There is an ocean of difference between land and sea warfare. Of the 28 ‘significant and protracted’ naval wars throughout history―ranging from the 5th century BC naval fights between the Greeks and the Persians to the naval battles in World War II―as many as 25 were won by the side with the larger fleet. Only three were won by smaller but technologically more advanced fleets. In naval warfare, numbers matter and, in most cases, determine the fate of a battle in the seas. That is why there would have been wide smiles all around in the Indian Navy on January 15 when three brand new frontline naval combatants―INS Nilgiri, INS Surat and INS Vaghsheer, all constructed at the Mazagon dockyard in Mumbai―were inducted into service.
A frigate, INS Nilgiri is the first ship of the P17A stealth frigate project. It has advanced features for enhanced survivability, sea-keeping and stealth. The INS Surat is the fourth and final ship of the Visakhapatnam-class P15B guided missile destroyer project and is equipped with state-of-the-art weapon-sensor packages and advanced network-centric capabilities. Both warships have an indigenous content of 75 per cent.
The conventional diesel-electric INS Vaghsheer―named after a deep sea predator of the Indian Ocean―is the sixth and final ship of the Kalvari-class submarines of the P75 project, which are based on the Scorpene-class submarines built in collaboration with the French Naval Group.
It is for the first time that three frontline naval platforms have been pressed into service in the Indian Navy on the same day―a remarkable effort in view of the fact that the Indian Navy had added only 33 warships in the past decade or so. This simultaneous commissioning appears to be more a coincidence of timing than a sign of dramatically enhanced shipbuilding capability. Construction of INS Nilgiri and INS Surat began in December 2017 and November 2019, respectively, and their launches were carried out in September 2019 and May 2022. INS Vaghsheer was launched in April 2022.
With the Navy aiming to become ‘atmanirbhar’ by 2047, about 60 warships are being constructed in various Indian shipyards while there is “acceptance of necessity” for 31 ships and submarines, all of which will be made in India. This expansion occurs amid China building up its navy, with the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) expected to “grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030”, according to the Pentagon. The US Naval fleet is likely to have only about 260 ships and platforms by the end of the decade.
“[China’s warship building spree] has the potential to significantly alter the power balance that has prevailed in the western Pacific since World War II,” said Rear Admiral (retd) Monty Khanna, who was assistant military adviser in India’s National Security Council Secretariat. “The US is hard-pressed trying to preserve its maritime hegemony by building more ships and submarines, but is hampered in doing so as their shipyards have atrophied over the years.”
Without doubt there has been an unprecedented interest in building naval assets and platforms by major powers in the Indian Ocean Region, where the India-China maritime rivalry is prime. “The major powers are focusing more on sea power, primarily because of the unprecedented build up of the PLAN. This is upsetting the prevailing status quo in the western Pacific and has the potential to do so in the Indian Ocean as well,” said Khanna. He said the proliferation of lethal anti-ship weapons, such as cruise missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles and loitering munitions, has significantly increased the threat that even non-state actors, such as the Houthis, can project hundred miles out into sea. “Countering this will require robust ship-borne capabilities in addition to other levers,” he added.
While India views the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea as its backyard, the control over which is vital for its security and economic interests, China with its expeditionary intent, seeks to exert dominance over the Indian Ocean. “The naval arms race between China and India is something that is inevitable,” said Commodore (retd) R.S. Vasan, director-general of the Chennai-based Centre of China Studies. “While India enjoys the advantages of maritime geography, China has excellent in-house capability to build warships, submarines and modern aircraft.”
At present, China has the world’s largest navy, with more than 370 ships and submarines. PLAN has the declared intent of “speeding up the transition of its tasks from defence on the near seas to protection missions on the far seas”. It has replaced or updated its previous generations of platforms that had limited capabilities.
Pointing out the large disparity that India has with China in ship-building capability and deployable resources, Khanna said, “It would be unwise for us to enter into an arms race. A better option would be to adopt innovative means to ensure that, in spite of China’s military buildup, our maritime interests are protected. This requires a stronger focus on asymmetric means while retaining a healthy naval build. A continued focus on building strong relationships with regional and extra regional players is also needed.”
Playing catch-up with PLAN can be challenging for the Navy. Vasan pointed out that while India designed and built its own nuclear submarines, it was still dependent on western submarine builders for its conventional submarines. “While the Navy needs to be complemented for the sustained efforts to design and build its own ships,” he said, “a lot more needs to be done in terms of our ability to build all classes of combat platforms.”