Why Maharashtra assembly elections 2024 is going to be unlike any other

Soon after the Pune Police seized Rs5 crore in cash from an SUV owned by a person from Sangola tehsil in Solapur district recently, TV news channels began reporting allegations by Maha Vikas Aghadi leaders that it was meant for MLA Shahajirao Patil of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. Patil, who went viral for his “Kay zadi, kay dongaar (what beautiful trees and hills)” remark while flying to Guwahati during Shinde’s revolt, denied the allegation.

Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) legislator Rohit Pawar alleged that there were five such vehicles, each carrying Rs5 crore. The veracity of the claims and counterclaims could not be verified, but the seizure offered a sneak peek into what lies ahead as Maharashtra goes to polls on November 20. If the police decide to remain this alert, there could be many more such seizures involving both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition MVA.

At the time of filing this report, both alliances were in the final stages of seat-sharing talks. The BJP was nearing 150 seats and the Congress just over a 100. The allocation for their allies was unclear.

Maharashtra is going to witness a unique election this time. The traditional alliances―Congress-NCP on one side and Shiv Sena-BJP on the other―having been changed, the results would not just decide who rules the state but also which faction of the Shiv Sena and the NCP has been accepted by the people. So, it will test the mettle of Chief Minister Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar against Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and his daughter Supriya Sule.

According to reports, there are signs of large-scale rebellion within the main parties. In Mumbai, for instance, Swapnil Yerunkar, a BJP general secretary, quit the party to join the Shiv Sena (UBT) and he could contest against MLA Mangesh Kudalkar of Shinde’s Sena. In Navi Mumbai, Sandeep Naik, son of senior BJP leader and former minister Ganesh Naik, quit the BJP to join the NCP(SP) and will contest against BJP legislator Manda Mhatre. Interestingly, both Naiks and Mhatre were once part of the united NCP. Rajan Teli, long-time aide of MP Narayan Rane, quit the BJP to join the Shiv Sena (UBT) to contest against School Education Minister Deepak Kesarkar of Shinde’s Sena. Similarly, as reported earlier by THE WEEK, senior leader Harshvardhan Patil quit the BJP and joined the NCP(SP) to retain his hold on Indapur constituency. He will contest against NCP (Ajit Pawar) legislator Dattatray Bharane. Similar developments are taking place across the state.

The BJP is reportedly ‘donating’ candidates to allies. Spokesperson Shaina N.C. joined Shinde’s Sena and is contesting from Mumbadevi. Former Union minister Raosaheb Danve’s daughter Sanjana joined Shinde’s Sena and secured the ticket from Kannad. Similarly, Rane’s son Nilesh joined Shinde and is contesting from Kudal.

Moreover, two BJP leaders who lost in the Lok Sabha polls, Pratap Patil Chikhalikar and Sanjay Patil were given tickets by Ajit Pawar’s NCP from Loha in Nanded and Tasgaon in Sangli, respectively. Sangli district BJP president Nishikant Patil joined Ajit Pawar’s NCP to contest against NCP(SP)’s Jayant Patil in Islampur. Former BJP minister Rajkumar Badole also secured a ticket from Ajit Pawar’s NCP.

When Ajit Pawar filed his nomination on October 28, he became emotional on the issue of contesting against his nephew Yugendra, the NCP(SP) candidate in Baramati. He said that his uncle had made the same mistake that he had made when he fielded his wife, Sunetra, against Supriya.

Meanwhile, in Kolhapur, Congress changed its candidate Rajesh Latkar and gave the ticket to Madhurima Raje, wife of former MLA Malojiraje Chhatrapati. Malojiraje is the son of Kolhapur royal family head and Congress MP Shahu Maharaj.

The Shinde government is focusing on its claims of stellar work in record time for the benefit of all sections of society. The chief minister likes the word game-changer, as he calls all infrastructure projects completed by his government game-changers for both Mumbai and Maharashtra. The scheme under which eligible women aged between 21 and 65 get Rs1,500 per month is also a game-changer. The ruling alliance hopes that these initiative are sufficient to get re-elected. Similarly, it has delivered on its word of providing free electricity for 44 lakh farmers. But, has the government addressed real issues, like farming becoming an untenable profession?

Samar Khadas, political editor of Maharashtra Times, says that Indian society never comes together on class issues. Charan Singh tried, but he, too, had to give it a caste coating. “The main issue behind the ongoing Maratha agitation is agriculture,” said Khadas. “Because Marathwada is a drought-hit region, there is not much industry, so jobs are a big issue there because Marathas are in open category. They don’t get jobs and farming has become untenable. Sharad Joshi’s agitation on agricultural issues did not have a political fallout.”

He points out the landholding pattern in Maharashtra. “It is not just Marathas like it was earlier,” he said. “Some prominent OBC castes like Leva Patil, Mali, Dhangar and Vanjari also have big land holding and they, too, are facing the same problems. During an agitation for Maratha reservation, these castes get worried and consolidate on the other side. But, the issue at the root is agriculture becoming unaffordable and farm produce not fetching good prices.”

Khadas also said that soybean is being bought at Rs4,200 per quintal and unseasonal rains have destroyed the crop. This has happened to other crops, too. “Also, schemes like Ladki Bahin have jacked up the cost of farm labour (the aid leads to labour shortage),” he said. “It is better when a farm labourer gets a better price but the farmer should be able to afford it, but that is not happening as farmers’ income is not rising. The Ladki Bahin scheme is good. Many countries follow this model, but will the government be able to sustain it?”

Senior BJP leader and legislator Atul Bhatkhalkar, who will be seeking a third term from Kandivali East, said that the assembly polls will not have the fake narrative that the BJP was going to change the Constitution, which was present during the general elections. “In addition, Ladki Bahin, free electricity to farmers and infrastructure projects are being appreciated by people,” he said. “Hence the saffron alliance is certainly in an advantageous position.”

However, a source in the BJP said that the election was going to be a close contest. “We do not think there was sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray in the Lok Sabha polls,” said the source. “However, it was there for Sharad Pawar. But, in any case, followers of Sharad Pawar’s ideology were never going to vote for us. Our core voters did not like our alliance with Ajit Pawar. So we lost. This time around, we are confident of our performance, but anxious about the performance of Shinde’s Sena and NCP-Ajit Pawar. So the outcome could well be a hung assembly.”

According to Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, this election is only about development. “Two-and-a-half years of no governance and no development under the MVA versus two-and-a-half years of speedy development and good governance under us,” he said. “The work by our government has reached all sections of society―be it the poor farmer or the aspiring urban citizen.”

Independent legislator Satyajeet Tambe Patil told THE WEEK that this election could bring a course correction for Maharashtra politics. “After the 2019 polls, it was seen that none of the parties stayed true to the mandate given by people,” he said. “First, the Shiv Sena broke its alliance with the BJP and then the BJP split parties to come back to power. This is not Maharashtra political culture. So, 2024 is an opportunity for the people to ensure a course correction.”

A legislator, who requested anonymity, said that this game had begun in 2014 when Sharad Pawar wanted to alienate the Shiv Sena from the BJP. “He unilaterally offered support to the BJP after polls, thus taking away the Shiv Sena’s bargaining power,” he said. “Then, in 2019, he ensured that it snaps its ties with the BJP. This forced the BJP to break the Shiv Sena and the NCP as revenge. So, the battle is between an elderly Chanakya (Pawar) and the reigning Chanakya, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There will be more developments across the state in the days to come which will decide who has the last laugh.”

He could not have been more correct. The game that will decide the match has just begun.