The forming of an alliance between the Congress and the National Conference (NC) for the assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir is a significant development. A similar alliance, aimed at countering the BJP, had shown promising results in the Lok Sabha polls―the NC secured two of the three seats in Kashmir, while the Congress, despite losing two seats in Jammu to the BJP, increased its vote share.
Together, the NC and the Congress won 41.6 per cent of votes in the Lok Sabha polls, and led in 41 of the 90 assembly segments. The BJP, with a vote share of 24.4 per cent, led in 29 assembly segments. The People’s Democratic Party, which was kept out of the NC-Congress alliance even though it was part of the INDIA bloc, secured 8.4 per cent of votes and led in five assembly seats.
Together, the NC, the Congress and the PDP secured around 50 per cent votes and led in 46 assembly segments. Though the choice of candidates and local factors will come into play in the assembly polls, observers believe that the broader contours will be similar to that of the Lok Sabha elections.
There is no overwhelming wave in favour of the NC-Congress alliance, even though it is expected to consolidate anti-BJP votes. With defections having weakened the PDP, the NC remains the only regional party that has weathered the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370. The Congress aims to leverage the NC’s organisational strength to counter the BJP and reclaim its position as an important player, especially in the Hindu-majority Jammu.
The NC-Congress alliance is not without problems, though. There have been concerns about grassroots coordination and disagreements regarding seat-sharing. On August 22, after the alliance was formally agreed upon, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and leader of the opposition Rahul Gandhi addressed party workers in Srinagar, assuring them that an alliance would maintain the “respect of Congress workers”. “The workers have devoted their entire lives to upholding the Congress ideology and advancing the party’s vision. I am aware of the challenges you have faced,” said Rahul.
There was disagreement regarding sharing of seats in Kashmir and Jammu’s Muslim-majority Chenab Valley, which comprises Ramban, Doda and Kishtwar districts. The Congress, sources said, insisted that the seats they had won in the past be allocated to them. The NC, however, opposed it. As the deadlock persisted, the Congress leadership sent two senior leaders, K.C. Venugopal and Salman Khurshid, to Srinagar on August 26 to iron out differences.
After intense deliberations at NC leader Farooq Abdullah’s residence, the parties came to an agreement on seat-sharing just before the August 27 deadline for filing nominations for the first phase of the polls. It was decided that the NC would contest 51 seats and the Congress 32, with one seat each allocated to the CPI(M) and the Jammu-based J&K Panthers Party. Both the Congress and the NC will field candidates in five seats―Sopore (a separatist stronghold won twice by Congress leader Abdul Rashid), Banihal, Bhaderwah, Doda and Nagrota. “It brings us great satisfaction that we have completed the negotiations, and we will jointly fight the elections,” said Abdullah.
State Congress president Tariq Hameed Karra said the parties respected each other’s sensitivities while reviewing constituencies and finally reaching an agreement. “There will be a friendly contest in five seats where we faced difficulties in reaching an agreement,” he said.
Venugopal said the INDIA bloc’s main objective was to save Kashmir, which the BJP was trying to destroy. “That is why the NC and the Congress have come together to form a government that is friendly to the people. When we form government, there will be a common minimum programme,” he said.
Even though the alliance has tried to narrow down differences, challenges remain. The ‘friendly’ contest between the NC and the Congress in five seats could split the Muslim vote in places like Bhaderwah, where the Muslim and Hindu populations are nearly equal. In the last assembly polls, a three-way split in the Muslim vote between the NC, the PDP and the Congress had helped the BJP win the seat.
The problem of vote transfer between supporters of the two parties is also a concern. “That is something we cannot control,” said an NC leader. The alliance also faces the challenge of preventing disgruntled leaders from contesting as independents.
In the Muslim-majority Rajouri and Poonch districts, the alliance faces the test of winning the support of the Paharis, a community that is predominantly Muslim but includes Hindus as well. Five of the nine seats that are reserved for the scheduled tribes are in the region. Last year, the BJP granted ST status to the Paharis and three Hindu castes―Paddari, Kolis, and Gadda Brahmins. It caused discontent among the Gujjars and made the contests in Rajouri and Poonch highly competitive.
The BJP intends to field a few Muslim candidates in the region to bolster its chances. The rationale is that a Muslim candidate will attract both Muslim and Hindu votes, especially in seats where delimitation has altered the population ratio in favour of Hindus. The BJP’s recent induction of Chaudhary Zulfiqar Ali, a prominent Gujjar leader in Rajouri who won the 2008 and 2014 assembly polls, is a case in point.
As the first phase of the election on September 18 draws near, the ability of the NC and the Congress to address challenges and rally their supporters will be crucial. That will not only impact the outcome of the election, but also shape the future of Jammu and Kashmir.