ON THE LAST DAY OF 2022, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi managed to ignite the political situation in Madhya Pradesh with a prediction that his party will sweep the assembly polls in the state due later this year. “The BJP will not be seen anywhere there.... There is a total undercurrent in Madhya Pradesh, a [Congress] storm out there,” Rahul said at a news conference in Delhi.
Rahul’s assertion came just a few days ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Madhya Pradesh, his third in the past five months. The BJP government in Bhopal led by Shivraj Singh Chouhan is banking heavily on Modi’s visit. The prime minister will inaugurate the Pravasi Bharatiya Sammelan (PBS) in the state’s commercial capital, Indore, and will later kickstart the annual Global Investors Summit (GIS), virtually. The twin mega events from January 8 to 12, which will focus on the sociocultural and economic incentives and political gains, is expected to herald the campaign call of the BJP. And the focus will be on Modi, the party’s electoral trump card. In a recent meeting of its senior state leaders, the BJP gave the slogan, ab ki baar 200 paar, (going beyond 200 seats this time).
Chouhan has been at his aggressive best during the past few months, participating almost every day in events related to implementation of welfare schemes, extension of services, awareness programmes in tribal areas and honour day (Gaurav Diwas) celebrations. He has changed his style of functioning, and is getting stricter with erring officials, sometimes even issuing suspension or transfer orders on public platforms. Rahul’s prediction of a Congress sweep and a claim by state Congress chief and former chief minister Kamal Nath that his party will win an overwhelming majority in the assembly polls seem to have irked the BJP.
The Congress, still basking in the warm response to the Bharat Jodo Yatra that passed through the state a month ago, observed the new year day as ‘Sankalp Diwas’ (resolution day). The party has announced that it will fight the assembly polls under Kamal Nath’s leadership. Supporters put up hoardings hailing him as the next chief minister, something unheard of in the Congress. A similar campaign is also under way on the party’s social media platforms.
The ‘Sankalp Diwas’ event saw rallies and public meetings in which Congress leaders criticised the “anti-people” policies of the state and Central governments. They reiterated that as soon as a Congress government was formed in Bhopal, the promises made ahead of the 2018 elections, which were left unfulfilled because the Kamal Nath government was toppled by the BJP, would be fulfilled.
In his new year message, Kamal Nath said the Congress would uphold its promises like the farm loan waiver, jobs for the youth, implementation of the old pension scheme and 100 units of electricity for 1100. He has also been holding public meetings in different districts and is working to bring together people who are angry with the Chouhan government. He is expected to visit all districts at least once during the coming months to hold one-to-one meetings with party workers and to engage with voters. He will also address an OBC convention of the Congress in Satna on January 5.
Political observers feel that at the moment, there are no major issues that the Congress and the BJP could highlight and, therefore, they are focusing on strengthening their arsenals and observing each other’s moves and planning strategies accordingly. “The BJP and its government will certainly expect events like GIS and PBS, which will see the participation of a good number of prominent non-resident Indians, foreign dignitaries and business stalwarts and another visit by Modi to give them the perfect start to the election year. As for the Congress, Rahul’s expression of confidence is a shot in the arm for the cadre and state leaders. The party has started the new year on an aggressive footing,” said political commentator Manish Dixit.
Standing tall: Cutouts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Bhopal.
Despite the bravado, both parties know that what matters the most is concrete planning on the ground. Internal surveys conducted by the Congress and the BJP have shown that several incumbents are not so popular and could be denied tickets. According to sources, Chouhan and Kamal Nath have warned those who have turned out to be weak performers in the surveys to improve quickly or be prepared to drop out. The Congress is, however, likely to accommodate more sitting MLAs and will drop only 15 to 20 of its worst performers. Kamal Nath has denied reports about internal surveys and said Congress members were working towards forming a majority government.
