Haryana and J&K results come as a reality check for Congress

THE CONGRESS HAD been in a celebratory mood since October 5, when the exit polls unanimously predicted its victory in Haryana and gave it a chance at forming a coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir. Drum beats and the sound of crackers filled the air at the party headquarters in Delhi in the morning of October 8, the counting day, when early trends favoured the party.

The celebrations soon turned out to be an embarrassment, as the BJP took lead. By noon, the party office fell silent. Just three months after a spirited performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the party was yet again left to deal with the rather familiar situation of an electoral defeat.

The Congress was optimistic about doing well in the assembly polls. Victory in the state elections would have enhanced doubts about Brand Modi and the stability of the BJP-led Central government. It would also have strengthened the leadership credentials of Rahul Gandhi and increased the party’s heft in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

However, the defeat in Haryana and the underwhelming performance in Jammu and Kashmir have come as a sobering experience. The debacle in Haryana, particularly, is stinging. A victory against the BJP in the Hindi belt would have given the party a big morale booster amid its poor record in direct contests against the BJP, and also a second state to rule north of the Vindhyas. It would also have set the tone for the next round of elections, with Maharashtra and Jharkhand scheduled for polls in November. The party could have bargained harder for seats with its alliance partners from a position of strength. Noises are already being made by the partners in Maharashtra that the party needs to shed its big brother mentality and be more realistic in the seat-sharing discussions.

“It seems the Congress’s overconfidence and arrogance of local Congress leaders led to the party’s defeat,” said the editorial of Saamana, the mouthpiece of the Shiv Sena (UBT), a day after the results. The party is an ally of the Congress in the Maha Vikas Aghadi formation in Maharashtra along with the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (SP).

The Shiv Sena (UBT), headed by Uddhav Thackeray, is said to be unhappy with the Congress demanding a lion’s share of the seats in the upcoming assembly elections based on its performance in the Lok Sabha polls. The Congress had won 13 seats, the highest among the three allies. Also, the Congress has not been in favour of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s demand to go into the elections with a chief minister face.

Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole downplayed the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s criticism. “The circumstances and the political dynamics in Maharashtra are completely different from Haryana,” he said. “The people of Maharashtra are waiting to dethrone this government.”

The Congress’s negotiations with the Samajwadi Party for the upcoming by-elections to ten seats in Uttar Pradesh could also be impacted by its performance. It has been demanding five seats, but might have to settle for fewer.

Delhi goes to polls early next year, and the neighbouring Haryana has provided both the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress with a cautionary warning about taking the BJP challenge lightly. “Let us take a look at the election results in Haryana,” said AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal. “The biggest lesson one can draw from it is one should never be overconfident.” As of now, however, both the parties are maintaining that they will not get into an alliance for the Delhi assembly elections.

The Congress’s allies are bound to argue that the party fails to do well against the BJP when it is not in an alliance and it should be more accommodating towards its INDIA partners in the upcoming elections. Even in Jammu, the Congress failed to put up a strong fight against the BJP, managing just one seat against the BJP’s best ever haul of 29.

The Congress, though, takes heart in being a part of the government in Jammu and Kashmir. The victory of the National Conference-Congress alliance is also heartening for the INDIA bloc, as it dashed the BJP’s hopes of smaller parties and independents spoiling the NC’s chances in the valley. The BJP’s failure to be a part of the government in Jammu and Kashmir is significant since the abrogation of Article 370 has been the mainstay of its nationalistic messaging.

The results also come with some important takeaways on Rahul’s leadership. Just ahead of counting day, the Congress had put out publicity material about his first hundred days as the Leader of Opposition, which described him as the shadow prime minister who was taking up the issues of the people. Comparisons were also made between his and Modi’s campaign for the state polls. After the results came out, the party reminded that Rahul had a role to play in the shaping of the political environment of J&K through his Bharat Jodo Yatra.

“The Bharat Jodo Yatra was a transformational movement as far as the politics of Jammu and Kashmir is concerned,” said Jairam Ramesh, AICC general secretary in charge of communications. “The National Conference has scored a handsome victory and we congratulate them. They are our ally. But to say the Indian National Congress has not had a role in the transformation of the political environment in J&K in the last two years is wrong.”

Rahul’s silence on counting day had placed the Congress in an awkward situation. A day later, he posted a message on X, thanking the people of J&K for voting for the INDIA alliance. He also said the party would analyse the “unexpected results” in Haryana and take up with the Election Commission complaints coming in from the different Vidhan Sabha constituencies on the counting process.

What the results also mean for the Congress is that it would have to go back to the drawing board on the issues it has been raising. The focus on caste census may not be yielding the desired results. Rahul has been spearheading the demand for a caste census. The BJP’s success in Haryana is being attributed to a caste coalition comprising the other backward castes and a section of dalits. Also, while the scheduled castes had voted for the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections, with the perceived threat to reservations being a major issue then, the BJP seems to have succeeded in courting the non-dominant dalit castes this time.