How Trump succeeded in converting Americans’ feelings of grievance into votes

Washington, DC

The fundamental reason why Donald Trump won the presidency in 2024 was his ability to convert many average Americans’ feelings of grievance into votes for him. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, a very large number of Americans feared they were not as wealthy, safe, respected or healthy as they should be. They had a feeling that these deficits were not their fault but were the results of something wrongfully done to them or taken from them. The genius of Trump was to validate and exaggerate these fears and convert them into votes for himself. In each case, Trump was able to take an element of truth and convert it into a larger “untruth” that was believed by millions. Further, he was able to take his own tales of grievance and conflate them with his supporters’ sense of grievance, thereby cementing their loyalty and enthusiasm for him.

For most Trump voters, the most important issue was the economy. Trump claimed that Biden and the Democrats had “destroyed” the American economy despite the fact that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve had engineered a proverbial “soft landing” coming out of an economically disastrous pandemic which Trump had failed to manage. Job growth had been unparalleled, unemployment was at historically low levels, the stock markets had surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and GDP growth was robust.
However, the political Achilles heel of this vibrant economy was inflation. The average voter had little first-hand knowledge of the positive aspects that made the American economy. They cared even less for these positive economic indicators when he or she had to pay more for groceries, gasoline and housing. Trump was able to convert this inflation factor and Democrats’ attempts to downplay its significance into validation that the Biden administration, including Kamala Harris, had destroyed the American economy and taken wealth from the average voter.

Immigration was a second leading issue for Trump voters. Many Americans did not feel as safe as they believed they should be. Lurid accounts of car-jackings, murders, robberies and even mass shoplifting left many Americans uneasy, even though overall crime levels were down. Trump had a ready answer for this fear. Safety had been taken from the average American by those largely black and brown immigrants who were entering the United States from across the southern border. Other countries were sending their murderers, rapists and insane, pet-eating criminals into America. In Trump’s words, America had become the “garbage can for the world”.

According to Trump, Biden and Harris had deprived average Americans of safety on purpose to allow non-citizen immigrants to vote for Democrats. Even though there were statistics showing immigrant crime to be at lower rates than for other American groups and non-citizens were not voting in elections, this did not matter. Nor did it matter that Trump had personally torpedoed bipartisan legislative efforts to fix the immigration problem. The average Trump voter—80 per cent of whom were white—could see many more brown and black immigrants in their community, and their feelings of grievance over safety were validated by Trump.

Many voters swinging to Trump were motivated by what they saw as a lack of respect for their beliefs and for them personally.  Harris and the Democrats made it plain they opposed core beliefs held by many Americans on anti-abortion or “right to life”, anti-homosexuality, anti-transgender and pro-Christian nationalism. Trump was able to motivate many who held these beliefs to get off the couch, register and vote for him by portraying Democrats as elites who were purposefully trying to take away the respect and power that rightfully belonged to these swing voters.

Coming out of the pandemic, there were also voters concerned about declines in health for them or family and friends close to them. Observable increases in such neuropsychological disorders as autism blended with lingering resentment over masking, vaccinations, social distancing shutdowns and quarantines. Many Trump supporters were led to believe that Trump had been right about Covid and that measures to combat the pandemic had been intentional impositions foisted on average Americans. Trump’s embrace of figures as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and his anti-vaccination, anti-fluoride positions confirmed to some that perceived health deficits were not naturally occurring phenomena but were a result of actions by Democrats. Trump even extended this feeling about personal health to concern for those affected by natural disasters. According to Trump, they had been left by the federal government to endure the harm inflicted upon them. The need to combat climate change to avoid disasters affecting health was pictured as just another ploy of ruling elites.

But how did Trump turn many voters’ fears about the economy, immigration, respect and health into action in his favour?

His operational tactics remained the same as they had been since fighting charges of his companies’ racial discrimination in the earliest days of his career. The Trump bedrock tactic remained—attack, attack, attack. Describe your opponents as enemies in vulgar and offensive terms. Never show weakness or doubt. His remarkable response to assassination attempts was impressive in this regard.
A second tactical tenet was to use exaggerations and outright lies to create a view of reality in his favour. The Washington Post fact checker documented more than 30,000 false or misleading claims Trump made during his presidency, and this continued into his four-year long campaign to regain the White House. His statements that he had won the 2020 election and the crowds storming the Capitol on January 6 were simply patriotic Americans trying to “stop the steal”, was symbolic of this strategy. These falsehoods played into Trump’s overall grievance validation and exaggeration strategy, and falsehoods concerning the economy, immigration, core beliefs and even health were particularly prominent.

One must not underrate the entertainment skills that Trump brought to the campaign as a part of the “how” he was able to win. Trump rallies were never dull and even, at times, humorous. Using skills that he had honed over 15 seasons as the star of the reality television series TheApprentice, Trump knew how to use all the skills of the entertainer to captivate an audience. Of course, “reality TV” is not actually reality at all. Rather, it is an expertly crafted fantasy using articulate, emotional characters and outlines rather than written scripts to create narratives that seem real. Trump knows how to create impressions that are entertaining and appear real in the eye of the beholder already inclined to his narrative for the occasion.

Now that Trump has shown his appeal for a majority of American voters, a question is whether his appeal based upon grievance affirmation, attacks, untruths, personal self-confidence and entertainment value will endure. Trump’s first term is a good guide to answering this question.

Although there were bumps in the road and discontinuities during the first three years of his presidency, Trump remained appealing for a large portion of the American electorate until they were faced with a crisis that affected them directly but was not susceptible to the strategy and tactics that had won Trump his first election. In the case of the first term, this crisis was the pandemic. In his second term, such a crisis may be created by a Trump administration overreach through following the precepts of the “Project 2025” outline. Mass deportation of illegal immigrants or pro-inflation measures such as universal high tariffs may create such a crisis. Such a crisis might also be created by outside factors. War, pandemics, and climate disaster are all breeding grounds for crises that may not be susceptible to Trump’s skills.

Whether Trump gains and retains unprecedented power within the American governmental system is largely in the hands of the Republican party. Republicans will have control of both executive and legislative branches and unprecedented influence over the judiciary. Trump’s control over the party, thus far, has been based on his political success with voters. Very few Republican leaders have the courage to stand up to Trump. Those who did stand up to Trump he quickly subdued or dispatched politically. However, if Trump meets with a crisis that causes a political disaster in the 2026 midterms, the Republican leaders will likely drop him. In the absence of a crisis he cannot meet, his appeal will be enduring and fundamentally change American government and politics for the foreseeable future. Truth and compassion will not be the currency of political discourse and the progress the country has made in such fields as racial and sexual equality, the rule of law and environmental protection will likely be set back.

The author is senior advisor at the Albright Stonebridge Group. He was US assistant secretary of commerce for trade development.