On July 14, the front pages of American newspapers splashed a riveting photograph: a combative Donald Trump, with blood running down from his right ear, pumping his fist in defiance after an assassin’s bullet nearly killed him. The American flag forming the backdrop of the former president’s bloodied face gave the moment an added context. The contrast with President Joe Biden’s debate debacle on June 27―the world saw on live television a frail, diminished and barely coherent candidate―could not have been starker.
Even Trump’s critics acknowledged his presence of mind, which helped turn a crisis into an opportunity. Despite the possibility of death at the hands of a lone gunman who fired at him during a campaign event at Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, Trump displayed admirable political instincts and situational awareness by getting back in charge seconds after an initial loss of composure. Trump knew the world was watching and he made sure that the image of his feisty response, which even the perennially unfriendly New York Times called “an incarnation of defiance”, would be what the voters will remember about the fateful evening. The shooter, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was killed by a Secret Service sniper. A voluntary firefighter who tried to shield his family, too, was killed in the attack.
“Without a doubt, the attempted assassination helps Trump and further diminishes Biden. It sets up a sharp contrast for many voters between a courageous and defiant challenger and a weak and indecisive incumbent,” said Sadanand Dhume, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute based in Washington, DC. Republican strategists will continue to drive home the point that while Trump beat back a semiautomatic rifle, Biden finds it hard to take even a flight of stairs. The president now enters Air Force One through the rear using the shorter stairs there, and avoids the 18-foot climb at the front.
J.D. Vance and Usha Chilukuri | AP
Clearly, the shooting and Trump’s response could determine the voting preferences of at least a section of the independent and undecided voters. “Such incidents can make people more concerned about safety. Voters could start caring more about national security and law enforcement,” said Venugopal Gopalakrishna-Remani, who teaches at the University of Texas at Tyler. “It could influence their voting choices.” Even a marginal pro-Trump swing in key battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, where the shooting took place, could have disastrous consequences for Biden. The latest New York Times opinion poll from the Keystone State (taken after the presidential debate, but before the shooting) gives Trump a 4 per cent advantage over Biden (48 per cent to 44 per cent). In 2020, Biden won the state’s 20 electoral votes by just 1.17 per cent.
The shooting may help Trump deflect criticism that he is a threat to democracy. It allows him to paint himself as a victim of extreme political rhetoric. Almost immediately after the shooting, the far right social media space was getting swamped with allegations that it was orchestrated by the ‘deep state’ or even the White House. Already, the Secret Service faces questions about security lapses during the July 13 rally. “If the Secret Service is shown to be guilty of flagrant mismanagement of the event, that could rebound against Biden,” said Donald Camp, adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.
The attack has already taken away a powerful campaign tool for the Democrats as Trump allies point out that it is their candidate who is, in fact, the victim of extreme political rhetoric and vilification campaigns. And, nothing stops them from using the July 13 attack as a counter narrative to the January 6 Capitol Hill riots in 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters disrupted a joint session of the US Congress convened to certify the 2020 presidential election results.
The shooting has forced Democrats to recalibrate their attacks against Trump. As the Republicans take the moral high ground, the Democrats are being forced to put their campaign on hold temporarily as they work to cool the political temperature. “Much of the campaign against Trump has hinged on characterising him as a man of unscrupulousness and violence, a convicted felon, and a threat to democracy. But it will now become much harder to communicate these charges to the public―especially to swing voters,” said Mohamed Zeeshan, foreign affairs researcher and author based in Washington, DC. “You cannot foulmouth a man so easily after he has just escaped an assassination attempt. As Biden himself has said, they will have to lower the temperature.”
Speaking to Lester Holt of the NBC News on July 15, in his first interview after the Butler shooting, Biden expressed regret about some of his political rhetoric targeting Trump. He said it was a mistake to say that he wanted to put Trump in a bullseye―a comment he had made during a private call with Democratic donors a week before. “The shooting has definitely complicated the Democrats’ plan. The Biden campaign has already pulled down attack ads against Trump,” said Zeeshan. “It is unclear when or how they are going to be able to go back to attacking Trump.”
The argument that Trump represents a unique threat to democracy is unlikely to stop. But the rhetorical excesses used to make the point would be toned down, said Dhume. “Overblown comparisons of Trump with Hitler will become less acceptable to the American public,” he said.
Ironically, the attack has given Biden a respite from the growing calls from within his own party to step down. As the Democrats try to project an image of national unity, it is unlikely that they will push for an upheaval, at least for the next few days. Even a brief pause in the “remove Biden campaign” works in the president’s favour. “The longer he remains the presumptive nominee, the harder it will be to dislodge him,” said Camp. “With attention focused on the attack on Trump, it will be difficult for the Democratic dissidents to achieve their goal of replacing Biden, and it will be easier for him to run out the clock until the Democratic convention in August.” And that works perfectly for Trump as he prefers to battle it out with Biden, instead of having to reorganise his campaign if a new Democratic nominee comes up.
Finally, the shooting completes Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party. All prominent holdouts, including Nikki Haley, his final major challenger in the primaries, have fallen in line. The Republicans appear completely united behind Trump, while the Democrats are unable to even agree on their presidential candidate.
On July 15, Trump made a triumphant entry at the Republican national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where he was formally anointed as the official presidential nominee of the party. Earlier in the day, a federal judge dismissed the case against him on mishandling sensitive government documents, giving his campaign a major relief.
Trump capped his perfect day by naming Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate. He picked the right moment to anoint his ideological successor who could take forward his brand of politics and his populist legacy. Trump’s surging popularity offered him the luxury to discard two other candidates on his shortlist―Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota―and choose Vance, despite him being a fierce critic in the past. The 39-year-old now operates with the zeal of the convert, and his selection is likely to energise the Trump base even further.
As vice presidential candidate, Vance leads the generational shift in the Republican Party. His wife, Usha Chilukuri, is the daughter of Indian immigrants, and his elevation could offer India yet another friendly voice in Washington. “Given Trump’s affinity for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both men should be willing to overlook some of the two countries’ differing perspectives,” said Camp. “Trump would almost certainly downplay American concerns about India’s continued relationship with Russia. He would focus on confronting China and further cut commercial ties, benefiting India. New Delhi may not want to applaud Trump’s more extreme anti-China policies publicly, but they could well be privately pleased and rubbing their hands in glee.”
ADVANTAGE TRUMP
* Surviving the shooting augments his image as a fighter
* Improves standing among swing voters
* Hampers Democrats from vilifying him
* Helps neutralise his fascist image
* Aids takeover of Republican Party
* Helps him by keeping Biden in the race
* Worsens Biden’s image as a weak president