THE “FOREIGN HAND” is a familiar trope in Indian politics. As a tumultuous 2024 drew to a close, it was back in circulation. The Parliament’s winter session was in a logjam as the principal opposition, the Congress, and the ruling BJP traded allegations over corporate ties, tinged with accusations of foreign influence. The opposition protested the US market body’s indictment of billionaire Gautam Adani, perceived as close to the current dispensation. The BJP hit back with Congress leaders’ alleged links to George Soros, the Hungarian-American billionaire who it accused of attempting to destabilise the Modi government.
An uneasy truce was brokered as both sides agreed to discuss the 75 years of the Constitution of India. However, that quickly devolved into blame games. The winter session also saw mistrust between the chair and the opposition. In an unprecedented move in India’s parliamentary history, a no-confidence motion was brought against Rajya Sabha chairman, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar. The motion was rejected by deputy chairman Harivansh Narayan Singh.
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Generally, at the heart of these frequent disruptions is the opposition’s insistence on discussing contentious issues, which does not appeal to the government. During the second tenure of Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, the BJP paralysed the functioning of the Parliament over the coal and 2G scams. Back then, Arun Jaitley, the leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha, defended protests as an “intrinsic part of democracy”, arguing obstruction was sometimes necessary to hold the government accountable.
India’s parliamentary democracy, modelled after the Westminster system, has evolved to suit the country’s political and cultural landscape. Features like bicameral legislature and parliamentary sovereignty have stood the test of time. However, unlike the UK, India did not incorporate a key mechanism that could have addressed the concerns of the non-ruling parties―opposition day. This system, practised in the UK, allows the opposition to set the agenda for debate on specified days―20 days in a parliamentary session―thereby giving them a platform to voice concerns. As India celebrates the Constitution’s 75 years, such a proposal may be worth considering.
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2024 ended on a bitter note with regards to administration-opposition relations. Behind the scenes dialogue between the main parties to ease tensions was also missing. Earlier, the veterans on both the sides would hold a dialogue to allow each side a few concessions to let the house function. But with optics-driven politics, parties stick to their positions. There are hardly any pictures where the main leaders of the Congress and the BJP are photographed together in a cordial environment.
The impact of 2024, be it a feeling of distrust in Parliament or the election results―Lok Sabha and assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand―is likely to spill over to 2025 when elections are held in Delhi and Bihar, two states where incumbents fancy their chances despite strong opposition.
Delhi Chief Minister Atishi and AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal with other party leaders protesting Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks on B.R. Ambedkar in Parliament | PTI
In Delhi, the electorate has given clear mandates for more than 25 years, from Sheila Dikshit―making her the longest serving woman chief minister―to Arvind Kejriwal. The Aam Aadmi party national convener, who spent over five months in Tihar Jail on charges related to the alleged Delhi liquor scam, could be facing his toughest battle so far. The BJP has gone all out to take sheen off his anti-corruption crusade, the basis of his political identity. Photos of opulent fixtures at his previous official residence have been shown to dent his aam aadmi (common man) credentials. Assuming power after Dikshit’s fondly remembered 15-year tenure, Kejriwal crafted a pro-poor stance. He focused on slums and unauthorised colonies; on communities that lived on the fringes of a national capital replete with flyovers and ultra-luxury markets. This translated to mohalla clinics, revamped government schools, free electricity and water, and free travel for women.
However, despite the AAP retaining Delhi twice, the BJP held all seven Lok Sabha seats. This brought the AAP and the Congress together for the general elections, but, after the alliance failed (the BJP won all seven seats again), the allies are contesting separately in the assembly polls. The BJP sees itself in a fighting position in more than 50 of 70 seats; it won eight last time. The AAP and the Congress have already declared candidates for a majority of seats. Kejriwal is being challenged on home turf, New Delhi constituency, by his former associate and Congress candidate Sandeep Dikshit, son of Sheila Dikshit, and the BJP’s Parvesh Verma, son of former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma.
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All parties in Delhi are drawing inspiration from the trends of 2024 assembly polls, during which cash sops for women proved to be game changers. The AAP promised Rs2,100 to women, raising it from the current Rs1,000. The BJP and the Congress will be forced to at least match the offer.
