THE RESULTS OF the parliamentary polls came as a surprise to many people as former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats, despite the party losing its iconic election symbol ‘cricket bat’ and its candidates contesting as ‘independents’. While the PTI-backed independents won 92 of 265 seats to which direct elections were held, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) won 79 and 54 seats, respectively. Imran has ruled out any alliance with the major parties and has directed his supporters to join hands with the Majlis-e-Wahdat-Muslimeen (MWM) to try and form governments at the centre and in Punjab. He has also indicated an alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The PTI said that its mandate was stolen after the PML-N and the PPP announced a plan to form a coalition government under former prime minister Shehbaz Sharif. PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto announced on February 13 that his party would support the PML-N candidate for prime minister, but would not join the cabinet. The PPP, however, is eyeing several constitutional positions like the president, the speaker of the National Assembly and the chairman of the senate (upper house).
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, said the results showed that Imran and the PTI were more popular among the masses than their competitors. “This is despite the fact that Imran is in prison and has been convicted in a few cases,” he said. “Several top PTI leaders are either imprisoned or under ground. Even if the PTI is unable to come to power at the national level, Imran holds the key to the current political crisis in the country.”
Although the PML-N and the PPP performed marginally better this time compared with the 2018 elections, they won fewer seats than the PTI-supported candidates. “Each one of the three parties―the PTI, the PML-N and the PPP―may be able to form provincial governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh provinces, respectively. But none of them is in a position to form the federal government without joining hands with one of the two remaining parties. That is what is causing political stalemate,” said Mehboob.
PML-N leader Ahsan Iqbal, who won the National Assembly seat from Narowal in Punjab, defended his party’s performance. “Punjab was stolen from us in 2018 and now we have regained it. Despite the political cost we had to pay by taking unpopular decisions to save Pakistan from bankruptcy, we regained Punjab. And we would form a coalition government in Islamabad. The PTI is virtually reduced to one province now,” he said. When asked about the PTI’s allegation that its mandate was stolen, Iqbal said the PTI was good in perception management. “But it remains a one-province party like it was in 2013.”
Meanwhile, the PPP’s decision to stay out of the government could turn out to be a problem. PPP leader Nadeem Afzal Chan said he did not consider the elections free and fair. “We faced a tough time in Punjab, Karachi and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PTI also had a difficult time.” He said the PPP had the option of going with either the PTI or the PML-N to form a government. “The PTI is not ready to talk to any party. So we just had one choice left to save the system and parliament: to go with the PML-N.” Chan said the PPP voters would not have wanted the party to support the PML-N, but it had to be done to save democracy. He criticised Imran’s decision to not engage in dialogue with other parties. “They are giving space to non-democratic forces by doing this. If Imran doesn’t take parliament seriously, then it shrinks the space for politicians. The onus will be on Imran if this system is derailed. PTI members want reconciliation, but it seems Imran does not,” said Chan.
Senior journalist Azaz Syed, however, said that the PTI would be a part of the parliament. “Sometimes it will lead protests. It will lobby as well. When prices of essential goods and petroleum products increase, it will oppose strongly. This way, the PTI will build a narrative for the next elections,” said Syed. “It will also be waiting for the honeymoon period between the establishment and the PML-N to end and then use it to its own advantage.”
Senior anchor Shahzad Iqbal, quoting PTI insiders, said that Imran was ready to sit in the opposition. The party believes that after its surprising performance, the establishment and the judiciary may take a step back. Imran feels that there is also the possibility that the new coalition might not last long, giving the PTI yet another chance at an election. “Had the PTI formed a coalition government, it would have been easier to get relief in the cases against Imran and other party members. However, the party feels differently. The PTI thinks that it can fight it out in the opposition and still stay relevant,” said Shahzad.
Imran also knows that with the PPP choosing to stay out of the cabinet, the alliance with the PML-N is fraught with uncertainty. Journalist Fahd Husain said the arrangement would mean that the PML-N would have to shoulder the burden of difficult decision-making, while the PPP remains sheltered from the fallout of such decisions. “It would make the PML-N completely dependent on the PPP without the latter taking any responsibility.”
Another advantage for Imran is the fact that the PTI has been able to retain its dominance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. According to journalist Arifa Noor, in case of a nationwide crackdown, the party would have a refuge in the province. The PTI will also be able to assert itself more politically, as several decisions will be made at the provincial level under the conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund. “With a strong opposition in parliament and a weak government with little legitimacy, it will be very difficult for anyone to ignore PTI’s role,” said Noor. “The difficult economic decisions that have to be made will create problems for the PML-N government.”