How BJP is working to consolidate its future after Lok Sabha debacle

IN MARCH, HARYANA Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini sought a vote of confidence in the assembly after the Bharatiya Janata Party picked him to replace two-term chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar. Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda ridiculed the new chief minister, saying he was just a night watchman for his party. In the months that followed, Saini made policy announcements to tide over anti-incumbency. Meanwhile, Union Home Minister Amit Shah rolled out a strategy to counter the Congress’ focus on jawan, kisan and pehalwan.

Now known as the 35-1 strategy, the BJP leaders looked for ways to consolidate votes from 35 of the 36 prominent communities in the state, since the Congress focused on the Jats who constitute 25 per cent of the population. They actively wooed the remaining 75 per cent. Saini promised permanent jobs to Agniveers and enhanced quota for OBCs. And, when the votes were counted, it became evident that OBCs, Punjabis, dalits and even a section of the Jats had backed the BJP. Also, the fear of the return of farmers’ agitation and a Jat government led to consolidation in favour of the saffron party.

The showing in Haryana was honed in previous elections; in Madhya Pradesh, where the party faced similar anti-incumbency sentiments, and even in Chhattisgarh, where the Congress was poised for victory. If Kamal Nath was vocal about his aspirations to be the chief minister in Madhya Pradesh, Hooda left no doubts about his. This caused a schism within the party and even led to complacency. Moreover, as the Congress celebrated winning five of 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP crunched the numbers and found that it was ahead in 44 assembly segments and looked at how to use that information in the assembly polls.

It was the BJP’s back-to-basics campaign strategy, in which the RSS volunteers also participated, that led to its remarkable performance in Haryana and its best in Jammu and Kashmir, where it got the highest vote share―around 26 per cent.

The message from these polls is layered. Coming within months of the humbling Lok Sabha poll experience, the Haryana win has lifted the BJP’s morale and reinforced brand Modi. The results have stopped the slide not just in numbers but also in regard to the public perception of the BJP’s longevity.

The Haryana result is a reminder to the BJP’s allies, too, that the party’s skill in getting electoral results has not diminished. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had held four rallies in the state from where he started his political career as secretary-in-charge for Haryana, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh in the mid-1990s.

The real import of the two results goes beyond arithmetic. The common factor is that both the electorates gave a clear mandate to the winning side.

“The message from these polls is far reaching,” said BJP spokesperson Tuhin Sinha. “The results are a rejection of the Congress’s caste and divisive politics along with the freebie politics it has unleashed in states [ruled by it]. Its narrative, jawan, kisan, pehalwan, that Agniveers, farmers and wrestlers were angry with the BJP, has been rejected. They have reposed faith in the BJP government and validated the Agniveer scheme.”

The elections in J&K will restore confidence in public institutions and also help the Modi government score in the perception battle as elections were successful in the conflict zone. The Muslim world, particularly Pakistan, gets the message that people have reposed faith in electoral governance. The sub-text of the Kashmir result is that the moderate National Conference has won over the Peoples Democratic Party and Engineer Rashid’s new outfit. The problem is that the verdict is communally divided. The BJP swept Hindu-dominated Jammu with 29 seats (28 Hindus and one Sikh) and could not win a seat in Kashmir. The NC-Congress alliance, meanwhile, only has two Hindus among its 48 MPs. The government will have to do a delicate balancing act to maintain harmony in the sensitive Union terrirory.

Going forward, the BJP will use the momentum from Haryana to aim big during the upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi. In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti government is busy with foundation stone laying and inaugurations before the polls are announced. A party leader said that the Haryana result would give the BJP more bargaining power within the alliance.

Said Sinha: “We will have an edge now. In Jharkhand, the people are fed up with the Hemant Soren government. In Maharashtra, it will have a positive bearing. Unlike the Congress which is hung up on 99 [Lok Sabha] seats, the BJP cadre works on the ground and delivers.”

INDIA’s reliance on the caste census promise did not work for it in Bihar during the Lok Sabha polls, nor did it in Haryana. The BJP had promised to give Rs2,100 to women and set up three new industrial cities to generate jobs―these promises have clearly found takers in Haryana.

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been reaching out to farmers to contain their anger by holding weekly meetings and announcing better minimum support prices, an issue which finds resonance in Maharashtra. Chouhan, who is the BJP’s election in-charge for Jharkhand, also made an unusual announcement that the party would bring the National Register of Citizens to counter demographic change caused by illegal Bangladeshi settlers in the tribal state. This showed that the BJP would not shy away from a polarising issue to oust the government of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Congress.

Moreover, the impact of the Haryana results may be felt in how the BJP pushes its ideological agenda. The victory in Haryana and the consolidation of Hindu votes in Jammu may prompt the party to speed up work on One nation, One Poll and Waqf Bill. A good show in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will wipe out what remains of the 2024 Lok Sabha poll humiliation.

The Haryana result also held a strong message for the BJP itself. The return of RSS cadre in campaigning and booth management after a lukewarm response during the Lok Sabha polls has been welcomed within the organisation. The first signal had come with the return of RSS leader Ram Madhav as election in-charge in J&K.

This would translate to better coordination between the BJP and its ideological parent and would influence the selection of a new party chief and even a successor to Modi in the coming years.

Saini’s return as Haryana chief minister marks another change in the Indian political landscape where the BJP is taking the lead. When the 54-year-old Saini, who had a clean image and credentials of organisational work, was picked to replace 70-year-old Khattar, it gave a hint that the party was rewarding diligent workers. Now, Saini, who was up against 77-year-old Hooda, joins a growing list of BJP chief ministers who are below the age of 60. Of the BJP’s 13 chief ministers, nine are below 60. The median age of BJP chief ministers is 56, which means it is grooming second-rung leaders across the country and pushing a generational change.

In comparison, the Congress’s chief ministerial candidates like Nath, Ashok Gehlot and Siddaramiah, and even the chief ministers who are BJP allies―N. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar―are all in their 70s. The BJP’s vision maybe reflected when it picks its next party president, who is also likely to be in the 50s.