Why BJP and allies have the edge in perception war in northeast

“Every morning, we have to get up early and go near the river bank to relieve ourselves. Women go in one direction, men in another. During floods, it is hard to find a spot,” said Sajinara Bibi, 30, a mother of two. Pregnancy makes matters even worse as alternative methods will have to be explored.

Sajinara is from Simina village in Assam’s Kamrup district, about 30km from Guwahati. She suffers from stomach ache and frequent bowel movements. Her husband, Moinul Haque, 33, earns around Rs 400 as a daily-wage labourer, whenever he gets work. Sajinara receives Rs 1,250 in her bank account every month under the Orunodoi scheme, the Assam government’s cash payout scheme for women. The couple got an LPG connection by spending Rs 5,500 from their savings, but they are unable to get refills regularly. They feed their cooking fires with dried weeds to reduce LPG consumption. “The price of an LPG refill is almost equal to three days of our wages. If we spend the entire amount on buying gas cylinders, we will have to skip meals for three days,” said Sajinara.

Unlike Sajinara, women in most households have received free LPG connections under the Ujjwala scheme of the Central government, but dumps of dried river weeds outside their houses tell the other half of their stories. During the last monsoon, this reporter saw villagers, mostly women and children, collecting driftwood from the flooded Brahmaputra, risking their lives.

Sajinara and her husband belong to the “indigenous Assamese Muslim” community. In 2022, the BJP-led coalition government headed by Himanta Biswa Sarma granted “indigenous” status to five Assamese Muslim sub groups to distinguish them from migrant Muslim settlers of east Bengal origin. A majority of migrant Muslims of east Bengal origin enter “Assamese” as their mother tongue in Census forms and receive education in Assamese medium even as they speak Bangla dialects at home or among themselves. Assam is yet to reach a consensus on the definition of “Assamese” or “indigenous” for the purpose of implementing clause VI of the Assam Accord that promises constitutional safeguards for Assamese people.

Sajinara said she had voted for the BJP in the last assembly polls held in 2021. “We received the benefits of Orunodoi, so we reciprocated,” she said. On the Lok Sabha elections, she said her decision would depend on whether the benefits of other schemes such as the Prime Minister Awas Yojana and the Assam government health insurance programme were extended to her family.

Sarma, meanwhile, plays up the Orunodoi scheme in all his rallies and poll speeches. The scheme was rolled out on October 2, 2020, during the previous BJP-led government headed by Sarbananda Sonowal, covering 19 lakh women. In October 2023, Sarma announced the addition of 7.3 lakh new beneficiaries and fixed the tenth day of every month for crediting the amount to beneficiary accounts. Sarma also waived microfinance loans of 2.23 lakh women borrowers at a cost of Rs 291 crore. Earlier, the government had spent Rs 1,600 crore to waive such loans of nearly nine lakh women.

The BJP hopes that the welfare schemes will help it woo women voters in rural Assam. The Sarma government has launched the Mukhyamantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyaan to provide financial assistance to 39 lakh rural entrepreneurs who are members of women self-help groups. The scheme offers Rs 10,000 for eligible women. The Sarma government, in fact, fixed the schedule for distributing the scheme's forms when Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra was passing through Assam.

The Congress said that though Sarma did it to sabotage the yatra, many women left the queues for forms to interact with Rahul as the party offered some hope for problems such as rising prices and unemployment.

The Sarma government denied Rahul permission to enter Guwahati and to hold rallies in some venues chosen by the Congress. The state criminal investigation department registered cases against Rahul and Congress leader Jairam Ramesh and summoned state Congress president Bhupen Borah and other leaders for interrogation in connection with an FIR lodged against them for breaking police barricades in Guwahati and for not sticking to routes cleared by the police. The Sarma government, however, allowed BJP president J.P. Nadda to hold a roadshow in Guwahati. Some voters saw this as an indication of the BJP feeling worried about the impact of Rahul’s yatra.

Assam accounts for the largest share of Lok Sabha seats—14 of 25 Lok Sabha seats—in eight northeastern states. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP and its allies in National Democratic Alliance and the North East Democratic Alliance won 19 seats and the Congress won only four—three in Assam and one in Meghalaya. The Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and an independent candidate won one seat each. The BJP hopes that the exclusion of the AIUDF from the INDIA bloc will lead to a split in the votes of migrant Muslims, helping the BJP and its allies, the Asom Gana Parishad and the United People's Party Liberal.

Driving along the 120km stretch of the four-lane national highway from Guwahati to Nagaon, I stopped at the spot of the infamous “Nellie massacre” of 1983, which happened during the peak of the anti-foreigners’ agitation in Assam, to assess the mood among the Muslim voters of the east Bengal origin. Residents of Nellie and nearby villages were in praise of the BJP-led government in the state for protecting their paddy fields from annual floods by constructing a sluice gate near the confluence of two rivers—Kopili and Kolong. “For the first time since my childhood, our paddy field was protected from flood water,” said Nur Jamal, a 38-year-old villager.

