IN THE FIERCELY contested Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, the stakes were particularly high in the second phase, on September 25. The first phase, on September 18, had seen a strong voter turnout of more than 61 per cent, and the second, covering 26 assembly segments, featured former chief minister Omar Abdullah, Apni Party president Altaf Bukhari and BJP state president Ravinder Raina.
Omar is fighting to reclaim the family stronghold of Ganderbal, which his grandfather Sheikh Abdullah won in 1977. In 2014, Omar, the sitting MLA, made way for Ishfaq Jabbar, who won, but the latter was expelled from the National Conference in 2023 for “anti-party” activities. While the NC retains support in Ganderbal, the entry of Bashir Mir, of the People’s Democratic Party, has made the race competitive. In 2014, Mir had narrowly lost to NC’s Mian Altaf by just over 1,400 votes in the Kangan constituency.
“The people of Ganderbal have been voting for 70 years but never had access to their representative,” said Mir. “This time, they want a candidate who is local and accessible.” Observers, however, believe that Mir’s “outsider” dig at Omar may not resonate, as he himself is not from Ganderbal.
Omar also faces competition from Jabbar, now an independent, as well as from jailed cleric Sarjan Ahmad Wagay and Awami Ittehad Party’s Sheikh Ashiq. Omar has labelled Wagay and Ashiq as “BJP agents” trying to split the vote.
Omar is relying on the NC’s grassroots support and past contributions, including the setting up of a Central university in Ganderbal. In a rare emotional moment at a party meeting after filing his nomination, he removed his cap and appealed to his supporters: “My honour is in your hands.”
Spreading saffron: Amit Shah with Ravinder Raina during a rally in Nowshera | PTI
Omar also contested from the Budgam seat, where his main opponent was the PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir, a Shia leader and cousin of NC MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi. The influential Aga family holds sway over Budgam’s Shia Muslims, who make up 40 per cent of the electorate. “The Shia vote will split, but we expect a larger share because of Ruhullah,” said an NC leader. “That’s why we have fielded Omar―he’s also likely to attract a significant portion of the Sunni vote.”
This election is also crucial for Altaf Bukhari, who was one of the first Kashmiri politicians to engage with the Centre after the abrogation of Article 370. The NC and the PDP have labelled his party as the BJP’s “B team”, which has hurt his prospects in Chanapora. Observers say the JKAP’s future hinges on Bukhari’s performance in this election.
Bukhari had gone door to door in Chanapora, promising to fight for the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood. However, he did tell locals that no party could form the government alone. “We’ve been split into so many pieces that nobody listens to anyone,” he said. “We will have to make compromises.”
He has also been critical of the NC-Congress alliance, saying, “I don’t understand which soap they have washed the Congress with. They used to call them insects from a filthy drain.”
Bukhari’s main rival is the NC’s Mushtaq Guroo, who relied on the party’s strong organisational structure and the perception that the NC is ahead.
Bukhari is banking on his goodwill as a former minister in the PDP-BJP government, which collapsed in 2018. After delimitation, parts of Budgam have been merged with Chanapora, adding complexity to the race.
Nowshera, a key seat in Rajouri district, is another hotly contested constituency. BJP state president Ravinder Raina, who is seeking re-election, was up against the NC’s Surinder Choudhary, who enjoys strong support. In 2014, Raina defeated Choudhary, then a PDP candidate, by 9,503 votes. This time, though, the contest is expected to be tougher. The BJP is banking on the support of the Pahari community, which was recently granted ST status. This move, however, angered the Gujjars and Bakerwals (both on the list), who feel the Paharis don’t qualify for the classification.
Nowshera has traditionally been a Congress bastion; the party has won five of seven times since 1977, with the NC and the BJP each winning once.
Raina, known for his ability to connect with people of all faiths, is the only BJP leader widely recognised in Kashmir. Union Home Minister Amit Shah backed Raina―an RSS man―at a rally in Nowshera on September 22. “Ravinder Raina’s voice is heard strongly in both Srinagar and Delhi,” said Shah. On the other hand, Choudhary’s campaigns have been equally forceful and impressive. “Raina will have to tell the people what he has done for them in the past ten years,’’ he told a large gathering in Nowshera. “The people here know that this is a 19-year-old relationship. Our bond is one of happiness and grief.”
In another meeting, he criticised the government’s Agniveer scheme, saying it had not helped the youth who wanted to join the Army.
Observers say that Raina and Choudhary are locked in a tough battle and the winner is difficult to predict.
A key battleground in this phase, which has aroused curiosity, is the newly created Shri Mata Vaishno Devi constituency in Reasi district. This seat, carved out after delimitation, saw a heated contest between the BJP’s Baldev Raj Sharma, the NC-Congress candidate Bhupinder Singh, the PDP’s Partap Krishan Sharma, and the four independent candidates―Jugal Kishore, Bansi Lal, Raj Kumar and Sham Singh. Another high-profile candidate in the fray is the Jammu and Kashmir Congress president Tariq Hameed Karra, who contested from Central Shalteng in Srinagar. A former member of the PDP, Karra was a vocal critic of the BJP-PDP alliance and left the party in 2016. He joined the Congress in 2017.
Karra replaced Vikar Rasool as state party president in August, ahead of the assembly elections, after some Congress leaders complained to the high command about the latter’s style of functioning.
A day before the campaigning for second phase ended, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressed a rally in Shalteng to support Karra. “Jammu and Kashmir was not only downgraded to a Union territory,” said Gandhi, “but this place is now ruled by outsiders against the wishes of the people.”
He will have to wait till October 8 to see if the Kashmiris agree.