On August 23, more than a thousand people gathered at a ground behind the Shahu sugar cooperative in Kagal, near the Karnataka border in Kolhapur district. The sugar cooperative was launched a few decades ago by Vikramsinh Raje Ghatge, the late head of the Kagal royal family. The meeting was convened by his son Samarjeet, who is close to Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Samarjeet wanted to decide his future course of action after it became clear that the Kagal assembly seat would go to sitting MLA and minister Hasan Mushrif of the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) in the upcoming polls.
The Ghatges and Mushrifs are known political opponents. In 2019, Samarjeet had contested as an independent against Mushrif (that time the seat went to the undivided Shiv Sena which was in an alliance with the BJP) and finished second with over 88,000 votes. Now with the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP being part of the ruling Mahayuti along with the BJP and the Shinde faction of the Sena, the BJP is unable to deliver on the promise it made to Samarjeet that he would be the party's candidate from Kagal in the 2024 assembly elections.
Two weeks ago, THE WEEK revealed that Samarjeet, who is in his early 40s, would raise the banner of rebellion and join the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP to contest against Mushrif. He refused to speak to this correspondent back then, but this time, he opened up. “The party [NCP-Sharad Pawar] will announce (Samarjeet’s joining date, which is said to be September 3). It is the party’s prerogative. There is no development in Kagal. We do not have a dialysis centre here. We have to go to Kolhapur or Nipani or Gadhinglaj.” When asked whether Fadnavis had promised to make him an MLC (member of legislative council),Samarjeet said he was not interested. “I am interested in getting elected by the people.” He is in touch with nearly 25,000 supporters through WhatsApp groups. He has also given jobs to nearly 4,000 people through his Shahu group.
Shivaji Magdum, a Samarjeet supporter and former sarpanch of Ekondi village, said the BJP did not do injustice to Samarjeet. “We are not opposed to the BJP, but we are opposed to Mushrif. He is enemy number one for us. Even die-hard BJP supporters in Kagal will vote for Samarjeet,”said Magdum.
Shakila Shane Diwan, a woman supporter of Samarjeet, said Muslims like her would vote for him. “I feel Fadnavis did not do justice to him. The BJP played politics of convenience,”said Shakila.
Kagal’s political history revolves around leaders and not parties. The constituency was represented by the late Sadashiv Mandlik, a close Sharad Pawar aide, for a long time. When Mandlik moved to the Lok Sabha, Mushrif became MLA in 1999. Since then, he has represented Kagal. Samarjeet gave him a tough fight in 2019, despite contesting as an independent. Now his supporters want him to contest once again.
Around 50km from Kagal is Radhanagari constituency, currently held by Prakash Abitkar of the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena. If Samarjeet has raised the banner of rebellion in Kagal, in Radhanagari it is K.P. Patil, a Pawar family loyalist who sided with Ajit when the NCP split. He now wants to return to the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
“In the Lok Sabha elections, we worked for Congress candidate Shahu Maharaj. I have been thinking since then [about joining the MVA],”said Patil, who lost to Abitkar in 2019. He is waiting to see which MVA partner would get the Radhanagari seat and plans to make his move accordingly.
Another leader facing a similar dilemma is Harshvardhan Patil from Indapur. Coming from a Congress family, he first got elected as an MLA in 1995 as an independent. He declared support to the Shiv Sena-BJP government and managed to become a minister of state. He later joined the Congress and remained an MLA till 2014. In 2014, when all parties fought assembly elections independently, Harshvardhan lost to Datta Bharne of the NCP. In 2019, when it became clear that Bharne, a close aide of Ajit Pawar, would retain Indapur, Harshvardhan joined the BJP. It was Harshvardhan who said that after joining the BJP, he sleeps peacefully without worrying about any agencies.
Bharne is likely to contest from Indapur once again and it has put a question mark over Harshvardhan’s future. His supporters want him to rebel and his daughter Ankita has said that he will contest as an independent. But Harshvardhan has not made any public statements so far.
Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule reportedly said that Harshvardhan was a big leader and that he would take a decision that would benefit the entire state. This has led to speculation that he was in talks with Sharad Pawar and could contest as an independent against Bharne. “Media has been discussing all options for Harshvardhan, but has not talked about the possibility of him returning to the Congress. I will not be surprised if he returns to Congress and then Sharad Pawar gives up the claim on Indapur seat so that Harshvardhan can contest on a Congress ticket,”said political analyst Abhay Deshpande.
Such developments signify that assembly elections are not going to be like Lok Sabha elections which was a straight fight between the MVA and the Mahayuti. Deshpande said emerging trends showed that ambitious leaders who controlled about 50,000 votes could either switch parties or contest as independents, giving rise to the possibility of independents getting elected in large numbers like it happened in 1995.
“Everything depends on how seat sharing takes place,”said Deshpande. “There are Ajit Pawar MLAs like Sunil Tingre and Atul Benke who have given the indication that they will return to Sharad Pawar's party. In every assembly election, established second-rung leaders make a switch if they do not see the possibility of getting a ticket. So seat sharing is going to be very crucial for both alliances to keep their flock together and reduce chances of rebellion.”