'Win women to win polls': Understanding themes behind latest round of elections

After the commanding performance in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra and Haryana earlier this year, one cannot blame the INDIA bloc for believing that it had a very good chance of winning the assembly polls in those states. With their distinct demographies and political landscapes, however, Maharashtra and Haryana defied predictions and gave the ruling BJP an unprecedented mandate. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP not only staged a remarkable comeback, but also dispelled doubts about its political reach.

The intense 2024 election season concluded on a high note for the BJP, delivering a humbling lesson to the INDIA bloc. Going by a cricket analogy, the opposition began as favourites, but ended as “chokers”.

The Maharashtra assembly elections served as a masterclass in political strategy, demonstrating that no battle is unwinnable with meticulous planning and efficient execution. While the BJP reworked its strategy and idiom, the opposition was not as agile in reading the voters’mind. There is, however, a silver lining for them, as the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance managed to clinch victory in Jharkhand, despite the BJP’s aggressive campaigning.

This round of assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and a host of bypolls in several states have given a largely similar mandate: the ruling parties have done well, beating anti-incumbency. Consider West Bengal, which was in turmoil following the rape and murder of a doctor, denting Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s image. The ruling Trinamool Congress swept the bypolls, winning all six seats. Down south in Karnataka, the ruling Congress won all three seats that went to the polls, despite Chief Minister Siddaramaiah facing the heat over corruption charges. Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Bharath Bommai, sons of two former chief ministers fielded by the National Democratic Alliance, lost the polls. Voters also favoured parties which had no ambiguity on the leadership issue.

From the results, the primacy of women voters in swinging the elections has once again become clear. The biggest takeaway―win women to win polls.

In Jharkhand, despite the BJP’s high-octane campaign highlighting corruption charges against incumbent Hemant Soren, and the polarising issue of Bangladeshi migrants, voters reposed faith in Soren’s leadership, giving the JMM the biggest-ever mandate and a historic second term in a row.

In Maharashtra, the shift towards the BJP is significant. It has joined states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana by electing a BJP government third time in a row, which shows the party’s deepening ideological reach.  The BJP won over 100 seats in the last three elections, the only party to do so in the state. If the results of the Lok Sabha polls were to be extrapolated in terms of assembly seats, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi should have won 158 seats. But in less than six months after the general elections, the MVA dropped to 50 seats. One big advantage the BJP enjoyed this time was the full support of the RSS cadre in mobilising voters and spreading its message.

The BJP relied on a mix of polarising campaign and welfarist message. The ideological slogan, ek hain toh safe hain (united we remain safe)―a refined version of the polarising batenge toh katenge (will get slaughtered if we stay divided)―is likely to be the party’s war cry in the near future. What also helped the ruling alliance is that the Mahayuti had strong leaders in Eknath Shinde and Devendra Fadnavis, while the MVA leadership looked uninspiring.

The results have also shown that Rahul Gandhi’s appeal to the marginalised groups failed to work as expected. “The Congress tried to monopolise the social justice and constitutional rights planks. Dalits, OBCs and tribals continue to side with the BJP, as the party has delivered on its promises,”said BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash.

Saffron high: BJP workers in Nagpur celebrate the party’s victory | PTI

A year ago, the Congress had tried hard to play up the social justice card during the assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, with a promise of conducting caste census, but the movement failed to gain traction. Now the BJP’s conclusive victory in Maharashtra could force the Congress to search for a new idiom and narrative to get voters’ attention. The younger lot are moved by the promise of immediate economic gain and prosperity. The ideological battles are won when there are committed leaders, but not everyone in the Congress are in sync with Rahul’s social justice plank. “Rahul has been steadfast in raising the social justice plank. He was vindicated when the US courts indicted Adani. He is not against corporates, but is opposed to crony capitalism. He will be vindicated again, on the issue of social justice,” said Congress spokesperson Shama Mohamed.

The Congress’s victory in Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh was based largely on its promise of a cash component in social welfare schemes. The freebies powered the party to victory in these states. The BJP learnt the lesson the hard way. Shunning its aversion to freebies, the BJP promised enhanced cash-based doles to women, such as the Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh.

During the Haryana polls, the BJP’s promise of giving Rs2,100 per month to women, which was hundred rupees more than what the Congress promised, scripted a turnaround for the party. “The Haryana polls gave us a big boost. It showed what works on the ground. Women voters are the key. Since then, we managed to cover a lot of ground in Maharashtra,” said a senior BJP leader. Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin Yojana was launched after the Lok Sabha polls, offering women Rs1,500. Shinde promised to make it 02,100 after the results were announced.

Soren’s Maiya Yojana, offering women Rs2,500, helped his party cement its hold over Jharkhand. This has been the recent change in the India’s political landscape where women voters are turning more decisive, growing out of the shadow of the male family members.

The BJP, meanwhile, scores over the Congress even when both parties offer similar freebies. For instance, the Congress government in Himachal Pradesh, which offered several freebies for voters, is facing a dire financial situation, and is finding it difficult even to pay salaries on time. Such crises do impact the voters’ choice.

“That is the difference with the BJP’s promises. We first make provisions in the budget and then make the cash transfer,” said the BJP leader. “And looking ahead, women voters will be central to all political campaigns, be it in Delhi or in Bihar.”

The focus will now shift to another round of assembly polls next year. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry into the Lok Sabha from Wayanad may bolster the Congress’s public outreach. Her entry into Parliament is keenly watched by all parties. But the BJP will approach Delhi and Bihar elections with confidence this time. The saffron party has not been able to win the assembly elections in Delhi, despite sweeping the Lok Sabha polls in the last three elections. Here, too, the voters are clear about one thing. The Aam Aadmi Party is able to present an undisputed leader, while the BJP has not been able to do so.

In Bihar, the INDIA bloc has an advantage when it comes to leadership as Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal is its clear choice. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is a past master in holding on to power against the odds, but voter fatigue against him seems to be growing. Bihar would also be a stern test for election strategist Prashant Kishor. His Jan Suraaj Party flopped miserably in the bypolls.

Clearly, the year draws to a close with yet another political message: politics is the art of the possible. After the Lok Sabha polls, Fadnavis had offered to resign as the BJP performed miserably in Maharashtra. In less than six months, he has made a triumphant return, with the BJP winning 132 seats in the 288-member assembly.