Republicans are recalibrating their campaign to counter Harris: Ambassador K.C. Singh.

THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE on June 27 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump triggered events, which in 30 days completely metamorphosed the race. Biden’s withdrawal from the contest on July 21, soon thereafter endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, has set off a 100-day sprint to the November 5 election.

Harris moved quickly to garner the support of a majority of the 3,936 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22. The Democratic Party began radiating enthusiasm as its base stirred in support. The surge in contributions, from mostly new donors, reflected revived morale. Rushing to her first public meeting in the battleground state of Wisconsin, Harris tried to capture the public narrative before the expected Republican counter attack. She targeted Trump and outlined her futuristic vision as against his antediluvian rhetoric.

Biden’s self-sacrifice shifted the public narrative from his disabilities and the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13, to the new reality of a younger, feminine and coloured candidate. Subsequent polls showed the gap between Trump and Harris narrowing considerably. Whether this trend will continue or falter after Trump’s retaliatory response remains uncertain.

The US president is chosen indirectly by the 538-member US electoral college. Candidates winning a state bag all its delegates, except in the case of Maine and Nebraska, where winning districts determine delegate allocation. This method can create anomalies, as in 2016, when Hillary Clinton polled 2.8 million votes more than Trump and yet got 227 electoral college votes against Trump’s 304. In fact, 78,000 votes in three counties in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan determined the winner. The same three states swung back to the Democrats when Biden won in 2020, besides Georgia.

Demographic, economic and sociological factors leave open the possibility of about half a dozen states swinging either way and affecting the outcome. Thus, the presidential elections can hinge on “swing states”. That is why the running-mates for vice presidency are selected to compensate for the presidential candidate’s weakness or rival’s strength in one of those states. Although Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance belongs to Ohio, he was chosen for loyalty and not electoral benefits.

Harris has barely three months to plead her case. Trump can be expected to rant, dissimulate and conduct fact-free monologues. Republicans are recalibrating their campaign to counter Harris, by picking her left-leaning, more liberal stance in the presidential primaries of 2020. On the other hand, as a former high profile public prosecutor, she will reiterate her opponent’s 34 felony indictments.

Her baiting worked as Trump abandoned his call for unity, made at the Republican Convention, by publicly dropping his playing “nice” act. Already the conservative Heritage Foundation's document, 'Project 2025', has proposals that can undermine the US constitution. Like the BJP’s “400 paar'' slogan frightened the backward castes and dalits that the real agenda was to stop reservations, it could have some effect on the US polls. In one of his recent speeches, Biden spoke of the danger to civil rights from an “extreme” Trumpian agenda, in league with the Supreme Court. The battle lines are clearly etched. Democrats will argue democracy and the nation are in danger if Trump returns. Republicans will claim to defend the average non-college educated white man’s idea of a Christian and xenophobic way of life.

Republicans will also launch personal attacks on Harris. She must also create space between herself and some of Biden’s policies without appearing disloyal. One such issue is illegal immigration along the southern US border. Republicans call Harris the immigration “tsar” as Biden had tasked her to address the root causes of immigration. However, it was Trump who stymied a bipartisan border deal.

On the Gaza war, Harris has shrewdly created a gap with Biden’s approach. She skipped Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the US Congress, which she normally would have attended as the senate’s chairperson. She met Netanyahu separately, and unnamed Israeli officials were quoted saying she gave them “harsher than expected” treatment. This may appeal to youth and minorities upset over Biden‘s seemingly indulgent approach towards Israel.

Polls indicate that most people do not blame Harris for perceived high inflation and bad economy. Even on issues like abortion and same sex marriage, those with a liberal stance outnumber the opponents. Vance’s diatribe against Harris is also proving counterproductive. Democrats need the votes of women, youth and minorities to balance the non-college educated whites rooting for Trump. Republicans are vulnerable on the abortion issue because most women want reproductive freedom. Harris has strongly defended that right, which Vance opposes.

The latest Fox News poll shows a tightening race in battleground states. However, predicting poll outcomes can be risky. In French parliamentary elections, the right-wing party National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, came third after dominating the recent European parliamentary election. Similarly, in Iran, a liberal candidate won, when, in the run-off phase, an extra turnout of 10 per cent neutralised the conservative candidate’s advantage. Even in India, the BJP claiming to cross 400 seats in parliamentary elections fell 40 seats below the halfway mark.

The November election will show which way the US swings. As a dominant global power, the world’s fate is tied to them.

The author was ambassador to the UAE and Iran, and secretary, ministry of external affairs.