In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured hat-trick victories in Udhampur and Jammu constituencies, leading in 29 of 37 assembly segments. But, despite the success, the party’s inability to contest in constituencies in Kashmir and the emerging challenges in the Hindu-majority Jammu could complicate its efforts to win the assembly polls due later this year.
The BJP recorded a notable decline in its vote share in Udhampur and Jammu. The party also lost Ladakh, which was separated from Jammu and Kashmir and declared a Union territory after the voiding of Article 370 on August 5, 2019. The BJP’s allies in Kashmir, the Apni Party and the People’s Conference (PC), also struggled, securing just 4 per cent and 3.3 per cent of votes, respectively. Combined, the three parties received 16.4 lakh votes, or 31.7 per cent of the total votes. On the other hand, the National Conference and the Congress-led alliance that opposed the BJP got 21.45 lakh votes (41.6 per cent).
The NC’s performance, especially, underscores the BJP’s challenges. The NC won the Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituencies, even though it lost Baramulla, where party vice president and former chief minister Omar Abdullah was defeated by Abdul Rashid Sheikh of the Awami Ittehad Party. (Known as Engineer Rashid, Sheikh had contested from jail; he was arrested by the National Investigation Agency in 2019 on money laundering charges.) The NC led in 34 assembly segments across the three constituencies.
The BJP’s reduced vote share narrowed its lead over the Congress from 6.36 lakh votes in 2019 to 2.59 lakh votes in 2024. It highlighted the BJP’s challenges in Jammu, which has been its stronghold. Though the BJP led in 15 of 18 assembly segments, it recorded narrow margins in East Jammu, Nagrota, Ramgarh and Bahu, all of which it had won in the 2014 assembly polls, and lagged in Gulabgarh, Suchetgarh and R.S. Pura.
In the Udhampur Lok Sabha constituency, the BJP led in 14 of 18 assembly segments. In Inderwal, Bhaderwah and Banihal, areas with significant Muslim population, the party trailed the Congress. For the BJP to come to power in the Union territory, say observers, the party needs to win seats in Jammu with a sizeable Muslim population.
Kashmir continues to be a challenge for the BJP. The decision to let the Apni Party contest the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency had left the BJP’s local leaders and supporters distraught. The constituency was created by the Delimitation Commission in 2022 after merging the south Kashmir districts of Anantnag, Shopian and Kulgam with the Muslim-majority districts of Rajouri and Poonch in Jammu. The Pir Panjal range separates south Kashmir from Rajouri and Poonch, inhabited mostly by tribal communities such as Gujjars, Bakerwals and Paharis. Regional parties had questioned the decision to form a new Lok Sabha constituency that includes districts separated by a mountain range and connected only by a treacherous 127km road, better known as the Mughal Road, which remains shut in winter. The parties had alleged that the constituency was formed at the BJP’s behest.
Sources say local BJP leaders, in a meeting in Srinagar on June 1, had attributed the party’s losses in these seats to the decision to not field its own candidates. A BJP leader in Poonch said most Paharis, who were granted scheduled tribe status by the BJP, would have voted for the BJP candidate if the party had decided to contest elections from Anantnag-Rajouri. “The Paharis were reluctant to vote for the [Apni Party] candidate,” he said.
A BJP functionary in Jammu said the BJP would have done well in Anantnag-Rajouri if state party president Ravinder Raina was given the ticket. “Some people in the party felt threatened by him,” he said. “They felt if he (Raina) was elected from the constituency, he would emerge stronger and [become] closer to the central leadership.”
A BJP leader in south Kashmir also said Raina would have been a good choice. “The BJP has helped many people in Kashmir, including some religious leaders in distress,” he said. “They, too, had committed to supporting the BJP candidate. We would have pulled it off with the support of religious leaders in south Kashmir, Kashmiri Pandits and Paharis. Raina sahab is the only leader who has a good rapport with all the people in Jammu and Kashmir.”
BJP sources told THE WEEK that the party had initially decided to back a serving IAS officer who belonged to an ST community. “It was believed that he would be acceptable to Gujjars, Bakerwals and Paharis,” said a source. “However, the plan didn’t materialise as the BJP was not keen on allotting him the party symbol.”
Sofi Yousuf, vice president of the BJP’s J&K unit, exuded confidence that the party would do well in the assembly polls. “We expect to win five to ten seats in Kashmir,” he said. “We didn’t put up candidates in the Lok Sabha polls in Kashmir, but we know the places where our supporters cast their votes in favour of allies.”
According to Yousuf, the BJP had more than seven lakh members in Kashmir. He said the party would field candidates in all seats in the assembly polls. Said Muhammad Rafiq, BJP leader in charge of Kashmir: “In the assembly elections, our supporters will ensure victory for the BJP in several constituencies like Anantnag, Anantnag West, Sonawari, Habba Kadal, Karnah, and Uri. We are confident of winning all these constituencies.”