UTTAR PRADESH CHIEF MINISTER Yogi Adityanath’s fortunes are swaying even more than the state’s erratic monsoon. On July 22, the Supreme Court stayed his government’s order that mandated shop-owners to display names outside shops on the Kanwar Yatra route.
This was strike three, and it hurt where it should―the unapologetically staunch hindutva stance of Yogi. Strike two had happened on July 17, when Yogi had to assure residents of Lucknow’s Pantnagar and Indraprastha colonies that their homes would not be razed, and that civic authorities had erred in putting red marks on their houses, which meant that they stood on a flood plain. Barely a month earlier, multi-storey houses on a 24.5 acre plot were razed despite sustained protests. The structures had stood for decades on a flood plain. Strike one had happened on July 16, when an order that made digital attendance of school teachers mandatory was withdrawn after statewide protests.
Yogi no longer seems immovable now. Snapping at his heels is Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, who met BJP president J.P. Nadda twice in 24 hours earlier this month. Maurya, a popular leader belonging to the Other Backward Classes, considers himself a natural leader in a state that has a significant OBC population.
It helped his case that alliance partner Apna Dal(K)’s Anupriya Patel (another OBC leader) wrote to Yogi asking why was it that posts in the reserved categories were not going to candidates and they were instead being rejected for being “unsuitable”. On July 22, Maurya flagged the issue, albeit regarding outsourced jobs. In a letter to the appointments and personnel division, he said he had sought an answer in the assembly as well, but had got no response.
Is the state BJP on the brink of a churn? Academic Prashant Trivedi said Adityanath still enjoyed the protection of the RSS, which now appears more focused on cutting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to size. But if that tussle gets too rough, Adityanath might find himself in a corner. “For the RSS, political power does not matter. It is the organisation that matters,” said a senior pracharak from Ayodhya.
The Sangh’s vocal disapproval of the behaviour of BJP leaders has the party worried about the erosion of all the support it had built in the past few decades. Worse, the party could find itself split.
The RSS worry is more rooted―why did the party not do well despite the Kashi Vishwanath corridor in Varanasi and the building of the new Ram Temple in Ayodhya. And, what has emboldened leaders to openly voice complaints to Yogi? Union Minister Anupriya Patel, for instance, wrote two letters on issues that could have been dealt with more quietly.
BJP leaders themselves had flagged the issue regarding digital attendance of teachers. “To be successful in 2027, our government will have to withdraw this [order regarding] digital attendance,” wrote party MLA Devendra Pratap Singh. “If the government accepts our suggestions, then the BJP will form the government in 2027.”
The attendance issue bought the government to its knees. Rajendra Prasad Mishra, vice president of the Madhyamik Shikshak Sangh, a teachers’ body with around 52,000 members, said. “Teachers are natural allies of the BJP. Despite all our problems, we have stood with the party. Had the decision not been withdrawn, it would have been seen as open humiliation.”
This is the same body, among others, that had lauded the state government for compensating the families of teachers who had lost their lives while on election duty in the local body polls during the pandemic. The government also compensated those who died much later because of Covid-related symptoms.
Yogi seems to be in a weakened position. “Yogi ji has lost the moral right to rule after the result,” said a former MLA. “He might be pitching his brand of hindutva aggressively, but without party support he would not be able to pull it off.”
Said Sudhir Panwar, Samajwadi Party: “If push comes to shove, and Yogi has to leave, it will be like the leaving of [former chief minister] Kalyan Singh. It will not be pleasant.” Singh was removed by the BJP during his second tenure as chief minister. He quit and floated his own party a year later.
Yogi, however, is no pushover. He has already started making preparations for the bypolls in 10 assembly seats. The poll results would be crucial, because failure could well be the deluge that could sweep Yogi away.