AMID THE INTENSE discussion about how the Jat anger would influence the Haryana assembly polls, it seems the dalit voter is quietly emerging as the X factor.
After Punjab, Haryana has the highest proportion of dalits in the population. The scheduled castes make around 20 per cent of the state’s total population of 2.53 crore, as per the 2011 census. Of 90 Vidhan Sabha seats in the state, 17 are reserved for the scheduled castes. Dalits can make a difference in about 50 seats where their share in the population is between 15 and 20 per cent.
The importance of scheduled castes as a constituency that can make or break electoral fortunes is not lost on the political parties. In fact, the dalit voter is an important element in the electoral strategy of all the major parties in the fray.
Dalits are believed to have played a major role in the Congress winning five seats in Haryana in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. The party had drawn a blank in the 2019 elections. The Congress won both the seats reserved for the scheduled castes―Ambala and Sirsa.
It is said that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s ‘400 paar’ slogan was interpreted by the scheduled castes as an indication of the party’s alleged plans to alter the framework of reservations. This might have resulted in the dalits turning away from the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls.
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In the assembly elections in 2014, the BJP had won seven seats reserved for the scheduled castes and the Congress had won four. In 2019, the BJP’s number came down to five and the Congress’s went up to seven. “The dalits in Haryana have traditionally been supporters of the Congress,” said Prof Ashutosh Kumar, department of political science, Panjab University. “However, they are not a homogeneous entity and there are divisions within the SC community which both the Congress and the BJP are trying to utilise.”
For the ruling BJP, the dalit voter is of special interest since it is hoping to stitch up an alliance of castes to take on the Jats, who appear to be consolidating behind the Congress.
Shortly after the results of the Lok Sabha elections were declared, the BJP went into damage control mode. Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini posted pictures on the microblogging site X showing him in a meeting with officials to review the implementation of projects for the scheduled castes. “The BJP continues to have the trust of the dalit community because of its tried and tested policies in the state and at the Centre in the last ten years,” said party leader Ashok Tanwar.
The BJP is also hoping that the divisions within the community will work in the party’s favour. In an effort to ensure the support of the non-Jatav dalits who had voted for the BJP in the past, the Saini government announced 20 per cent quota in government jobs for the SCs and 10 per cent of the reservation for the deprived among them. The dominant Jatavs and their sub-castes have not taken kindly to the decision, but the rest of the community welcomed it, said a BJP leader. The party’s assessment, he said, is that a divide within the SC community would help the BJP, especially if the contests are close. The party has fielded more non-Jatav candidates than Jatavs. The Congress, on the other hand, has fielded more Jatavs.
The Congress is hoping to build on the gains it made in the Lok Sabha polls and takes heart from the stance of the dalit community in that election. The party is hoping that the Jat-dalit-Muslim combination that helped it in the Lok Sabha polls would continue to favour it in the assembly elections. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the face of the party’s campaign, is a Jat and its state unit president Udai Bhan is a dalit. Kumari Selja, Lok Sabha member from Sirsa, is a prominent dalit leader. She was said to be upset about the party high command giving Hooda a free hand and was absent from the campaign in the initial days. There is a concern that this could influence the dalit voters.
Hooda said the BJP finished the jobs of dalits and backward classes by implementing Kaushal Nigam, a company set up for providing contract workers to government entities. “They closed 5,000 government schools, thus impacting the education of their children. They stopped the scholarship scheme for children and the scheme wherein plots of 100 square yards were being given. Why will dalits and the backward classes vote for the BJP?”
Both the Congress and the BJP are looking keenly at the two alliances that have been formed between parties that draw their influence from Jats or dalits―the alliance between the Indian National Lok Dal and the Bahujan Samaj Party, and the tie-up between the Jannayak Janata Party and Chandrashekar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party.
In close contests, a third player could harm the Congress. “The election will largely be a two-party contest, with the INLD-BSP or the JJP-ASP or the AAP not expected to make much of a difference,” said Ashutosh Kumar. “The reason for this is that people will vote taking into account the winnability factor. However, they may cost the Congress some votes and perhaps one or two seats.”