VIOLENT REGIME CHANGES have left many countries a shambles, with successor puppet regimes rarely managing to bring stability. Examples include Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Ukraine. Bangladesh is the latest victim of such a regime change, as it struggles to cope with the consequences of Sheikh Hasina’s ouster as prime minister.
Ultimately, it was the Bangladeshi army’s decision to collaborate in the regime-change operations, possibly under compulsions both external and internal, that delivered the coup de grace. The imposition of Prof Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize winner known to be friendly with former US presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, as chief adviser and head of the interim government (IG) has provided acceptability to an unconstitutional government. During his US visit, Yunus, who has never been a professional politician, introduced one of the student leaders by praising his “meticulous” planning of the agitation to overthrow Hasina.
Both Washington and Islamabad welcomed Hasina’s exit. China, too, has quickly engaged with the Yunus regime. India, adopting a low-key approach, has had limited engagement with the IG. The only high-level meeting was between India’s external affairs minister and the Bangladeshi foreign adviser on the sidelines of the UN meeting in September. Scheduling problems prevented a meeting in New York of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yunus, though Modi tweeted his greetings and appealed for the protection of Hindus facing targeted violence in Bangladesh. Later, Yunus telephoned Modi and had a conversation.
The jubilation that followed Hasina’s exit has been short-lived. Bangladesh has been transformed into an unstable, undemocratic and violence-prone country. The domestic situation is marked by instability and systematic reprisals against workers, minorities, mainly Hindus, and leaders of Hasina’s Awami League (AL). Several thousands have been killed, maimed and their houses and businesses looted. Hindu women have been raped and forcibly converted, temples desecrated, and houses looted and burnt. Facing attacks, members of tribal communities in the Chittagong Hill Tracts have taken refuge in Mizoram.
AL leaders have been arrested on trumped-up charges. Hundreds of cases have been filed against Hasina and AL leaders for murder and even genocide. Journalists, cultural personalities and academicians have also not been spared by student groups and Islamist gangs. Thousands of people have been forced to resign at gunpoint. Mobs have besieged newspaper offices, attacked industries and burnt factories. High court and appellate division judges were forced to resign at gunpoint, and judges friendly to the Yunus regime have been appointed.
Islamists convicted for murder have been released. Jashimuddin Rahmani, head of Ansarullah Bangla Team and convicted for murdering atheist bloggers, has called upon all Muslims to fight for the independence of Kashmir. He has appealed to the West Bengal chief minister to secede from India. Another Islamist leader has demanded that jizya (Islamic tax on non-Muslims) be implemented in Bangladesh. Yunus appears unable or unwilling to control Islamists.
Hindus, with their backs to the wall, have organised themselves to protest the atrocities against them. A Hindu monk, Chinmoy Krishna Das, had led this effort. Large demonstrations have been held in parts of the country, which is unprecedented because Hindus have generally not been aggressive. When East Pakistan was created in 1947, Hindus were 23 per cent of the population; today, they are around 8 per cent. Islamists in Bangladesh want to emulate Pakistan and make it Hindu-free, either by driving them into India or converting them into Muslims.
Meanwhile, social media is full of pictures showing people walking over the Indian tricolour painted at the entrance of various institutions, underlining the anti-India sentiments fanned by students and Islamists. There is backlash for it in Kolkata, with hospitals refusing to treat Bangladeshis. The Kolkata-Agartala bus was attacked and passengers threatened by Islamist mobs.
Yunus has been reduced to mouthing platitudes. He has repeatedly stated that attacks on Hindus are not “communal” but politically motivated because Hindus are largely AL supporters. After Chinmoy Krishna Das was arrested, India issued a statement, saying, “We are concerned about the surge of extremist rhetoric…. Increasing incidents of violence and provocation cannot be dismissed merely as media exaggerations. We call upon Bangladesh to take steps for the protection of minorities.”
Bangladesh has cautioned India not to interfere in the country’s internal affairs. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has expressed concern and supported the Indian government. She has also demanded that a UN force be deployed to protect Hindus. Hasina, too, has spoken out, demanding the release of Chinmoy Krishna Das and fair treatment of Hindus. The atrocities have grabbed global attention and demonstrations have been held in major capitals in the west.
Because it had cooperated with the Hasina government, India is viewed as an accomplice to her authoritarian rule that curbed dissent and rigged elections. For IG and its supporters, India has become a punching bag. The IG has appointed 10 commissions to suggest reforms, and appointed new members to the election commission. No time frame has been projected for the polls. Any attempt to ban the AL, the largest political party, will undermine the credibility of elections.
The political upheaval in Bangladesh is a setback to the wide-ranging ties developed under the Hasina government. Bangladesh became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia during Hasina’s tenure as PM, and it emerged as India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent. People-to-people ties grew, with 1.6 million Bangladeshis visiting India and topping the list of foreigners visiting India annually.
Bangladesh’s economy slowed down because of the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Forex reserves fell sharply, unemployment rates reached a high of 15.7 per cent, the taka depreciated, and the export of readymade garments, which make up around 80 per cent of the country’s export basket, declined. Funding from the International Monetary Fund, the US and China is shoring up forex reserves, but the economy is still not out of the woods.
The Yunus regime has reached out to Pakistan to normalise ties. The high court has acquitted all those convicted in the August 2024 grenade and machine gun attack on Hasina and AL leaders. One of those was the acting chairman of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, led by Khaleda Zia. This will facilitate his return after more legal hurdles are removed. The IG is clearly planning to prepare the ground for the BNP and the Islamists to win the next polls. The renewed outreach to Pakistan has the potential to revive the ISI’s activities under a BNP-Islamist coalition government to support Indian insurgent and terror groups.
India-Bangladesh bilateral ties have gone downhill, with India curtailing visa operations. Bangladesh wants Hasina to be handed over to it; there is a bilateral extradition treaty that can be invoked. But Bangladesh, which has so far hesitated to act, knows that the chances of India handing over Hasina are slim. Yunus has claimed that Bangladesh has been in talks with the Interpol and the International Criminal Court to proceed against Hasina.
Yunus should also investigate human rights violations that have occurred during his stewardship of the IG, particularly around 4,000 such cases involving Hindu and tribal communities. The IG should punish those who looted and set fire to the Indian Cultural Centre and attacked Indian visa centres.
Refraining from taking any action other than restricting visa operations, India prefers a “wait and watch” approach while permitting normal trade to restart. The Adani power project at Godda, Jharkhand, had signed a contract to provide its output to Bangladesh. It has come under the scanner because of nonpayment of dues amounting to $800 million. Part payment has come through after a disconnection notice was sent.
The IG has decided to review all such projects started by the Hasina government. India refused to intervene in this dispute as it is a private contract. Bangladesh has electricity shortage and India is a major supplier. Routine export of essential food items from India is back on track.
Without a roadmap to an elected government, Bangladesh faces an uncertain political future. India and Bangladesh cannot ignore each other, given geopolitical and economic realities. The incoming administration of Donald Trump in the US will add another layer of uncertainty in determining the way forward for Bangladesh.
Chakravarty was high commissioner to Bangladesh.