Instability in Bangladesh, with eager foreign players ready for a role, is not in India’s interest

Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka with no option but to resign and leave the country. The military chiefs gave her an ultimatum that they were not willing to enforce the curfew and would not fire on the protesters. The chaotic situation, arising from students’ protesting government job reservation, had snowballed into a political agitation demanding Hasina’s resignation. The chiefs arranged security and logistical support for her to go to the president, tender her resignation and fly out of the country in 45 minutes.

The military’s role in refusing to clamp down on the violence encouraged the political cadres of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). Did the military chiefs decide on this course of action because the rank and file of the defence forces, belonging to the younger generation, had turned against Hasina? The military chiefs might have come under internal pressure to act as they finally did. An anti-Hasina social media campaign by retired military officers also queered the pitch for the chiefs. Questions are being raised by observers who are wondering if the army chief, married to Hasina’s second cousin and appointed by her, turned against her for political reasons or the pressure of circumstances. There have been changes in the army leadership with one general being sacked and several others transferred.

In 2007, the then army chief had tried to implement the so-called ‘Minus Two’ formula in which the military-backed caretaker government took over, following nationwide chaos fomented by fighting among political cadres of the main political parties. The formula was meant to exile the two “warring begums” (Hasina and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia) and nurture a new leadership. Then Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was encouraged to promote a new political party. That effort failed and led to enduring bitterness between Hasina and Yunus. When Hasina returned to power in 2009, she foisted hundreds of cases against Yunus, and much of his time was spent in the courts.

Yunus is in the news again as the head of the interim government, following a demand raised by the student leaders. He is internationally known and has close ties with many western countries and India. He is not a professional politician and does not have experience in running a government and will require help from his cabinet members who are likely to be retired professionals from various fields. Some comments made by Yunus saying he was hurt by India’s calling the events in Bangladesh as its “internal matter” and why India supported Hasina and allowed her to come to India reflect his bitterness towards Hasina. As the head of the interim government, he has bigger challenges ahead for which India will be willing to help.

Hasina was the longest serving prime minister of Bangladesh and the longest serving woman prime minister internationally. It is surprising that with her political experience she misjudged and mishandled the student’s agitation. Misguided policies by the government in the form of instructing the Chattra League (student wing of Awami League) to attack the protesters, permitting the police to use firearms and derogatory remarks added fuel to the violence. If this decision had not been taken and if they had expedited the Supreme Court decision, the students would have accepted the judgment and called off the protest.

But the violence and around 200 deaths had ignited a fire which spread rapidly. It was too tempting an opportunity for Hasina’s political opponents. The BNP and the JeI have been smarting from being excluded from power for more than 15 years and they capitalised on the students’ protests successfully. JeI cadres from the Islami Chhatra Shibir, its students’ wing, the Jatiyobadi Chhatra Dal, the BNP’s students’ wing, Hefazet-ul Islam’s madrassa students poured into the streets and caused mayhem. Such violence must have been planned for quite some time and these cadres are trained for such violence. What began as a genuine students’ protest mutated into a violent political agitation to overthrow the government.

Several months ago, Hasina had said in an interview that “conspiracies” had been planned to topple her government and expressed fears that she could be assassinated like her father and family members. She also said that a “white man’s” plot was afoot to carve a “Christian country” out of Bangladesh and Myanmar and she was told that no one would oppose her election in January 2024, if she allowed a foreign country to build an airbase in Bangladesh. What she had in mind is not clear, but she was obviously perturbed about some information that led her to make this public.

After Hasina’s ouster, speculation has intensified about a foreign-based regime-change conspiracy. Pakistan’s ISI’s role has cropped up and so has the name of Tarique Rahman, Khaleda’s son and political successor, living in exile in London since 2007 and the JeI. American nudging and Chinese funding have also been mentioned in media reports. Social media monitors have reported a steady flow of adverse information and comments mostly from handles in western countries and Pakistan.

Hasina and Pakistan never got along and Pakistan blamed her for decimating the JeI leadership which functioned as its fifth column in Bangladesh and collaborated with the genocidal Pakistani army during the Liberation War of 1971.

The statements issued by Islamabad after Hasina’s ouster are noteworthy for their warmth. The US spokesperson called the protests “lawful” and patted the army for abjuring force. There was no censure of the military takeover. The US would be happy that finally it has achieved what it had set its sights on―regime change via its proxy Pakistan. Evidence of American encouragement to Pakistan are apparent in the red carpet treatment to the Pakistan army and ISI chiefs a few months ago. The doubling of the tranche of IMF loan and $100 million in bilateral economic assistance show that carrots were on offer if Pakistan played ball. Pakistan played ball with Tarique Rahman and BNP/JeI supporters in the diaspora and in Bangladesh. Ironically, in a way, Pakistan, China and the US, allies that opposed the creation of Bangladesh, are again on the same page.

For India, the immediate issues are managing the safe return of its citizens, stopping the violence against Hindus and managing border security. Instability in Bangladesh is not in India’s interest. It will impact trade, travel, investments and economic growth. We can expect to see a quick engagement with the interim government once it is in place to assess the situation. Bangladesh has entered an unstable transition phase, increasing India’s neighbourhood challenge.

The author was high commissioner to Bangladesh.