The developments in Bangladesh caught many governments by surprise, but it left a nagging concern for Indian diplomacy. Did India play its cards wrong by giving unflinching support to Sheikh Hasina despite the sentiment in Bangladesh against her autocratic policies? Was Indian diplomacy and strategic policy execution outpaced by the developments? Hasina’s exit symbolised the failure of a major Indian initiative to retain a friendly relationship with Bangladesh.
A new regime that possibly could be inimical to Indian interests could create a situation similar to the Line of Control-Line of Actual Control, resulting in a huge diversion of men and material to guard the borders. Moreover, the narrow ‘Chicken’s Neck’stretch that connects the Indian mainland with the northeast would be very vulnerable from the military point of view. It was Hasina who had cracked down on the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) insurgents who had sneaked into Bangladesh after being evicted from Myanmar and Bhutan.
Anup Chetia, general secretary of the pro-talks ULFA faction told THE WEEK: “The Hasina government’s crackdown from 2009 was singularly responsible for the ULFA leadership to come to the negotiating table with the Indian government. It may not have happened otherwise.”
Now the situation in Bangladesh could raise the bargaining power for the Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction, which is against talks and is holding out from the jungles along the India-Myanmar border.
Insurgency from Manipur could see a spurt as well. One reason why the Meitei-dominated United National Liberation Front (UNLF) surrendered in hundreds in November 2023 and inked a ceasefire agreement with the government was the loss of safe havens in civil war-wracked Myanmar. Bangladesh could now become a new sanctuary for the anti-talks faction of the UNLF and other disgruntled elements. An exodus of mainly Hindus and Buddhists from Bangladesh to the northeastern states may pose another challenge.
The release of rightist Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Begum Khaleda Zia from jail and the likely return of her son Tarique Rahman make matters more challenging for India. BNP is closely allied with the Pakistan-backed Jamaat-e-Islami.
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Veena Sikri, former Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh, said that the regime change in Bangladesh was carefully planned for a long time and the student movement was a mere vehicle. “Till July 15, the student movement was completely peaceful. Hasina had accepted the demands of the students,”she said. “But things took a turn for the worse after the Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamic Chhatrashibir and top BNP leaders took over the movement. As for the army, we always knew there was a strong Jamaat cell in the army.”
Sikri also pointed to Hasina’s recent China visit, which was cut short apparently because she was upset with Beijing’s failure to keep its promise of financial aid and at the “lack of appropriate protocol”accorded to her.
“I was puzzled why it happened because China doesn’t do this. Now I know the answer. Because they had decided to wipe their hands off Hasina,”said Sikri. “So it goes much deeper.”
Without doubt, India’s ‘neighbourhood first’policy, which has been the BJP-led NDA government’s vital diplomatic plank, is in for a serious reverse. The latest developments also put into question the prospects of the ‘India-Bangladesh Shared Vision for Future’ agreement signed during Hasina’s visit to Delhi in June.