J&K: Abdullahs return to power after 16 years, but Omar will have to walk the tightrope

AS THE MORNING light filtered through the windows of National Conference president Farooq Abdullah’s residence on Srinagar’s Gupkar Road on October 8, his son Omar Abdullah was already awake, anxiously awaiting the results of the first assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir in a decade. Omar debated whether to go for a run, recalling how his last election day (the Lok Sabha polls) run had ended in a loss. “I thought if I ran and lost again, I would never run again,” he mused. “But I went for a run to break the jinx, and I still won, so I will keep running whenever I have to.”

By 2 pm, it was clear that the National Conference was heading for a sweeping victory in Kashmir, while the BJP maintained its stronghold in Jammu. Jubilant National Conference supporters took to the streets, waving red party flags with the iconic white plough and chanting slogans.

At the Abdullah residence, the gates swung open, and a flood of supporters and reporters entered. As Farooq and Omar stepped out of their home at the foot of the Shankaracharya mountain, they were met with a jubilant crowd. Farooq, visibly moved, thanked his supporters, declaring the victory “a new chapter for Jammu and Kashmir”.

While BJP supporters were equally jubilant after the party’s best-ever performance, their mood was tempered when it became clear that the overall mandate was against them. The BJP had fielded 19 candidates in Kashmir but drew a blank. By dusk, the National Conference had secured 42 seats in the 90-member assembly, with the Congress taking six and the CPI(M) one.

The National Conference’s success was most pronounced in the Kashmir Valley, where it won 35 of 47 seats. Omar, poised to become chief minister, won decisively in both the Ganderbal and Budgam constituencies. In Ganderbal, he defeated his closest rival, PDP’s Bashir Ahmad Mir, by over 10,000 votes, while his margin in Budgam was over 18,000. The Congress won five seats in Kashmir, and the CPI(M), with National Conference’s backing, secured a seat in Kulgam.

The BJP continued to dominate Jammu, securing 29 seats―its highest tally, up from 25 in 2014. It maintained its grip in Hindu-majority districts like Jammu, Udhampur and Samba.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the National Conference on its performance and said the high voter turnout was a sign of the people’s faith in the democratic process. Addressing party workers after the BJP’s victory in the Haryana polls, he said: “The BJP has emerged as the biggest party in Jammu and Kashmir in terms of vote percentage. The people of Jammu and Kashmir gave the mandate to the National Conference alliance, and I congratulate them, too. Some people used to say that if Article 370 is removed, Kashmir will burn. But Kashmir did not burn; it is blooming beautifully.”

Despite the BJP’s success in Jammu, it faced setbacks in seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, losing all six in the Jammu division. However, it secured all seven seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes and won five of six newly created constituencies in Jammu after delimitation. The sour note was BJP state president Ravinder Raina’s loss in Nowshera. The Congress, once a major player in Jammu, faced its worst-ever performance, winning only one seat in Rajouri.

Analysts see the results as a rejection of BJP’s post-Article 370 policies, especially in Kashmir, where discontent has grown since the abrogation. Observers believe the mandate reflects the people’s desire to reverse the changes introduced by the BJP, particularly the loss of statehood and concerns over land and job security.

The PDP’s grip on the Valley has weakened, with the party winning only three seats. Mehbooba Mufti acknowledged her party’s poor performance but hailed the mandate for the National Conference-Congress alliance. “I anticipated that the people would vote for the National Conference-Congress alliance. The mandate is loud and clear. There is no possibility of tampering with it now,” she said. Reflecting on the PDP’s decline, she noted that political fluctuations are natural, perhaps referring to the National Conference’s experience of winning 57 seats in 1996 to getting only 15 in 2014.

With Omar set to become the first chief minister of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP’s control of Jammu and its influence through Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha will pose challenges for the new government. Sinha retains most powers, including control over the police and the posting of government officials. Analysts compare the situation to that in Delhi, where the elected government often clashes with the lieutenant governor, suggesting similar tensions may arise in Jammu and Kashmir.

Omar is aware of the difficult road ahead, and has made conciliatory remarks towards the BJP. “I choose to believe the prime minister’s commitment to restoring statehood,” he said. “I don’t remember him saying that statehood would only be restored if the BJP is in power or that the people of J&K would be punished for not voting for the BJP.”

The road ahead will test the National Conference-Congress alliance’s ability to meet the people’s aspirations while maintaining a delicate balance in a divided region.