Sri Lanka: Anura Kumara Dissanayake is the surprising frontrunner in the presidential poll

The statue of S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, the former prime minister who led Sri Lanka through several political upheavals, stands on a pedestal at the iconic Galle Face Green, the famous city park near the presidential secretariat in Colombo. It was from here that the people of Sri Lanka started the movement to overthrow the powerful Rajapaksas two years ago. Today, however, an uneasy calm prevails on the streets of Colombo as Sri Lanka gets ready to elect its next president on September 21. Despite the presence of 39 candidates―a few of them offering some fairly revolutionary policy options―the 1.7 crore voters of Sri Lanka do not appear really excited.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) is contesting as an independent, backed by a major section of legislators from former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Also in the fray are opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Mahinda’s son, Namal. Sajith’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has aligned with some of the prominent parties and has the support of the Tamil and the Muslim minorities, who form 11 per cent and 9.7 per cent of the population, respectively. Anura is a Marxist-Leninist leader from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the main constituent of the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition.

While Ranil, Sajith and Anura are the frontrunners, Namal, the youngest in the fray, has made the contest tough for them. He is the official SLPP candidate, but his chances of winning even half of the 69 lakh votes polled by his uncle Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019 appear remote. Other important candidates include P. Ariyanethiran, the Tamil MP from the north, Nuwan Bopage, the activist lawyer who led the Aragalaya protest movement in 2022, and former military chief Sarath Fonseka.

Dissanayake mobbed by fans in Colombo

“The 2019 election was fought on security issues and there were only two main contenders. But this election is being fought on the merits of each candidate, with an economic crisis still looming large. This one is establishment versus anti-establishment,” said columnist and research analyst Udita Devapriya. The last election was held in the wake of the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019. Gotabaya won a decisive victory back then, while Sajith finished second.

The frontrunners: A soft-spoken intellectual, Sajith Premadasa appears capable of balancing the complex power equations among various stakeholders.

Voters appear confused this time. In the rural areas outside Colombo, the masses look at Anura as a promising candidate, while the city elites stand by Ranil. Sajith finds support largely from the farmers, teachers, doctors and the Tamil minority. “Two of them (Sajith and Anura) have promised to abolish the executive presidency. But we want a leader who will also look into the welfare of the Tamils,” said M.A. Sumanthiran, leader of the Tamil National Alliance.

In the fray: An artist presents a portrait to Ranil Wickremesinghe during a campaign event.

The senior-most candidate in the presidential race is 75-year-old Ranil. But the erudite intellectual lacks charisma and the backing of a strong political party. Most members of Ranil’s UNP are now with Sajith, while he finds support from a section of the SLPP. Despite his lack of connect with the voters, Ranil hopes that his efforts in managing the economic crisis will help him.

Namal Rajapaksa with his father, former president Mahinda Rajapaksa.

While Ranil enjoyed fairly high popularity ratings till about a few months ago, Sajith and Anura overtook him once the election was announced. Son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, Sajith is a soft-spoken intellectual who appears capable of balancing the complex power equations among various stakeholders, including Tamils. His election manifesto focuses on five key points: building a resilient economy, empowering every citizen, enhancing government services, protecting the quality of life and safeguarding the nation.

Sajith could play a key role in ushering in an economic revival, especially as the country needs to work closely with the International Monetary Fund. “Sri Lanka has worked with the IMF before. When Premadasa got loans from the IMF, he utilised it to establish the garment sector. But, after him, successive governments failed to expand it,” said Chameera Dedduwage, a social activist. Sajith’s manifesto promises an economic recovery by working with the IMF. “The people of Sri Lanka will have to make a choice between a new visionary approach and the same old approach which protects the rich. Our people have a choice [other than opting for] extreme socialism and Marxism, which has not proved to be a viable model in modern day governance,” said Sajith.

