagan’s triple capital plan. There will be greater focus on Naidu himself at the national level, as the weakened BJP is dependent on the TDP for its survival as the ruling party at the Centre. It is almost a magical rise for the TDP from 2019, when it managed just three Lok Sabha seats. Interestingly, several of the successful BJP candidates are very close to Naidu, as they had worked for the TDP in the past. Effectively, at least 20 MPs from the state are beholden to him. He would use the clout to get Andhra Pradesh a special category status, for which he had stormed out of the National Democratic Alliance in 2018.
People like Bharathi would want him to focus on systemic change, not just welfarism through cash transfer. Maybe it is something that Jagan’s party can chew on while licking its deep wounds.