Dr Waiel Awwad
WHEN Bashar al-Assad’s government fell, the moment was celebrated as a triumph of justice over oppression. Crowds flooded the streets, tearing down statues and chanting slogans of freedom. For years, they endured. Families torn apart, economy crippled by corruption and freedoms snuffed out under the iron fist of repression. This is the story of a society reclaiming its identity, struggling to build a future from the rubble.
WHAT LED TO THE FALL?
Internal dissent and uprising
This was fuelled by religious sentiment from across the border, where regional powers exploited sectarian divisions to advance their own agenda. This external influence amplified internal grievances, turning local dissent into a larger proxy struggle.
Prolonged conflict and loss of territory
Syria faced multiple fronts against rebel groups and terrorist organisations such as the IS, Al Qaeda and Kurdish forces, leading to a loss of control over large swathes of territory.
Weakened defence forces
A key factor behind the growing dissent within the Syrian army was the denial of basic rights and financial support for soldiers who were struggling to survive in harsh economic conditions. Meanwhile, fighters supported by neighbouring countries, including mercenaries and rebel groups, were receiving hefty financial support. The unfair distribution of resources fuelled discontent, contributing to defections and weakening the cohesion of the army.
Another critical factor was the regime’s refusal to modernise its military. The Syrian government largely relied on outdated equipment and tactics, which demoralised the troops. While Iranian and Russian military aid provided short-term relief, it also made the Syrian regime reliant on foreign powers, weakening national autonomy and eroding confidence among its military.
Economic conditions
No doubt, the economic sanctions imposed on Syria played a significant role in worsening the livelihood of the people. These sanctions severely restricted Syria’s ability to trade, access vital resources and receive international financial support. As a result, the economy suffered, leading to high unemployment, inflation and a lack of basic necessities such as food, medicine and fuel. The Syrian citizen bore the brunt as wages stagnated while the cost of living continued to rise. This economic decline, combined with the government’s inability or unwillingness to address the needs of the population, fuelled frustration and resentment. This contributed to the growing dissent and ultimately the unrest that would spiral into the ongoing conflict.
FOREIGN INTERVENTION
The brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrations escalated dissent into an armed rebellion, creating an opportunity for foreign powers to exploit the internal crisis. Players such as Turkey, the US, Israel and the EU and some of the Gulf states provided funding, arms and logistical support to various opposition groups. Turkey played a pivotal role from the outset, providing support to armed groups and granting mercenaries from across the globe a haven in Idlib, effectively placing them under Turkish protection. Groups like the IS and Jabhat al-Nusra capitalised on the chaos, creating parallel threats to the regime while attracting global attention.
The Donald Trump factor played a pivotal role in shaping the course of events in the Middle East. Elected with a promise to end America’s involvement in longstanding conflicts, Trump aimed to withdraw US troops from Iraq and Syria, marking a shift in US foreign policy. His ‘America First’ agenda emphasised reducing military interventions abroad and focusing on domestic priorities.
The new Syria is facing major challenges after dissolving the army, and the inability to regain full control of its territory might lead to a de facto partition of Syria; there could be separate Kurdish-controlled areas supported by the US. Now Syria is under the influence of Turkey, reflecting Ankara’s agenda.
Several scenarios could emerge for the future of the region, heavily influenced by evolving geopolitical and internal dynamics. Among these is the controversial idea of an “Israeli project for Greater Israel”, often referenced in debates about Israel’s regional ambitions. This notion―rooted in historical, religious and ideological narratives―suggests territorial expansion that could encompass lands from the Nile to the Euphrates, including parts of Sinai, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and one-third of Saudi Arabia. The incursion of Israeli troops closer to Damascus would be in violation of the 1974 truce between the two countries.
US policies often align with Israeli interests, with overlapping elements and differing objectives rooted in their unique political, strategic and ideological goals. But the implication is devastating for the region. There will be prolonged instability due to external interventions, fragmentation of states and rising sectarian tensions, displacement and suffering of local populations and finally there will be resistance movements that further destabilise the region.
The Iranian project will face challenges and the ‘Axis of Resistance’(a coalition of Iran-supported groups that work to counter US and Israel influence) suffers a big blow after the fall of Syria and the spillover will be felt in Lebanon, Iraq and even Iran. Russia and Iran will be the biggest losers in the Syrian fiasco, but Israel is the sole beneficiary.
Whether these scenarios remain theoretical or begin to influence actual policies, the region’s future will depend on the ability of its nations to resist external pressures, foster regional unity and pursue inclusive political solutions that prioritise the aspirations of their people.
The shifting dynamics in Syria have profound implications for the Middle East. The jubilation of the moment, while deserved, is only the first step. The people of Syria must channel their shared hope into building a nation that reflects their aspirations. Their journey forward is fraught with difficulty, but it is also rich with the promise of a Syria reborn.
The writer is a senior journalist and West Asia strategist