Jamal said the BJP's statements about Muslims and migrants from east Bengal did not matter much to Nellie residents. They see it as part of the political strategy to mobilise votes. Jamal was born in 1985, and his father had told him about the massacre and also about a Hindu family that had forewarned his father to flee to safety.

“We have buried the bitter past and are living in harmony with all communities. For us, getting a good harvest and remunerative prices for our crop is the priority,” he said. Several other residents echoed his views. Safik Ahmed, 40, said Nellie farmers also got better price of Rs 2,000 a quintal for their rice crop, compared with the previous year’s price of Rs 1,000. They attributed the increase to the rise in paddy procurement by the state government and the Food Corporation of India.

Nellie falls under Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency, which had its boundaries redrawn during the delimitation exercise last year. Senior BJP leader and former Union minister Rajen Gohain resigned as chairman of the Assam Food and Civil Supplies Corporation protesting delimitation. Gohain, who was elected on a BJP ticket four times from the constituency, alleged that the party would not be able to win the seat again.

Sarma and the BJP, however, claimed that the delimitation of assembly and parliamentary constituencies would help the BJP politically. They think the delimitation would give indigenous communities a deciding role in at least 105 of 126 assembly seats. The BJP is playing the card of safeguarding Assamese and other indigenous communities, besides banking on beneficiary schemes.

By harping on demographic changes caused by migrant Muslims, the BJP is also trying to convince indigenous communities to accept the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which would offer citizenship to Hindu Bangladeshis who had entered India till 2014. Opposition parties in the INDIA bloc and the AIUDF are opposed to the CAA and insist on the implementation of the Assam Accord and the identification and expulsion of “illegal migrants” based on an updated National Register of Citizens in Assam with 1971 as the base year, irrespective of their religions.

The Congress and other opposition parties said the delimitation was carried out by the Election Commission to suit the BJP's interests. Muslims of east Bengal origin are likely to be a deciding factor in only 21 assembly constituencies as against about 28-29 constituencies prior to the exercise.

While the BJP appear to have an edge in Assam, Manipur could prove to be tough challenge following the violent ethnic conflict between Meiteis of the valley districts and Kukis living in the hills. There are no visible signs of the guns falling silent. This correspondent found security forces manning a cluster of posts over a stretch of the 'No Man’s Zone' along NH 2 between Churachandpur, a hill district with a Kuki majority, and Bishnupur, a valley district with a Meitei majority. As we approached Churachandpur, our vehicle was stopped at multiple check points, and we had to produce photo identity cards. We were allowed to move to the next security check post only after a thorough checking of our vehicle and after receiving clearance from senior officers over walkie-talkie. Security officials also ensured that my driver was from the Meitei Muslim community.

Meitei and Kuki women did similar checking at village volunteer check posts outside the periphery of official security check points. Men take charge in the afternoons and stay through the nights. Our journey from Imphal to Churachandpur was on February 18, three days after a violent mob protesting the suspension of a police head constable belonging to the Kuki community torched offices of the deputy commissioner and superintendent of police of Churachandpur district.

On February 13, a mob looted an armoury of the India Reserve Battalion in the Meitei-majority Imphal East district. Over 5,000 weapons and lakhs of rounds of ammunitions were looted from across the state since violence began on May 3, 2023. The clashes started over an order passed by the Manipur High Court on March 27 about including Meiteis in the list of Scheduled Tribes.

With those arms falling into civilian hands, heavy firing from both sides continues to pierce the otherwise still nights. Armed Kuki groups have revived the manufacture of the traditional pumpi (a homemade mortar-like weapon) to fire powerful locally-made bombs. Unabated gun battle has dashed the hopes of thousands of displaced families from both communities of returning to their homes.

“My son borrowed Rs 100 and we will have to return it after getting our assistance of Rs 800 (Rs 80 a day for ten days) for purchasing vegetables. I spent the whole night thinking how to spend it. I need to buy milk and baby food for my grandson,” said M. Hani, a Meitei from Moreh village. She and her family fled to Myanmar on July 30 when a Kuki group torched Meitei houses in their village. Hani’s heavily pregnant daughter-in-law, too, had to flee with them. She delivered her baby at a hospital in Myanmar. The family returned to a relief camp at Lamboikhongnangkhong in Imphal West district in January this year. Hani and other inmates of the camp said restoration of peace was their priority, not elections. They said the ration and cash assistance they received were too meagre to manage expenses for health, education and food.

Haopu Haokip, 24, a master's student in geography, who serves as in-charge of a relief camp in Churachandpur, shared Hani's view that peace came before polls. The camp shelters 288 displaced Kukis who had to flee after armed Meiteis attacked their village. The stench of faecal sludge coming from near the cooking shed spoke volumes about the living conditions in the camp.