With some of the best minds from the Ranil and Rajapaksa camps joining him, Sajith’s strength has grown multifold. His alliance now has key leaders like Patali Champika Ranawaka, Nalaka Godahewa, Charitha Herath and G.L. Peiris. However, Sajith could be handicapped by the fact that he has not really moved away from the UNP’s policies and ideas. His critics call him an economic populist and a better version of Mahinda―a rational, forward-looking populist, who is not a racist. And most of his party members are either from the SLPP or the UNP. Political observers say his lack of ideological clarity could hurt him.

If ideology is a concern for Sajith, Anura is banking on it to see him through. With his Marxist ideology, he has turned out to be one of the most popular candidates. He is campaigning on a platform of anti-corruption and clean governance in a country that still reels under severe debt. Backed by the youth and the protesters who were part of the 2022 Aragalaya movement, Anura presents himself as a change-maker. The 55-year-old former minister contested the 2019 presidential election, but finished a distant third with just 3 per cent of the votes.

“The people have endured these governments for a long time and are exhausted by the repeated failure of governance,” said Anura. “The breakdown of law and order has left them vulnerable to underworld crime. The collapse of the economy has further victimised the population, while critical sectors like education, health and transport have deteriorated. As a result, people are desperate to break free from their victimhood and helplessness. This desire for change is what draws them to us.” Support for Anura has hit a new peak just before the election, with university students, teachers and the working class supporting him. However the JVP’s dislike of the IMF and the west could play a role in determining his fate.

The last of the four main candidates is 38-year-old Namal, who seems to be facing a losing battle. The Rajapaksas know that they are nowhere near victory. Gotabaya, who fled the country during the economic crisis, has been campaigning for his nephew in closed-door meetings. Mahinda meets with Colombo elites and SLPP veterans and also addresses rallies, seeking support for his son. Namal is playing the Sinhala Theravada nationalist card, but it may not work this time.

“Winning or losing does not matter. Namal is a real fighter. He decided to contest only because of his fighting spirit,” said Mahinda. When asked whether the party wanted to field Namal, he said it was his son’s choice. Namal hopes that his father’s charisma and legacy will get him the Sinhala votes. Unlike the other main candidates, he has not promised the devolution of powers or the abolition of the executive presidency. He is sticking to the SLPP’s core ideology of Sinhala Buddhist majoritarianism. Namal targets young voters and has promised an economic revival and more jobs. “I chose to contest because my party wanted me to do so. It is the right decision, because we believe in the Sri Lankan model of development and that our ideology should be protected. We have a historic responsibility to make sure that we represent our voter base, community and people who believe in the Sri Lankan model,” said Namal.

In the 2019 elections, Namal’s uncle Gotabaya swept major parts of the country except the Tamil dominated north and east as terrorism and national security became key issues after the Easter bombings. But Gotabaya’s inept governance and his decision to flee the country during the economic crisis discredited the Rajapaksa brand and the SLPP. Most of the SLPP MPs are now with Ranil, while the intellectuals in the party have moved to Sajith’s SJB. Namal was reportedly asked to contest to keep the party alive. Earlier, the SLPP had plans to field billionaire businessman Dhammika Perera. But when it became clear that it would lead to a massive loss and that the remaining SLPP cadres, too, would leave the party, Namal decided to step in. “Only the MPs have gone with Ranil and Sajith. But the core Sinhala and Rajapaksa vote is with Namal,” said Lasanga Karunaratne, SLPP member from Matara.

It is, however, clear that the SLPP is facing an existential crisis after a series of political missteps and Ranil’s success on his own terms in the past two years using the SLPP support base. If Namal suffers a massive loss, it could spell doom for his future and could even bring down the curtain on the Rajapaksa brand of politics.

Opinion polls and voter surveys indicate that the election result will be determined by economic issues such as cost of living, inflation, unemployment and high taxes, while corruption among politicians and bureaucrats, problems in the education sector, flawed health services and a growing drug crisis are among other key concerns. The candidate who can convince the voters about having the most effective platform to tackle inflation and ensure economic recovery stands the best chance to win on September 21. As of now, Anura and Sajith have an edge even as Ranil hopes that his track record of stabilising and running the country during the economic crisis could land him another chance at the helm.