When Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh asked his secretary, N. Geoffrey, to draft his resignation letter late last month, panic engulfed the state secretariat. As soon as the news reached the BJP office in Imphal, the party asked civil society organisations to assemble outside the chief minister’s residence and dissuade him from going to the Raj Bhavan.
Thousands of people―most of them Meiteis―hit the streets quickly. Ironically, many of them had earlier asked the chief minister to resign as they felt the government failed to protect the interests of the Meiteis. They accused the Union government and its agencies of being soft towards the Kukis who they said had attacked them and destroyed their houses. But they came out in Biren Singh’s support after the local BJP leadership told them that if the chief minister resigned, the next option would be president’s rule. “It would mean an all out Army show. And the Meitei women would be in trouble as their protests would be dealt with harshly,” said a BJP functionary.
As the news reached Delhi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah intervened and asked the chief minister to continue. Meanwhile, a group of protesters snatched the resignation letter from Biren Singh and tore it. This correspondent asked the chief minister about the letter. “It was mine and it was genuine,” he said.
When violence broke out in early May, Biren Singh had put up a brave face. But things have become difficult for him as the Meiteis are clearly unhappy as they think the Army has not been harsh enough with the Kukis.
Delhi has been largely silent, although it appointed former director general of the CRPF, Kuldiep Singh, as security adviser to the state. Shah tapped Kuldiep, an IPS officer of the 1986 batch, to lead the uniformed forces. But the ministry of defence appears to be on a different page. “When the Army is present in an operation, it cannot work under the instructions of a retired IPS officer,” said a senior Army officer.
Subsequently, the fight between the Meiteis and other groups has intensified. At a recent all-party meeting in Delhi convened by Shah, there was a demand to appoint another Meitei leader in Biren Singh’s place, said L. Jayantakumar Singh, president of the Manipur unit of the National People’s Party. “Nobody wants to replace Biren Singh with a Kuki leader. There is violence all through the region and the Meiteis have many grievances against the chief minister. So another Meitei leader would be fine,” said Jayantakumar, who had earlier served in the Biren Singh cabinet.
Biren Singh, however, said the resentment among the Meiteis was against the Central forces who were not using lethal force against the Kukis. But the Meiteis are in no mood to listen. Jayantakumar said even the chief minister’s orders were ignored by the armed forces, leading most Meiteis to turn against him. “His own people are raising slogans against him. They also raised slogans against the prime minister and the home minister. It has left Biren Singh with no other option, but to resign.”
While Biren Singh is facing a major political crisis in Manipur, in Delhi, the external affairs ministry and the national security adviser are worried about the growing instability in neighbouring Myanmar. “The situation in Myanmar has changed completely in the past few years,” said an Army officer. “China enjoys a total grip over the Myanmar government as the country is economically unstable. The junta government even condemned the joint statement by Prime Minister Modi and President Biden about banks in Myanmar procuring arms from China.” The rising Chinese influence in Myanmar will affect the security situation in Manipur because of the long border and the ethnic similarities.
Yet another concern for India is the well-developed road network it has constructed linking Manipur and Myanmar as part of the Asian highway. “It has been developed as an answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative,” said a senior officer of the Eastern Command. But several key locations along the highway are inhabited by Kukis. “As Kukis block all entry points to Manipur, the state would be cut off from the rest of India,” said the officer. Such a situation arose in the 1980s in Mizoram during the Laldenga movement, when prime minister Indira Gandhi had to resort to airstrikes, forcing the militants to lay down arms and come to the negotiating table.
Senior BJP leader Loken Singh pointed towards the impact of mass migration from Myanmar after the junta takeover, accentuated by the impact of the Kuki customary laws. “Under their laws, the land occupied by the Kukis belong to village heads, who decide on everything from sanctioning Aadhaar cards and voter IDs and other government documents. As a result, the intruders have all the documents and it was ratified by the earlier Congress governments. Biren Singh took the oath a second time to change this situation,” said Loken Singh.
As the situation continues to remain tense, Shah has summoned senior leaders from the northeast to Delhi. He has also taken note of the fact that Kukis and other affected tribes have started moving to Mizoram and Meghalaya where they are finding support from the government and the local people, especially because of their ethnic connections. Protests are now being reported from these two states as well. It could force Modi and Shah to contemplate a new leadership in Manipur.
A senior general secretary of the BJP said the regime change could not be ruled out. “The parliamentary board would decide. The leaders would have to think of the pros and cons of the decision,” he said. Sensing trouble, Biren Singh, who was largely confined to his office and residence ever since the riots broke out, has decided to tour the state, seeking a fresh start and also support from his people.