The ongoing assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir promise to be a closely fought contest. The National Conference-Congress alliance has momentum, especially in Kashmir and parts of Jammu, but it faces a challenge from new political players such as Engineer Rashid, leader of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). The JeI is backing candidates in seven seats―five in south and two in north Kashmir―while the AIP is contesting 34 seats.
The collaboration between Rashid and the JeI has caused unease in the NC and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the two main regional parties.Rashid’s appeal has grown a lot after he won the Baramulla Lok Sabha election from jail, defeating the NC’s Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone of the People’s Conference (PC). The NC and the PDP have alleged that Rashid, who was granted interim bail on September 10, is a BJP proxy released to split the opposition vote. Given the region’s complex demographics, even a small shift in voter preference could affect outcomes in several constituencies.
Although there is no overwhelming wave of support for the NC-Congress alliance, the NC’s leadership and strong organisational structure have helped it navigate the aftermath of the removal of Article 370 better than parties like the PDP. This was reinforced by the party’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls.
As for the Congress, it is buoyed by its increased vote share of 19 per cent, despite losing both Jammu seats to the BJP.
The PDP, though excluded from the alliance because of the NC’s opposition, aligns with the anti-BJP stance. Together, the NC-Congress alliance and the PDP led in 46 assembly segments―the number needed to form government―in the Lok Sabha elections.
Notably, it was the PDP that had previously benefited from JeI support. “The real JeI is behind bars with the ED and NIA targeting them,” said PDP president and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti during a campaign in Pulwama. She said JeI schools were banned, members’ houses locked and their orchards seized. “They split it like they split the PDP,” she said, urging Delhi to lift the ban and allow the JeI to rejoin the electoral process.
After PDP and Rashid supporters clashed in Shopian, Mufti questioned AIP’s funding. “Engineer Rashid was in jail,” she said. “How is his party fielding candidates everywhere?” NC president Farooq Abdullah also weighed in, claiming prisoners were being released to divide the Muslim vote. Even Lone questioned the timing of Rashid’s release, hinting at a BJP plan.
Rashid, for his part, has dismissed the allegations of being a BJP proxy. “I got over four lakh votes in the Lok Sabha elections and defeated Omar Abdullah by more than two lakh votes. Yet, I am being accused of siphoning off votes.”
He emphasised that the cooperation with the JeI was aimed at raising the voice of Kashmiris and finding a solution to the Kashmir problem. “We will support the JeI candidates, and they will support our candidates,” he said. “In some seats, there will be a friendly contest, and both parties will field candidates.”
The JeI, too, has defended its decision to rejoin electoral politics. “We stayed away from elections due to concerns about the lack of transparency after 1987,” said Sayar Ahmed Reshi, JeI’s candidate from Kulgam, a stronghold of CPI(M) leader Muhammad Yousuf Tarigami. “Otherwise, JeI is the only organisation that elects all its officials through a consultative system (shura).”
He said that after the recent ‘free and fair’ Lok Sabha polls, they felt they should come forward and provide people with a sympathetic leadership. “Our agenda is peace and development with dignity,” he said.
Dr Talat Majeed, the JeI’s candidate in Pulwama, said the JeI had no role in starting militancy in Kashmir. “Other religious groups also had their militant wings; why single out JeI?’’ he asked. “I think whatever can be achieved is through political engagement.”
Altaf Thakur, the BJP’s chief spokesperson in Jammu and Kashmir, rubbished claims that Rashid was his party’s proxy. “Our opponents have already accepted defeat and that is why these allegations are being made,” he said.
The BJP has fielded candidates for 19 of the 47 seats in the valley. Ram Madhav, the BJP’s election in-charge for Jammu and Kashmir, said his party aims to win 35 seats in Jammu and 10 in Kashmir. “If this happens, those who ruined J&K for years are kept at bay,” he said. However, observers note that the BJP’s chances in Kashmir are slim, largely due to its role in stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its limited autonomy. The party is banking on opposition to the NC-Congress alliance, the PDP, and support from disgruntled candidates running as independents after being denied tickets by their parties. “There are 908 candidates in the fray, and 40 per cent of them are independents,” said a political analyst. “This has led to allegations that most have been propped up by the BJP to divide the vote. Some of them have a good chance of winning because they have won elections in the past and have support in their constituencies.” The BJP is particularly eyeing candidates associated with the JeI.
The party is also facing challenges in Jammu, its traditional stronghold, where many workers are unhappy over the denial of tickets to 10 senior leaders, including former deputy chief minister Dr Nirmal Singh and Kavinder Gupta. To address this, Singh and Gupta were named the J&K election campaign committee chairman and the state election management committee head.
Despite these efforts, some BJP leaders who were denied a ticket have decided to contest as independents. “Tickets have been given to those who have joined the party recently,” remarked a BJP leader. “Those who worked for the party for decades have been dropped.”
The BJP is confident that anger among the workers will not impact its performance due to its strong nationalist and religious appeal to the majority community in Jammu. However, given the surge in the Congress vote share in Jammu during the Lok Sabha polls and the party’s alliance with NC, the BJP’s target of securing a lion’s share in the overwhelmingly Hindu districts of Udhampur, Kathua and Samba, remains a challenge.