The BJP could deny tickets to 30 to 40 per cent of the incumbents, including at least a dozen ministers, to beat anti-incumbency. A final cabinet reshuffle is also on the cards. “The survey and warnings are expected exercises, but for the BJP, another major undercurrent is the impact of the Gujarat election results. They are [keenly watching whether] the BJP higher-ups decide to make changes to the government or to the organisation going into the polls,” said Dixit.
While Chouhan is in his fourth term with a total tenure of almost 17 years, state BJP chief Vishnu Dutt Sharma’s three-year term comes to an end in February. Party insiders told THE WEEK that the chances of replacing Chouhan are just 50:50 as he does not carry any negative baggage despite his long tenure. As for Sharma, there is a feeling that although he has strong RSS backing, his performance as president has been lacklustre and he has not been able to gel well with party functionaries and cadre. Political analyst Girija Shanker said the Gujarat model was not replicable in Madhya Pradesh. “Also, major changes in the Gujarat government came 14 months before elections and in the case of Madhya Pradesh, that time is well past,” he said.
As for the Congress, the most interesting development this time is that the party has named Kamal Nath as its chief minister face. Although the former chief minister will be 77 by the end of the year, the party knows that only he has the required political and financial wherewithal to take on the BJP.
There is some speculation that a younger leader could be brought in as state party chief. Former state president Suresh Pachouri, however, said Kamal Nath would continue to lead the party as well. Congress media cell chairman K.K. Mishra said while some organisational changes were expected, Kamal Nath would continue as state president.
As expected, both the BJP and the Congress are banking on their strong network of party workers. “We are approaching the 2023 polls on the basis of our immense organisational strength. Through this network, which works till the polling booth level, we are carrying the message of the welfare schemes of the Central and the state governments to the voters,” said Sharma. “Another strength for us is the huge faith that people have in Prime Minister Modi. To achieve the goal of crossing the 200-seat mark, we have fixed a target of 10-11 per cent increase in vote-share at each polling booth. This will ensure as big a win as in Gujarat,” he said.
Pachouri said the Congress was focusing on strengthening the organisational structure from polling booths up to state level. “Also, we will reiterate the promises that we made before the 2018 polls, especially the ones that remained unfulfilled because our government was pulled down. We managed to fulfill 365 promises in 365 days of our government and we are committed to fulfilling all of them,” said Pachouri.
Rahul’s prediction of a Congress sweep has made it clear that the party is hoping to gain from the Bharat Jodo Yatra. Officially, however, the party sticks to the stand that the yatra is apolitical. “The entire country and its democracy will benefit from the yatra. This is the best outcome,” said Mishra.
While the BJP and the Congress deny any serious infighting in their state units, political watchers feel that internal bickering might be one of the biggest challenges for both parties. Shanker referred to the recent no-confidence motion in the assembly moved by leader of opposition Govind Singh, which made news because Kamal Nath chose to stay away. A recent tweet by MLA Lakshman Singh, brother of former chief minister Digvijaya Singh, questioning the Congress leadership for the poor performance of over 40 per cent of its MLAs as indicated in the internal survey shows that all is not well in the party. During the presidential polls in July, some Congress MLAs went against the party whip and voted for Droupadi Murmu. Yet, the Congress managed to keep its flock together while the Bharat Jodo Yatra passed through the state.
As for the BJP, Shanker pointed towards the formal complaint sent by former minister Deepak Joshi to the prime minister, alleging massive corruption in the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana in his home district, Dewas. Former chief minister Uma Bharti’s moves will also be watched closely. She recently hinted that her community might not necessarily vote for the BJP and warned that the saffron party did not own the right of devotion to Ram and Hanuman.
There is also speculation that some of the ticket aspirants in the BJP could revolt if they are sidelined to accommodate Congress turncoats who came with Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia in 2020. The “anti-party” stand taken by former minister Jayant Malaiya that led to the defeat of BJP candidate Rahul Lodhi from Damoh during in the 2021 bypolls is cited as a warning. “The Congress and the BJP need to resolve their internal strife before they move ahead with poll preparations,” said Shanker. “That will be the biggest challenge for both parties.”