Inmates of the relief camps said most of them had lost their voter identity cards and were not sure whether they would be able to cast their votes even if temporary polling booths were arranged in the camps. Hani said during the 2019 elections, many of the Meiteis were unable to cast their votes. When they reached their polling booths they were told that their votes had already been cast. “If polling is arranged in our relief camp and we decide to take part, it will be for the first time that we will be able to cast out votes freely,” she said.

As spring turns into summer, yongchak (tree bean), a favourite delicacy both in the hills and the valley, is the centre of attraction in Imphal's vegetable markets. Earlier, yongchak was available in abundance everywhere, including in the valley. It is no longer the case, because of pests and disease, and Meiteis are dependent on supplies brought by Naga and Kuki women vendors from the hills. Following the outbreak of violence, Kuki women are not being able to bring vegetables to Imphal. Abem Chithung, a woman vendor from the Naga-majority Ukhrul district, said sales had come down drastically. When asked about the elections, Abem was categorical: “We want peace first. Only after peace is restored can we talk about elections.”

Inside Imphal’s famous Ima Keithel (mother’s market), many vendors voiced strong opinions against holding elections in Manipur without restoring normalcy. “I earned Rs 500 today, but I had to deposit the money to our common fund. Besides, we also have to pay for donations to support relief camps,” said Ng. Memthoi, a 74-year-old pottery seller.

Some inmates at the Lamboikhongnangkhong camp expressed strong resentment over Prime Minister Narendra Modi not visiting Manipur to help restore peace. Adding to the Congress's hopes, they appreciated Rahul for visiting the state twice and said they wanted him to visit more. “Rahul should come again,” said Laiphakpam Mani, an 80-year-old inmate. “Modi is our prime minister, but he did not come to Manipur.”

In Mizoram and Nagaland, which elect one member each to the Lok Sabha, the Modi government's decision to scrap the Free Movement Regime (FMR) between India and Myanmar and to fence the international border is turning out to be a major poll issue. The travel regime, mutually agreed upon by India and Myanmar, allows movement of people up to 16km inside each other’s territory without any travel documents through three designated points—Moreh in Manipur, Pangsau in Arunachal Pradesh and Zokhawthar in Mizoram. There was pressure to scrap the FMR by the Manipur government which said it was abused by insurgent outfits and drug trafficking gangs to infiltrate and indulge in attacks on security forces and civilians. Naga and Kuki organisations in Manipur, however, have strongly opposed the move. They have found support from civil society organisations and rebel groups in Mizoram and Nagaland, including the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah). In Nagaland, the poll boycott call by the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation over its statehood demand has clouded elections in 20 assembly segments of the total 60 assembly segments of the lone Lok Sabha seat with uncertainty.

In Tripura, the ruling BJP has secured support of the leading opposition party Tipra Motha led by the current head of the royal family of Tripura, Pradyut Bikram Manikya Deb Barma. This follows a tripartite agreement by the Motha with the Central and state governments on March 2 to “amicably resolve all issues of indigenous people of Tripura relating to history, land and political rights, economic development, identity, culture and language.” In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won both seats from the state, which came after its landslide victory in the 2018 assembly elections. The BJP retained power in the 2023 assembly polls, but the rise of the Tipra Motha and the pre-poll alliance between the Congress and the CPI(M) brought its tally down to 31 seats in the 60-member assembly. The BJP-Motha alliance is locked in direct contest with the alliance between the Congress and the CPI(M)-led left front which have shared one seat each.

While Rahul’s yatra evoked a spontaneous outpouring of support for the Congress in Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, the situation looks difficult for the grand old party in Meghalaya. The en masse desertion of party legislators, including former chief minister Mukul Sangma, to the Trinamool Congress and the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) before the 2023 assembly polls has left the Congress significantly weaker.

Meghalaya is poised for multi-cornered contest in Shillong and a triangular contest in Tura. The ruling National People’s Party has fielded candidates for both seats. The BJP, meanwhile, has announced that it will support the NPP candidates. It is also a reaffirmation of the fact that the BJP will leave no stone unturned to keep as many regional parties of the northeast as possible within its fold for the number game at the Centre, despite waging a fierce battle against them in local electoral arena. In the Shillong Lok Sabha seat, besides Congress, the Voice of the People Party and the NPP, two regional coalition partners in the NPP government—the United Democratic Party and the Hill State People’s Democratic Party—too, have put up a candidate. The Congress is contesting both the seats with the sitting MP from Shillong and state president of the party Vincent H. Pala seeking re-election. In Tura, the Congress is locked in a contest with the NPP and the Trinamool Congress.

The BJP and its regional allies have an edge in the perception war among voters in the northeast, but the decision by the Modi government to implement the CAA has given opposition parties an opportunity to push it as a major poll plank. Opposition parties and organisations in Assam have vowed to strongly oppose any move to implement it in the state.