On April 11, 2019, as the Lok Sabha elections commenced, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first tweet of the day, urged first-time voters to vote in large numbers. In 2019, there were 8.4 crore first-time voters―a decisive and, largely, enthusiastic constituency. To put this number into context, the BJP got 22.9 crore votes, while the Congress got 11.9 crore. So, the party getting the bulk of first-time votes will be well-poised to rule India.
Modi has this constituency in mind for the 2024 elections, too. Those turning 18 in January 2024 will be eligible to vote, and he has been arduously wooing them with events like Pariksha Pe Charcha. This is also the age group that would be the most aspirational. India is set to become the most populous country and the number of first-time voters in 2024 is likely to surpass the 2019 figure.
But, there is a catch. These first-time voters may not remember the UPA government or its policy paralysis against which the BJP often rails. Therefore, the BJP will engage with the 18-25 age group throughout the year to remind them of those days.
It is a learning from the party’s experience in Bihar in 2020. BJP ally Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) had already ruled the state for 15 years by then and not many remembered the ‘jungle raj’ of Rashtriya Janata Dal president Lalu Prasad. His son Tejashwi Yadav was careful not to invoke his father’s name too much. As a result, the RJD emerged as the single largest party, though the BJP and JD(U) went on to form the government.
“Only 400 days remain for the next elections, we need to work hard,” said Modi, during the BJP’s two-day national executive meeting in Delhi. “The youth between 18 and 25 years have not witnessed the mis-governance of the UPA, and how this government transformed the country.”
Sanjay Ahlawat
The BJP would do more than just remind the aspirational class about the negatives of the UPA government. The positive messaging will come in the Union budget on February 1. Unlike in the previous budget exercises, no feedback was taken from the party. Instead, sources revealed, Modi asked the BJP to fan out across the country and hard-sell the budget. This points to the possible nature of the budget, especially following an increase of 22.6 per cent in the government’s revenue.
A party leader said there would be “heavier spends on infrastructure to fuel growth, which, in turn, will create jobs and pass on the benefit to the social sector. In the election year, it will be a pro-people budget, as the government focuses on self reliance in manufacturing and building infrastructure, and to cushion people against any likely recession.”
In light of India’s presidency of the G20, there may be provisions for environment, climate change and farmers. The challenge before the government would be to increase social sector spending without being seen as doling out revdi (freebies).
As prime minister, Modi has benefited immensely from the strength of the party organisation. The well-oiled party machine has taken forward the governance message. This is an asset the earlier BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee did not have. Party president J.P. Nadda has been given an extension of tenure till June 2024, by which time a new government would have been sworn in. Nadda has worked assiduously to build on the organisation his predecessor, Home Minister Amit Shah, had left for him. For instance, Modi had set a target of strengthening the party in 70,000 election booths across the country; Nadda covered 1.32 lakh booths.
The Central government and the organisation have coalesced into one. The initiatives of the government are taken forward by the party. Now, the challenge before Nadda is to take forward Modi’s latest message: engagement with social groups like pasmanda (socially backward and dalit) Muslims, Bohra Muslims (concentrated in Gujarat), Christians and Sikhs.
Pasmanda Muslims constitute over 80 per cent of the Muslim population in India. Thanks to government schemes targeting them, they are another constituency―labarthi or beneficiary―nurtured by the BJP. The strategy had reaped dividends as the BJP won assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Rampur, Uttar Pradesh, breaking the hold of Samajwadi Party leader Azam Khan.
Modi had spoken about holding sneh milans with pasmanda Muslims during the last BJP national executive in Hyderabad in July 2022. And the party has already held such meetings with this group, which often feels left out. Representatives of the group were also given government posts, including in the cabinet in Uttar Pradesh, where pasmanda Muslims constitute 85 per cent of the Muslim population.
Modi’s “statesmanly” message for the BJP to engage with minority communities has a dual purpose. It counters Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the criticism from foreign countries regarding the treatment of minorities in India.
“The BJP is no longer a political movement, but a social movement working to transform socioeconomic conditions,” Modi said. “We should aim to build relationships with all sections of society with sensitivity. We have reached all sections, but remove any gaps. We should not focus only on votes, but also build society. We have to change the nation and society.” This statement places the BJP in the same position the Congress was post independence. What was left unsaid was that the natural corollary of such efforts would be votes.
Votes incoming: A protest against Arvind Kejriwal at a BJP office in Delhi. The party is actively wooing the youth | Getty Images
There is no doubt that the BJP will go all out to act on the prime minister’s words. Party spokesperson Shazia Ilmi said the message of ‘Ek Bharat, Shreshtha Bharat’ was the biggest takeaway from the national executive meeting. The vision will be implemented through the party’s elected representatives, grassroots-level programmes and regular events in the border areas. Political parties often neglect the border areas, but the BJP understands that they are fertile grounds for nationalism. The RSS, too, has been conducting programmes along the border areas. Last year, it even engaged with Muslim leaders to bring about harmony.
Another of the BJP’s big missions is the south. Though it is in power in Karnataka, the BJP’s reach has generally been limited in the southern states owing its image of being a predominantly north Indian party. The saffron party is looking at the south to make up for any shortfall of seats in rest of the country.
The party will go on yatras in the southern states. The focus, according to a senior party leader, will be on Telangana and Tamil Nadu. Telangana BJP president Bandi Sanjay Kumar has made inroads. “The party will send representatives from various units to join his yatra to learn how he is building the party there,” said the senior leader. But, before Telangana, the BJP needs to retain Karnataka, where it is going solo despite overtures by the Janata Dal (Secular). General secretary C.T. Ravi expressed confidence that the party would win the elections under the leadership of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai.
To overcome language and cultural barriers, the BJP will focus on cross-cultural programmes and exchanges on the lines of the Kashi-Tamil Sangamam held in Varanasi, the prime minister’s constituency, in November 2022. Even if the number of participants is not high, the social engagement can help the BJP make inroads.
When the BJP goes to the polls, it will have twin messaging. This was clear from the symbols at the meeting venue. As cultural symbols, the BJP displayed images of the Kartarpur Corridor in Gurdaspur, the Mahakal Corridor in Ujjain, the Kashi-Vishwanath Corridor in Varanasi, and statues of Subhas Chandra Bose and Vallabhbhai Patel. New India was represented by BrahMos missiles, ISRO satellites, Rafale jets, TAPAS drones and INS Vikrant.
Three state party presidents came in for praise at the meeting: Bandi Sanjay Kumar, West Bengal’s Sukanta Majumdar and Gujarat’s C.R. Paatil. Paatil spelt out the BJP’s successful strategy in Gujarat. He talked about how the work done by the party and the government for tribals and scheduled castes, to provide water and other amenities, helped the party scale new heights. Perhaps, a bigger reward awaits Paatil.
Ilmi said there was complete clarity in Modi’s vision and that he talked about better cohesion in opposition-ruled states, too.
Elections in nine states are scheduled in 2023; most of them will be keenly fought. They may show how ready the opposition is to take on Modi next year. He will be fighting to become the first prime minister to win three consecutive terms since India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.