Pakistan is entering yet another phase of political uncertainty with former prime minister Imran Khan sent to prison and the National Assembly completing its term. Under the advice of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly on August 9. Senator Anwaar-ul-haq Kakar was named as caretaker prime minister on August 12.
The Sindh and the Balochistan provincial assemblies were also dissolved. Provincial assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were dissolved by their Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) governments, in January. Elections have not taken place in these two provinces, despite the constitutional requirement to hold elections within 90 days and the directives of the supreme court. Many observers are, therefore, sceptical whether national elections will take place on time or not.
AP
The next elections will determine the political future of the PTI and its chairman, Imran Khan. Imran was arrested on August 5 after an Islamabad court found him guilty of “corrupt practices” in the Toshakhana (state gifts) case. He was sentenced to three years in jail and a fine of one lakh rupees and has been barred from politics for five years. The court said Imran “cheated while providing information about gifts he obtained from Toshakhana which later proved to be false and inaccurate” and that his “dishonesty has been established beyond doubt”.
Political analyst Asma Shirazi said Imran's political future was on the line after his conviction. “His party has voters and supporters on the ground, but the PTI itself is in disarray as some leaders left after the May 9 attacks (riots by PTI workers targeting government and military establishments following Imran's arrest) and some are in hiding. Imran does not have much trust in his own party and he has kept decision-making to himself while in jail,” said Shirazi. One of Imran's lawyers said on a talk show that decisions taken by the PTI core committee would be communicated to him through his lawyer and would be subject to his approval. “The PTI's future does not look too bright because of technical issues,” said Shirazi. “The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has issues caused by rising inflation, but the PTI is facing its own problems.”
Complicating matters further is the decision by the Shehbaz Sharif government to conduct the next general elections on the basis of the 2023 census. Once a census is approved, it is mandatory for the election commission to carry out a delimitation exercise to determine new electoral districts. Shirazi said holding elections under the new census was seen as an excuse to delay the process and that it was unlikely that the polls would take place this year. “From delimitation and other things, it will take a few more months. But it is also important that the next general elections are held before the senate elections in March 2024. How long will the caretaker setup stay is a question that looms large over Pakistan's political horizon, but it is quite clear that we cannot see elections at least till March.”
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, said that normally, new census results would require a constitutional amendment and a delimitation of constituencies. But he said the provincial share of population in the 2023 census was the same as it was in the previous census, so a constitutional amendment was not needed. “My view is that the results of the new census may not require fresh delimitation and therefore no extension in the date of election beyond 90 days be needed. This, however, has to be decided by the election commission and conclusively by the supreme court, if the election commission's decision is challenged,” said Mehboob.
Reuters
The PTI is suspicious about the government's manoeuvres. Farrukh Habib, the party's west Punjab unit president, told THE WEEK that under the constitution, it was mandatory to hold the elections within 90 days of the dissolution of the National Assembly. “Unfortunately, the government did not implement the supreme court’s verdict in this regard when it came to the Punjab and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies. The court had made it clear that it was the election commission’s duty to hold elections, but it failed to do so. And now, in the name of holding elections as per the 2023 census, delaying the elections will be mala fide.” Habib said the issue would go to the supreme court if the elections were delayed. “We will see whether the next chief justice (Qazi Faez Isa) will uphold the constitution and rule of law. Delaying elections has no constitutional basis. It will only lead to more uncertainty and will worsen the economic crisis. The people of Pakistan must be allowed to exercise their right to vote and their mandate should be respected.”
Habib also spoke in detail about Imran’s conviction and disqualification. He said the whole process started in April 2022 with the vote of no confidence against him. “There are around 200 cases against Imran. He survived an assassination attempt in Wazirabad last year, but the investigation was sabotaged. His house was attacked by the state. The way the judge sentenced him is for everyone to see—Imran did not get a fair trial. Justice died a silent death during his trial as he was not even allowed to present his witnesses.”
Habib said the entire process was “pre-planned” under what Imran calls the “London plan”. PTI supporters say a plan was hatched by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif in London to keep Imran out of politics. The party has already challenged Imran's sentence in the Islamabad high court. “Imran will contest the next elections,” said Habib. He highlighted the fact that after Imran's arrest, a relatively unknown candidate from the PTI won a Peshawar local government byelection, and that, too, from a seat the party had lost in the past. “Whoever gets PTI tickets will win the elections. Imran's voters are with him and they stand by his vision and ideology. The commitment of the people of Pakistan to Imran and his commitment to them stand intact.”
The PML(N), too, said that it wanted elections to be held on time. Senior leader Ahsan Iqbal told THE WEEK that the decision to hold the next general elections under the 2023 census was taken by Imran when he was in power. “The constitution requires new delimitation after a census is notified. The election commission has to give the election schedule. We hope that the elections will be held at the earliest, according to the constitution,” said Iqbal. He said the PML(N) saved the Pakistani economy from bankruptcy and also revived key development projects. “People know that inflation is caused by the conditions of the IMF agreement signed by the PTI government.” He added that Nawaz Sharif would return to Pakistan once the election schedule was announced.
Shirazi said Nawaz would lead the PML(N)'s campaign. “Nawaz will not return before the announcement of the elections. It may well happen in December once it is clear that elections will be held.”
The caretaker government which will run the show till the elections are held cannot conclude new agreements or contracts, but can only exercise its powers related to ongoing projects. Mehboob said the outgoing government had tried to grant much wider powers for the caretaker government by amending the Elections Act, but was forced to abandon the plan following widespread opposition in parliament. “The passed amendment has a narrow scope and the caretaker government will be able to make decisions only in the case of ongoing projects,” he said. “The scope is limited and it will not impact the election in any meaningful way