The frosty India-Canada ties await a spring. And the next spring in Canada may bring hope for India. The Canadian government is expected to table its budget in April, and there are indications that it may turn out to be the cruellest month for the minority government of Justin Trudeau. That’s because the Conservatives are unlikely to support it, and unless the Liberal Party gets support from at least one or two opposition parties, it can be forced into an election. And, the outcome of the next election will hold the key to a thaw in India-Canada ties.
At the moment, various poll ratings indicate a gap of over 20 per cent in favour of the Conservative Party; some show a 15 per cent to 24 per cent gap. The local people admit that the ruling party seems to be at an almost unrecoverable point. And this has happened over just a few weeks.
While Trudeau was not very popular before the pandemic, his popularity got a boost during Covid-19, say local residents. “Unless something very dramatic happens, it is unlikely that Trudeau will win again,” says Jonathan Berkshire Miller, director of foreign affairs, national security and defence at Macdonald-Laurier Institute, an Ottawa-based think tank. “In any case, the maximum period for the polls to take place will be less than a year. In all likelihood, it will be October. So, I think it is a matter of when, not if.”
For the next government in Canada, there will be an opportunity for a new start. It will be challenging though. The Conservatives will want to engage and partner with India on strategic and economic issues, but Trudeau’s public allegations against India have coloured the atmosphere, making it difficult for the new government to follow a pro-India foreign policy. “I suspect while we will see less antagonism, less public comments, it will still be very quiet diplomacy in the initial stages,” says Miller.
Miller admits that the allegations of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police accusing Indian diplomats and consular officials of being complicit in violence, intimidation and murders on its soil are bizarre. “Even more strange is that our federal police came out with a press conference,” he says. “Normally, law enforcement professionals don’t get involved in politics. Yet, what is surprising is that we still have an active investigation. I am not sure if it is the most responsible thing to do.”
That sentiment is echoed in India, too, raising a lot of questions about the behaviour of the RCMP. Does a policing agency like the RCMP act purely on intelligence? If investigation of crimes and criminal networks is its mandate, why has it not been a bit more descriptive about organised crime in Canada? Thirdly, if evidence collection is at the heart of the ongoing probe in the Hardeep Singh Nijjar murder case, why has Canada not questioned the close associates of Lawrence Bishnoi gang, named by the RCMP recently as having links with “Indian agents”?
New Delhi has shared dossiers with evidence of dozens of accused in crime and terror cases in India hiding in Canada, with case details, addresses, links and passport numbers and the year they fled to Canada. “International procedures demand that the known associates of absconding criminals are at least questioned by the host country,” says Atul Kulkarni, former special director general of National Investigation Agency.
But Ottawa seems to have totally ignored the part of the story where some Khalistan supporters have serious criminal records and whose presence is a threat to domestic security, says an Indian security official. Instead, the presence of Indian diplomats as ‘persons of interest’ in the Nijjar murder case is being cited as a threat, which is preposterous, he adds.
To top it all, while investigations in Canada are still underway, there are calls for sanctions against India. These are largely from the minority NDP party, which is very critical of the Indian government. “I don’t think the Liberal government is that careless. Even though it is careless in other things, it would not be taking such a step. I would imagine that would be very difficult for them to do,” says Miller.
But Trudeau appears to be swamped by political compulsions to remain in power. He testified at the foreign interference inquiry commission recently. The timing is interesting because it happened just a couple of days after the second round of accusations naming Indian diplomats. The Trudeau government had set up an inquiry commission in 2023 to probe allegations of foreign interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections in Canada.
“The foreign interference commission has said many times that China is by far the largest foreign interference actor here,” says Miller. “I think most people who are not even geopolitical experts understand that China is a global adversary in many ways.”
The Canadian intelligence brass is alert to threats from foreign interference operations as the country faced an aggressive onslaught in the last few years. “To some extent, it is a consequence of the fact that we are largely a country of immigrants, coupled with the fact that some countries see their former citizens as either a threat or an opportunity,” explains Ward Elcock, former director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.
But Miller cautions against putting India in the same bracket as China and other adversaries. Chinese interference has different faces in Canada. Its closeness to certain private businesses with political clout may not hold much sway over the voters, but there is worry about their influence on the outcome. There have also been instances of intimidation against members of parliament or individuals who might take positions that are against Chinese interests, like Taiwan or the genocide in Xinjiang, says Miller.
In the melee of allegations against the Indian High Commissioner and six diplomats who were brought home by New Delhi, Canadians seem to have missed the point of whether China was actively trying to position its candidates in the next elections. A glaring example is the comparatively quiet exit of a Chinese diplomat in Toronto, who was declared persona non grata on May 9, 2023. At the time, Canadian foreign minister Melanie Joly said her country won’t tolerate any interference in its internal affairs. Beijing reacted by expelling the Canadian consul. It is believed that the Chinese diplomat’s expulsion happened after many attempts to downplay the matter.
“The point is that Canada is bending over backwards with China as we don’t want to provoke them,” says Miller. “Imagine what would happen if Canada sent home the Chinese ambassador and six Chinese diplomats. It is unthinkable. So, I think we have to recognise the double standard here.”
Mending relations that have gone sour is no easy task. Canadian diplomats admit that the worst scenario would be if New Delhi were to just cut off diplomatic ties. That would be very difficult for even the next government in Ottawa to resume. Even now with the high commissioner going back to New Delhi, the thinning of diplomatic presence is high on the cards. There are attempts being made by the Canadians for a track II dialogue if direct talks are not possible. Elcock admits that after the position adopted by India since the meeting between Canadian and Indian officials in Singapore, it appears that short-term measures may not help much.
New Delhi has left no stone unturned to stress on the terror-criminal nexus of pro-Khalistan gangs, like Nijjar’s and Bishnoi’s, operating from Canada to target Indian states. Kulkarni said Bishnoi’s gang has terrorised many north Indian states, which is why the NIA was asked to probe and dismantle it.
While intelligence agencies on both sides may not see eye to eye at the moment, civil society voices want the political leadership to at least keep the windows of basic diplomacy open. The second step can be relaxation of movement of people and goods since India and Canada still have a massively significant people-to-people ties. Ottawa needs to keep the interest of the Indian Canadians and students in mind by not letting them fall prey to politics and ensuring the visas keep flowing. While there may not be any movement on trade agreements at the moment, the businesses and private sector should not feel punished. There is also a thinking within Canadian circles of a dialogue between the media on both sides to explain the domestic dynamics to each other to avoid assumptions in reports.
“This is especially important for Canada, which is recently taking interest in the Indo-Pacific,” says Miller. “If we want to be even remotely relevant in this part of the world, having an injurious relationship with India is not going to help.”
There may be no short-term solutions, as Elcock warns, but Canadians may still be ready to look at their relationship with Indians in the long term.