What may work in Kejriwal’s favour in Delhi is that the BJP and the Congress are not likely to project anyone as chief ministerial candidate. The last three assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana have shown that whichever party provided a clear signal to the voters on the leadership got the mandate.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her eighth budget | PTI
After the February polls in Delhi, the action will shift to Bihar, where polls are due in October-November. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has carved out his own vote bank of mahadalits and women with enabling social welfare schemes. Days before Nitish, Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister, was to embark on his Mahila Samvad Yatra to engage with women voters, leader of the opposition Tejashwi Yadav came out with an attractive offer―Rs2,500 per month. This is the same amount that Chief Minister Hemant Soren offered in neighbouring Jharkhand to return to power. Nitish was forced to cancel his yatra, indicating what would have dominated the Janata Dal (United) national president’s samvad (dialogue) with the women.
Unlike in other states, the leadership on both sides is clear. Nitish will lead the National Democratic Alliance’s charge in the state, and Yadav, the Rashtriya Janata Dal chairman, is his challenger. In the last elections, the RJD had emerged as the single-largest party. The BJP had more seats than the JD(U), but had offered the chief minister’s post to Nitish. Maharashtra will play on the minds of allies if the BJP again gets more seats. But, Nitish is not shy about changing sides if he feels ignored.
What sets Bihar apart from other states is its highly polarised caste-based politics. The NDA has the caste arithmetic with it, but will it again be able to get the formula right? The RJD lays claim over the Yadav and Muslim vote banks, while other parties, like the Congress, are expected to get the upper caste votes. Bihar is the state in which the issue of employment is most important. It can sway polls. The state has been marred by student protests on various issues.
Both Bihar and Delhi polls are important for the two national alliances, the NDA and INDIA.
After a noteworthy performance in Lok Sabha polls, INDIA floundered in Haryana and Maharashtra, where they were favourites, indicating that the electorate cannot be taken for granted. This has led to questions over the Congress leading the alliance and many constituents indicating West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee could be the leader. As a result, the Congress will be under pressure to deliver, so that it can hold on to its leadership role.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to focus on the BJP’s ideological agenda. One Nation, One Election bills were introduced in the Lok Sabha towards the fag end of the winter session, thus indicating that 2025 will witness key legislations. The polarising debate over the Waqf Bill notwithstanding, the government will push for its passing and allies like the Telugu Desam Party, the JD(U) and the Lok Jankshakti Party (Ram Vilas) have shown their support.
2025 will get framed as an ideological battle between the opposition, led by a reinvigorated Rahul Gandhi, with Priyanka, too, proving to be an effective speaker for the opposition, and the ruling alliance. Modi is expected to push forward with the government’s cultural agenda as the world’s biggest religious congregation, the kumbh mela, begins in Prayagraj in January-February, coinciding with one year of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. How the battle for reclaiming other contentious sites pans out in the BJP-ruled states will depend on the Supreme Court’s decision on the 1991 Places of Worship Act.
2025 will witness centenary celebrations of two opposing political ideologies which have defined the cultural and academic atmosphere of India since independence. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh will complete 100 years in October and the Communist Party of India will hit the century mark in December; the CPI(M) had celebrated 100 years in 2020, but the CPI considers 1925 to be its starting point.
The communist movement may have declined, being confined to Kerala where the left alliance is in power, but the left ideology retained its hold on academia, students and other movements. Politically, while the CPI may have been forced to the sidelines (it has two Lok Sabha MPs), the RSS has been going strong pervading all the political, cultural and administrative sectors of our polity.
The RSS has risen to great heights after the Modi government came to power. The prime minister has made sure that its vision is reflected in the government’s outlook and decision making. RSS volunteers have paid him back by actively supporting the BJP’s campaign in elections, while building an enabling sentiment centred on the Hindu thought.
2025 will mark RSS initiating its year-long celebration centred on its five programmes for “social transformation”: samajik samarasata (social harmony), kutumb prabodhan (family preservation), paryavaran (environmental awareness), the insistence on swa (selfhood) and the duties of citizens.
The challenges for India emanate from its volatile neighbourhood and the changing global geopolitics. US president-elect Donald Trump may be friendly with Modi, but his policies may keep all countries on their toes. Similarly, the Indian economy may have performed better than its global counterparts, but the headwinds require Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to be agile. Her eighth budget―third highest for a finance minister, equalling Pranab Mukherjee’s record; P. Chidamabaram presented nine budgets, while Morarji Desai presented 10―on February 1 will be keenly awaited.